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Something postive on the other side of Hubbert's Peak.

Discussions related to the physiological and psychological effects of peak oil on our members and future generations.

Something postive on the other side of Hubbert's Peak.

Unread postby Ibon » Mon 24 Apr 2006, 22:30:36

It seems a daunting task for our modern society to transform to a more sustainable paradigm in its energy use. The asset inertia alone in many industries like the automotive industry will require a huge re-engineering of our economy and the workforce. In the best of scenarios we can expect economic disruptions during this transition that will test our modern culture’s ability to adapt. That adaptation will require a return to more physical labor and to more basic work that can still be witnessed in many developing countries today where farmers and craftsman still do extensive physical labor. Poor EROEI of most of the scalable alternatives to oil is a further certainty that we can look to the future having to do a lot more physical work than we have grown accustomed to.

Modern society breeds obesity and depression in many people. On the individual level there are many reasons but on the macro level one can suspect that our consumer culture and the automobile certainly have contributed to our poor mental and physical health collectively. Many modern jobs are in the service sector where there is little to no personal gratification in the work being done. Physically and mentally deadening. Pushing papers of flipping burgers has little in common to the organic connections that farmers and craftsmen a few generations back experienced. Our collective culture is framed within the work people do and the direction during the past 80 years to a more abstract, organically disconnected, uniform and unfulfilling work certainly has contributed to a more disconnected fearful collective culture.

In light of the above you almost have to welcome the upcoming consequences of peak oil as it will necessitate a re-engineering of our culture back to more organic jobs and work that will certainly improve our society’s physical and mental health. We will collectively have to experience the cold turkey and getting through the withdrawal systems in the meantime may be quite violent. We may resist like the addict and opt for war. Why are recovering drug addicts so often physically restrained? Rationally weaning ourselves from our oil addiction and getting back to the physical and mental benefits of doing more physical labor and jobs that are more organically gratifying will happen initially against our wills but afterwards we may look back and wonder at the madness of who we were.
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Re: Something postive on the other side of Hubbert's Peak.

Unread postby gego » Mon 24 Apr 2006, 23:25:09

Now this is someone looking for the best out of a bad situation.

Population of 6.5 billion going down to 1 billion over, maybe 100 years, and the small shinging light is that for the survivors, they will feel more gradified about their work?

I think the history of the world is that life was mean and short, and work was drudgery, and here we have someone thinking that dawn to dusk physical labor will be more a welcome change; I think not. What have you been smoking?
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Re: Something postive on the other side of Hubbert's Peak.

Unread postby Ibon » Tue 25 Apr 2006, 02:16:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gego', 'I') think the history of the world is that life was mean and short, and work was drudgery, and here we have someone thinking that dawn to dusk physical labor will be more a welcome change; I think not. What have you been smoking?


The sheer thought of a life of more physical labor and your already going cold turkey on me. Actually your response is very instructive as to what perhaps many people view as the past and what they would face if forced to live in a powered down simpler society. It would explain the fear people have today. Believe me, I do have compassion for those brought up only knowing modern suburbia. But I have spent a third of my life (I'm 50 years old) in developing countries in Asia and Latin America, many of those years in rural settings. None of what I experienced fits your description of work as drudgery and life being mean and short. You have little idea of the humility, peace of mind and contentment that still exists in communities where people are still working their land or in trades that directly support their local economies with tangible goods. But I'm not painting a Utopia here. When hardships happen or disease strikes a family that can't afford a cure then pain and suffering and sometimes death can happen prematurely. But the passing through of these tragedies is done with a grace dignity and humility that few of modern westerners, particularly in the USA, with their sense of self entitlement, can even begin to fathom.

It's also true that most of these cultures would throw away what they got and go chasing the American dream of consumerism if given the chance. But this is not because they are throwing away a life of drudgery and meanness. It's more because they are being seduced by an illusion that our grandfathers followed as well. It's an illusion running out of fuel fortunately.

I wont argue how far reduced from 6.5 billion we'll go in the next 100 years. Nobody knows. What seems most likely is that whatever equilibrium reached in human population those that remain will be doing more physical labor than today. And I would venture to say having a state of mind far less fearful than most modern humans have today. The less you have to lose the more free you are. Just as the opposite is true for example in America today. The more you have to lose the more fearful you are. It does make sense that the 5% percent of humans consuming the most resources have to be the most afraid and dilusional because they have the most to lose. Nowhere is fear so great as in America today. I can promise you that there are very few people in developing countries that experience the existential fear that the average American fears today. Fear is somehow related to a body that does very little physical work and to a mind that obsesses on security.

By pointing out a few positives doesn't mean I have my head in the sand about the hardships and suffering ahead. On the other hand our soft modern lives that avoid suffering and pain and physical labour perhaps cause us more mental suffering than we realize.
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Re: Something postive on the other side of Hubbert's Peak.

