[MacG]

The scary stuff I see is: Politics.

Apparently, just a few percent of the oil is traded on NYMEX and such, the wast majority is exchanged in long term agreements at fixed prices. Ministeries, departments and high political leaders make those deals.

Politicans can promise all possible things to other politicans. They just might have engaged in promises without foundation in Physical Reality.

Market Economy Theorists have promised that we will have rationing by price (let the poor freeze in the dark), but if politicians have made promises to eachoter without foundation in Physical Reality, we might encounter sudden, random and surprising signs stating "Out of Gas".