$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bobbotov', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', '
')I already know that definition, but my question is what is the author's definition for PO.
PeakOil is You
Why the World Is Not About to Run Out of Oil (article)
Re: Why the World Is Not About to Run Out of Oil (article)
by nth » Fri 05 May 2006, 14:40:42
Anything else means the author doesn't know what he is talking about.
I guess you don't follow the debate between experts over PO.
If you do, then please concentrate on the part about oil production hitting undulating plateau aka peak production. For the most part, they mean the same thing. The only difference seems to be the decline part. Undulating plateau just means no big drop, and the peak might be hit several times.
Would you argue that undulating plateau is different than Peak Oil?
Would you argue that peak production hit by non OPEC in 2010 or 2015 means no PO?
This is the part that I am confused.
Many of these pro-Undulating plateau argue that new sources of energy will replace oil. Does this matter? Does believing in PO mean not believing in ability to replace oil?
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Re: Why the World Is Not About to Run Out of Oil (article)
by Bobbotov » Fri 05 May 2006, 14:59:07
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', '
')
I guess you don't follow the debate between experts over PO.
If you do, then please concentrate on the part about oil production hitting undulating plateau aka peak production. For the most part, they mean the same thing. The only difference seems to be the decline part. Undulating plateau just means no big drop, and the peak might be hit several times.
Would you argue that undulating plateau is different than Peak Oil?
Would you argue that peak production hit by non OPEC in 2010 or 2015 means no PO?
This is the part that I am confused.
Many of these pro-Undulating plateau argue that new sources of energy will replace oil. Does this matter? Does believing in PO mean not believing in ability to replace oil?
')
I guess you don't follow the debate between experts over PO.
If you do, then please concentrate on the part about oil production hitting undulating plateau aka peak production. For the most part, they mean the same thing. The only difference seems to be the decline part. Undulating plateau just means no big drop, and the peak might be hit several times.
Would you argue that undulating plateau is different than Peak Oil?
Would you argue that peak production hit by non OPEC in 2010 or 2015 means no PO?
This is the part that I am confused.
Many of these pro-Undulating plateau argue that new sources of energy will replace oil. Does this matter? Does believing in PO mean not believing in ability to replace oil?
Plateaus are not the issue. Various oil stocks will reach their respective peak before others but the issue is the Peak of ALL oil regardless. If there are two oil fields - one of which starts drilling at 10 am and peaks at 11 am and another starts at 11am and peaks at noon taking the aggregate of the two means that PO was reached at 11:30am for the collective of both fields though one was already depleted at that time and the other was just started.
Considering the principle behind PO has been prognisticated for over half a century and notwithstanding the fact that NO ONE knows exactly to the gallon how much oil is really left and accessible, the effect of these various plateaus is irrelevent because the demand is increasing regardless. What this means is that if the demand cannot be met then it makes no difference how much is left because the ever spiraling demand will cause the price to skyrocket to the point where it is no longer a viable form of energy on that basis alone.
Who knows how long it will take to replace oil with alternatives to the extent that the world as we know it will even exist. If the pace of either oil depletion or the price of oil is such that it effects the ability of any society to continue to exist as it once was or to transition to an alternative before all hell breaks loose is the central point.
Believing in PO does not mean disbelief in alternatives. This is all about timing more than anything. The world has squandered a non renewable resource and is squandering the time it needs to find a reasonable replacement before the respective societies collapse from the cost of keeping the infrastructure going. Besides, many things could have been done long before any of this just because it is prudent. But because the price of oil has been so cheap and people have sought the path of least resistance those alternatives have never been fully exploited. We will be caught short before oil is depleted because the price will be unbearable. Look at the pains for oil going up fifty dollars per barrel over the last six years. If it goes up to twice that in the next six I can guarantee that the necessary pervasive alternatives needed to keep any civilization alive at the level they are based on will fall seriously short of the goal. And this will happen long before all oil peaks in the aggregate sense.