Unread postby americandream » Tue 25 Apr 2006, 04:14:54

I dunno whether it was as bad as some folks think...as a kid, I knew an ol chap in Orkney who had handed down knowledge of life before the enclosures by the landlords....and it sounded fairly equal and fair....till the Lairds moved in.
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Re: Something postive on the other side of Hubbert's Peak.

Unread postby mentmush » Tue 25 Apr 2006, 07:50:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'g')ego wrote:
I think the history of the world is that life was mean and short, and work was drudgery, and here we have someone thinking that dawn to dusk physical labor will be more a welcome change; I think not. What have you been smoking?


That is something that I've often pondered. Having spent some time in Turkey and seen the lifestyle of the rural population compared to that of the recent to the city dwellers, I have wondered what they thought they would find in the city that they didn't have in the country. They seem to have a similar workload and schedule, but live in much more squalid conditions in the city. The only answer I could find was potential. They seem to think that the city holds the potential for a better life, but few realize this potential.

I am reminded of a scene in that recent documentary about Wal-Mart (something like "Wal-Mart: the High Cost of Low Prices"). In the scene, the filmakers interviewed a woman from rural China who had moved to the city to work in the factory. She told them that her parents worked from sunrise to sunset out in the fields and that she didn't want such a hard life. The irony was that she was working an even longer day (14-16 hours). Her work was equally physical, but inside a factory instead of outside in the fields, and her life was controlled by her employer.
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Re: Something postive on the other side of Hubbert's Peak.

Unread postby Ludi » Tue 25 Apr 2006, 08:26:23

Outside of "history" - the life of civilizations - most folks have had lives not particularly filled with drudgery. Hunter-gatherers have tended to work much less than civilized folks, with more spare time and more (apparent) sense of security. This sort of life could be emulated through change to a different form of agriculture and social organization. See Permaculture.
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Re: Something postive on the other side of Hubbert's Peak.

Unread postby Doly » Tue 25 Apr 2006, 08:34:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mentmush', 'T')hey seem to have a similar workload and schedule, but live in much more squalid conditions in the city. The only answer I could find was potential. They seem to think that the city holds the potential for a better life, but few realize this potential.


How true. People sometimes exchange what they have for a promise of something better, even when the promise doesn't materialize.

The tragedy of peak oil is that a lot of promises aren't going to materialize.
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Re: Something postive on the other side of Hubbert's Peak.

Unread postby Ibon » Tue 25 Apr 2006, 11:59:35

The grass in greener on the other side in this case needs to be modified to the grass is perceived to be a kaleidascope of colours on the other side but once you get there it turns brown!

We left an agriarian lifestyle behind for the promises of modern consumerism for many reasons. Some reasons certainly have to do with following the path of least resistance and preferring to do less physical work and toiling on the soil. But a big part of this movement was the value system that held modern consumerism as desirable and rural agrarian life as dreary and boring.

I am curious what will happen in the cultural evolution going forward when our value system swings back and perceives a more agrarian organic integrated local community lifestyle as futuristic and sexy?
Some might think it is far fetched to see our culture evolving this way but being forced to exist with far less available energy will certainly influence our cultural values and what is perceived as modern.

The days are numbered that a wasteful consumerism will be associated with the values of modern life.
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Re: Something postive on the other side of Hubbert's Peak.

Unread postby Pops » Tue 25 Apr 2006, 12:59:51

Don’t know nothing bout psychology so I read a tiny blurb about fear and freedom here:
http://www.sparknotes.com/psychology/pe ... tion1.html

It’s my firm (and about 3 minute-old) belief that modern man suffers more from existential freedom than fear.


In my small experience of life – I’m almost 48, I have had experience in both physical labor and small business boardroom labor.

I found the intellectual challenge (and I’ve not a huge intellect BTW) involved in city work falls far short in making up for the lack of control over ones personal direction. IOW the fact that I had so little control over my existential freedom left me little time to worry about non-existence.

I spent about 16 hours Saturday helping the neighbors put up their and some of my hay. Now granted most was done with the help of petroleum but a portion was small bales loaded and stacked by hand.

I can honestly say the satisfaction of getting that hay up equaled that of designing and building a jewelry store or producing an ad campaign – both things I’ve done in former lives.

Add to that the fact that I didn’t have to pitch an idea or set of plans to a board of directors, who, by virtue of the title on their business cards know more about my job than I would ever know and by virtue of the same title, the difference between my success and failure was based more on their mood that particular day than anything I did or said.

Don’t get the idea that I am bitter because of failure – I was fairly successful in a small time way and in fact am grateful I had the chance to experience that life - the experience makes my current life seem much sweeter.

I guess what Im getting around to is it seems modern life has, for many wage slaves, eliminated the fear but also the freedom. And it is no surprise to me that so many people feel alienated to what we term Modern Life and that PO looks to some as the Great Liberator.

