[dinopello]

This article posted in the news section is actually quite well written

http://www.reason.com/0605/fe.rb.peak.shtml

I have noticed that many of the articles about why peak oil will not happen soon, or be a big deal do not use charts and graphs. This article talks about proven reserves but I would like them to show the chart of the middle east reserves jump and explain why that happened. Any other glaring problems with this article?

[Ancien_Opus]

I saw the same thing. The article made half sense until it fell on the URR growth sword. Until the reality sinks in that the geologist in the employment of oil industries don't just miss 30% of recoverable reserves! Yes a 3-5% growth is reasonable but to bet the farm on the OPEC URR model is just totally crazy.

The fifth time we've run out of oil is another red herring. Each of the previous four predictions where made at times when discovery was actually increasing. We have now about 20 years of decreasing discovery. We also have PC's, jet planes and interstate highways for example. This argument is nonsense, a complete distraction.

[miraculix]

One big issue that the article barely glances over - and that one is missed by almost all PO denialist - is the problem of refining capacity.

There is a tremendous lag in required investment to boost refining capacity to meet the projected demands.
Irrespective of the actual endowment of hydrocarbons, the choke point is and will remain refining.
I have yet to see any projected increase in production to meet future demand matched with the corresponding increase in refining capacity.

The often cited USGS study offer backing data on all of their key claims, but refining capacity - it is simply ASSUMED to be adequate in the future.

At this juncture I would like to ask the valued fellow Peakoilers to direct me to hard data that proofs that we will be able to refine over 105 mbl/d in 2010? That is just 4 years out - so where are the refineries being built and expanded? Anybody?

Not barring the above, the article is very well written overall and will be convincing to the casual reader.
Just the right lullaby the panem-et-circenses crowd needs to be soothed back into the happy-go-spending life style.

One thing that struck me odd though is the axis-of-energy-miliants that he conjures up. It is quite a mouthful to throw Venezuela in one basket with Russia and Iran. Come on!

Maybe Chavez is not too far off with his claims that the US could be planning to invade VZL....

[Bobbotov]

If Peak Oil was real I would expect a couple of things to happen. First, the price would go up, second the amount produced would plateau, third the US would invade and occupy a middle eastern country or two, fourth depleted oil fields would be springing up all over, and fifth oil companies would make huge profits just before their golden goose died.

Since none of that is really happening it must be a fiction.

[PolestaR]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bobbotov', 'I')f Peak Oil was real I would expect a couple of things to happen. First, the price would go up, second the amount produced would plateau, third the US would invade and occupy a middle eastern country or two, fourth depleted oil fields would be springing up all over, and fifth oil companies would make huge profits just before their golden goose died.

Since none of that is really happening it must be a fiction.