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Bobbotov - Peat
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Re: Why the World Is Not About to Run Out of Oil (article)
by nth » Fri 05 May 2006, 15:35:36
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bobbotov', '
')Plateaus are not the issue. Various oil stocks will reach their respective peak before others but the issue is the Peak of ALL oil regardless. If there are two oil fields - one of which starts drilling at 10 am and peaks at 11 am and another starts at 11am and peaks at noon taking the aggregate of the two means that PO was reached at 11:30am for the collective of both fields though one was already depleted at that time and the other was just started.
Considering the principle behind PO has been prognisticated for over half a century and notwithstanding the fact that NO ONE knows exactly to the gallon how much oil is really left and accessible, the effect of these various plateaus is irrelevent because the demand is increasing regardless. What this means is that if the demand cannot be met then it makes no difference how much is left because the ever spiraling demand will cause the price to skyrocket to the point where it is no longer a viable form of energy on that basis alone.
Who knows how long it will take to replace oil with alternatives to the extent that the world as we know it will even exist. If the pace of either oil depletion or the price of oil is such that it effects the ability of any society to continue to exist as it once was or to transition to an alternative before all hell breaks loose is the central point.
Believing in PO does not mean disbelief in alternatives. This is all about timing more than anything. The world has squandered a non renewable resource and is squandering the time it needs to find a reasonable replacement before the respective societies collapse from the cost of keeping the infrastructure going. Besides, many things could have been done long before any of this just because it is prudent. But because the price of oil has been so cheap and people have sought the path of least resistance those alternatives have never been fully exploited. We will be caught short before oil is depleted because the price will be unbearable. Look at the pains for oil going up fifty dollars per barrel over the last six years. If it goes up to twice that in the next six I can guarantee that the necessary pervasive alternatives needed to keep any civilization alive at the level they are based on will fall seriously short of the goal. And this will happen long before all oil peaks in the aggregate sense.
')Plateaus are not the issue. Various oil stocks will reach their respective peak before others but the issue is the Peak of ALL oil regardless. If there are two oil fields - one of which starts drilling at 10 am and peaks at 11 am and another starts at 11am and peaks at noon taking the aggregate of the two means that PO was reached at 11:30am for the collective of both fields though one was already depleted at that time and the other was just started.
Considering the principle behind PO has been prognisticated for over half a century and notwithstanding the fact that NO ONE knows exactly to the gallon how much oil is really left and accessible, the effect of these various plateaus is irrelevent because the demand is increasing regardless. What this means is that if the demand cannot be met then it makes no difference how much is left because the ever spiraling demand will cause the price to skyrocket to the point where it is no longer a viable form of energy on that basis alone.
Who knows how long it will take to replace oil with alternatives to the extent that the world as we know it will even exist. If the pace of either oil depletion or the price of oil is such that it effects the ability of any society to continue to exist as it once was or to transition to an alternative before all hell breaks loose is the central point.
Believing in PO does not mean disbelief in alternatives. This is all about timing more than anything. The world has squandered a non renewable resource and is squandering the time it needs to find a reasonable replacement before the respective societies collapse from the cost of keeping the infrastructure going. Besides, many things could have been done long before any of this just because it is prudent. But because the price of oil has been so cheap and people have sought the path of least resistance those alternatives have never been fully exploited. We will be caught short before oil is depleted because the price will be unbearable. Look at the pains for oil going up fifty dollars per barrel over the last six years. If it goes up to twice that in the next six I can guarantee that the necessary pervasive alternatives needed to keep any civilization alive at the level they are based on will fall seriously short of the goal. And this will happen long before all oil peaks in the aggregate sense.
In other words, you are claiming CERA's view is the same as PO view. They believe in finite oil and that oil demand will be reduced due to high prices, while alternatives will be more attractive as the alternatives will be lower priced.
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nth - Heavy Crude
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