[johnmarkos]

Oil and other commodities are trading at or near historic highs. The economy is booming -- last quarter the U.S. GDP expanded at a near 5 percent annual rate.

According to polls, most Americans think that the country is moving in the wrong direction. Employment numbers look great. If you're looking for work, it's probably not too hard to find a job.

The housing market might be peaking -- nobody's certain yet. A few years ago, is this the kind of economic environment you expected to see when oil hit $75/barrel?

[TexasEx2006]

In Houston, the economy is as hot as it's ever been. But it's always like this when the bbl is high.

[clueless]

We are not at the decline of anything yet - We are at the peak of everything.

I stole that from Kunstler.

Albert Bartlet said in one of his GPM recordings that the euphoria is always at is highest just before the end (my paraphrase).

[Torion]

We do look like we're in good shape with the stuff you pointed out.

BUT what kind of jobs are we getting compared to the job we had 15 or even 10 years ago? Jobs that pay the minimum wage or half of what wer considered good jobs were? Jobs with no health insurance options? Service jobs not manufacturing jobs is what our economy has more of since we've shipped so much manufacturing overseas where costs are less.

Booming commodities sounds good but gasoline still costs $3.00 or more at the pump for people who buy it.

And there is the issue of the high national debt and the high personal debt that so many of us have--including me!

The president may sound euphoric about the American economy but I'm not sure how many individual workers are suffering from it with him.

[johnmarkos]

Good point -- median wages have been stagnant since the beginning of this decade. In fact, they've been stagnant since the 70s, except for a small rise in the late 90s.

Executive compensation, on the other hand, has risen in that period.

[Kingcoal]

America was booming during the Vietnam war also and people thought we were moving in the wrong direction then.

Maybe we just all need to get a life?

[FoxV]

you also have to keep in mind that the inflation number (used in the GDP calculation) is a complete numbers hack compared with real inflation.

This allows all the mis-stated inflation to be rolled into the GDP number.

so if the official inflation is 3% and real inflation is typically 2.5 Times higher at 7.5%. This make GDP growth appear 4.5% more than it actually is.

hmm, so Real GDP would then be 0%. Next thing needed is to subtract out the debt accumulation and then you would have the real growth of the US economy (I'm going to guess around -3%)

[johnmarkos]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FoxV', 'h')mm, so Real GDP would then be 0%. Next thing needed is to subtract out the debt accumulation and then you would have the real growth of the US economy (I'm going to guess around -3%)

[jaws]

Feeling like a boom is exactly what inflationism is supposed to do. It keeps feeling like a boom until people realize they're all getting scammed on their investments, they've all been getting poorer, then the boom turns into a bust.

When people stop buying bonds at 5% yield you'll find out what kind of situation the U.S. is really in. The dollar has been freefalling against all currencies this week. The time isn't far.

[Euric]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kingcoal', 'A')merica was booming during the Vietnam war also and people thought we were moving in the wrong direction then.

Maybe we just all need to get a life?

[Chaparral]

The Los Angeles area appears to be booming. My tenants seem to be hiring nearly two dozen new employees and some of them have to shop for space with other landlords as I scarcely have even a vacant broom closet. I see help wanted signs up everywhere I go. Commercial vacancies are dropping. Residental highrises are going up and the number of 100K plus cars seems to be up in my area. If it's a bright and sunny weekend I'm guaranteed to spot Ferraris, Lambos and the like in my area and the number has been rising for some time now.

There are several things that have popped up in 2006 however that give me pause. 1) I've seen a huge increase in the number of out of state plates; that means folks are migrating in from somewhere else looking for you know what. 2) I'm starting to find old coins like wheat pennies and the odd 1964 dime in my change. I've observed over the last 25 years or so that whenever times get hard for some folks, the number of old coins passed around as change spikes upwards. I guess people dig into old hoards and spend them. 3) I've seen more "For Rent" signs on residental rental properties-this indicates turnover which seems to correlate somewhat with short spikes in unemployment. 4) Road rage, local crime stats and general aggression seems to be on the uptick; I've noticed that sort of thing before during hiccups in the economy.