(Don’t know how much sense any of that made… :) )
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Re: Something postive on the other side of Hubbert's Peak.

Unread postby Balthasar » Tue 25 Apr 2006, 15:28:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'O')utside of "history" - the life of civilizations - most folks have had lives not particularly filled with drudgery. Hunter-gatherers have tended to work much less than civilized folks, with more spare time and more (apparent) sense of security. This sort of life could be emulated through change to a different form of agriculture and social organization. See Permaculture.


Very true, after all of my research on this.

I can even speak from experience on the gathering part - it takes much less work (and WAY LESS TIME) for me to gather wild edible plants than it does for me to do garden work to earn enough money to buy an equivalent amount of the same type of food at the supermarket.
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Re: Something postive on the other side of Hubbert's Peak.

Unread postby Ibon » Tue 25 Apr 2006, 16:12:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '(')Don’t know how much sense any of that made… :) )


Made a lot of sense to me. I think there are many baby boomers who follow a trajectory similar to what you described. An idealistic youth followed by a more pragmatic adulthood in a business that drifted from the idealism of their youth and now in the last 3rd of their lives at this momentous time in history wanting to recapture that idealism in living and community that is ecologically sustainable, especially since this idealism this time round is resonating with the moment the old consumer paradigm is starting to crumble.

If this huge demographic group can pool their resources of money, time and talent into laying down the infrastructure toward a more localized sustainable economy than there can be some hope for the next 3 decades. The force to pool these people into a common vision will be helped along by some major economic disruptions coming up. Maybe we are not far away from events being able to mobilize people toward investing resources more and more in this direction.
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Re: Something postive on the other side of Hubbert's Peak.

Unread postby seldom_seen » Tue 25 Apr 2006, 16:18:35

“High technology has done us one great service: It has retaught us the delight of performing simple and primordial tasks - chopping wood, building a fire, drawing water from a spring” ~ed abbey
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Re: Something postive on the other side of Hubbert's Peak.

Unread postby Lore » Tue 25 Apr 2006, 21:56:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')ade a lot of sense to me. I think there are many baby boomers who follow a trajectory similar to what you described. An idealistic youth followed by a more pragmatic adulthood in a business that drifted from the idealism of their youth and now in the last 3rd of their lives at this momentous time in history wanting to recapture that idealism in living and community that is ecologically sustainable, especially since this idealism this time round is resonating with the moment the old consumer paradigm is starting to crumble.


That sounds like the journey of man throughout history, not necessarily the providence of modern man. And if you’re young, you are idealistic, and believe you can attain those imagined worlds. Reality however is a hard teacher and over time is strips idealism naked exposing life for what it is, one day, one month, and one year at a time. You eventually come to find out that it's never what you dreamed, for better or worse.

A little story: In my youth, when I graduated from college, I was part of a small communal group that moved back to the country. With the exception of yours truly and one other individual everyone else came from the city. We had sixty acres and a huge old farm house. We dug in the soil, grew gardens, had a barn full of live stock and fields of hay that we brought in during the hot summer. Picked apples from the ancient orchard and road horses up and down the dirt roads. Sounds romantic yet it was work from sun up to sun down. Something I was use to doing having come from a farm, but something they soon found tiresome and boring. While their idealism led them to the farm they could never quite get the feel of the place. For me it was instinctually home like. They missed their friends who were quickly moving on beyond them in the big city business world as well as all the amenities suburbia could quickly offer.

In the end it was just me and the one other country soul. I came to realize that it is much easier to take the boy out of the country then to take the city out of the boy. Since then my journey has taken me as well to the corporate world, suburbia, and the big city.

I don't necessarily believe that the sustainable future has to push everyone back into unfamiliar territory in which there will be huge amounts of resentment. In fact, at the very least, the resistance to do so will drive people to keep as much of the future like the present. Mayberry is gone, and well it should be, no one really lived there anyway. Better to replace this world with one we can all agree to live and prosper in.
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Re: Something postive on the other side of Hubbert's Peak.

Unread postby Ibon » Tue 25 Apr 2006, 23:57:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', '
')
For me it was instinctually home like. They missed their friends who were quickly moving on beyond them in the big city business world as well as all the amenities suburbia could quickly offer...


