by rockdoc123 » Tue 25 Oct 2005, 18:26:56
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')lah, blah, blah, blah, blah.
READ: Oil Companies producing less than before.
Not potential, not maybe, not coulda-shoulda-woulda.
Well if you changed that to
some oil companies producing less you would be right...otherwise not.
To take a more in-depth look at this I put together info from annual reports for 43 multi-nationals and independents. The numbers plotted are Total liquids produced (oil and condensate). Note that Total numbers include various subsidiaries of companies like Exxon whereas the Consolidated values include only the Parent.
Note that for the Top 10 producers (as of end 2004) only 2, Chevron and Shell show drop in total production year over year from 2002. This lost production is made up by the majority of the 43 that showed increases over the period 2000 - 2004.
I also broke down BP into production by country over the period 2000-2004. As LadyRuby surmised the main increase in production was through the acquisition of TNK....all of the increase in production was in Russia and former CIS. The decrease at Chevron is not surprising either. In a study conducted in 2003 by Wood Mackenzie Chevron was found to be the only multi-national that had actually destroyed coroporate value during the period 1996-2003 through exploration. Because they were so unsucessful at exploration they were forced into the Texaco merger and then this year into the Unocal merger. Chevron has been a bit of a dismal story in terms of home grown exploration given that most of their pre-Texaco production was gained through the acqusition of Gulf Corp.
Contrary to the multinationals who seem to be growing through acqusitions there are a number of Independants who show year on year production increases through exploration, albeit at lower overall numbers (eg: Anadarko).
There were a couple of problems I ran into....for example I have no year end 2004 number for Yukos so I kept it the same as 2003. As well I was unable to find reliable production information for Petronas Carigali, Sonatrach etc. Looking at country production information over these same periods might help to fill in that information.