I can relate well to how this was for you compared to the more urban participants. It's easy to imagine your small communal farm and the idealism behind it. Looking back it's so important to put this in the context of the times. Around your idealistic communal farm there was a huge collective culture that was still on the upswing of prosperity with major advances in technology through computers etc. Let's face it, back then it sure was a lot more sexy to be in the mainstream world instead of planting potatoes. You yourself with your instinctual connection to farming ended up in suburbia (so did I for 10 years). I wonder how your experiment would unfold today or in ten years from now. Would those participants be so quick to abandon the project? Will the world offer the same hope and solidity that it did back then. I think we are heading to a transition that is interesting in that experiments like your commune wont come from idealogy but from adapting to a new reality. But I agree it wont all be in an agriarian direction. Urban and suburban life will also change.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', '
')
I don't necessarily believe that the sustainable future has to push everyone back into unfamiliar territory in which there will be huge amounts of resentment. In fact, at the very least, the resistance to do so will drive people to keep as much of the future like the present. Mayberry is gone, and well it should be, no one really lived there anyway. Better to replace this world with one we can all agree to live and prosper in.


Personally I dislike nostalgia particularly for something that never did exist. I do think however that everyone will be pushed, initially against their wills but the external forces doing the pushing will through time mold a new culture and a new economy that will be driven with far less energy. That culture cant help but learn to be more self reliant and less parasitic. This is not the idealist in me wishing this but rather the realist that sees a future world with far less energy to indulge this great number of humans on the planet with frivolous wasteful consumerism.
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Re: Something postive on the other side of Hubbert's Peak.

Unread postby Pops » Wed 26 Apr 2006, 09:24:44

I see where you are going Ibon but I’m just not sure the reality of the simple life will ever hold sway over bright lights and big city – even if the lights are tallow candles.

Firstly, small town life has always been more Main Street than Mayberry and given a choice, I think young people will opt for the anonymity and perceived excitement of city life.

Second, as someone posted (NordicThroa?) the reality of the back-to-the-land movement was generation of youth looking to do exactly what kids always do, exactly the opposite of their parents wishes – but it was enabled solely because that generation was the richest and best educated in history. They didn’t go pick apples because they had to; they did it because they could.

Another problem I see is the shrinking supply of old farms as well as tools and implements suited to the small-scale outfit. I can testify to the value of buying a place that has been worked for years; regardless of condition. If one can simply look hard at an old farm they can learn quite a bit about what works and what doesn’t.

Of course given sufficient capital and knowledge, one could build from scratch, make mistakes, rebuild, redo and remodel until things worked – but again, the point here is necessity not recreation so assets and time may not be in large supply.

I’m getting OT – just ruminating I guess, kind of an overcast, dreary morning.

At any rate I understand the point. I’ve posted similar ideas before (though not as eloquently as you have) simply because it seems like the best course for those with the basic abilities. It may be years before the change pays off or it may be that it never will - who knows?

Many times as I’m building or doing something around the place I wonder if my kids or grandkids will need or want to leave the city and whether what I’m doing will be of value to them. On the one hand I hope it will be and on the other I hope they will get to make the choice.

So I'll end with the lyrics that have been in my head since the first line of this post - Jimmy Reed I think :)

Bright light, big city, gone to my baby's head
Whoa, bright lights, big city, gone to my baby's head
I tried to tell the woman, but she don't believe a word I said
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Re: Something postive on the other side of Hubbert's Peak.

Unread postby Ibon » Wed 26 Apr 2006, 18:15:00

I can't get this thought out of my head that once the status quo really fails to provide a basis of support for peoples dreams than the status quo quickly dissolves. Modern consumerism that seems so entrenched and solid only remains so as long as the dream is intact. When the infrastructure of our society can no longer support the dream then ...puff..out goes the consumer candle rather quickly. Our dreams, like global warming, have tipping points!
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Re: Something postive on the other side of Hubbert's Peak.

Unread postby JoeCoal » Thu 27 Apr 2006, 00:23:15

Throughout my teens and twenties I did everything I could to avoid doing what I was “supposed” to do – College, Marriage, Kids, Career, Car, House, etc, etc.

I knew it was all bullshit. I played Jazz Fusion and partied like there was no tomorrow. I didn't believe there was a tomorrow – at first, because the Ruskies were going to nuke us, then because of global warming, and now... well, we all know that one.

I didn't know why it was all bullshit until discovering Peak Oil, and like so many others, it was a Matrix-like Blue Pill / Red Pill experience.

Is there something positive on the other side of Hubbert's Peak? Perhaps a way of living that does not call for another way of living. No rat race. No more bullshit.
Good night, and good luck...
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Re: Something postive on the other side of Hubbert's Peak.

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 14 Jun 2016, 11:00:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', 'I')t seems a daunting task for our modern society to transform to a more sustainable paradigm in its energy use. The asset inertia alone in many industries like the automotive industry will require a huge re-engineering of our economy and the workforce. In the best of scenarios we can expect economic disruptions during this transition that will test our modern culture’s ability to adapt. That adaptation will require a return to more physical labor and to more basic work that can still be witnessed in many developing countries today where farmers and craftsman still do extensive physical labor. Poor EROEI of most of the scalable alternatives to oil is a further certainty that we can look to the future having to do a lot more physical work than we have grown accustomed to.

Modern society breeds obesity and depression in many people. On the individual level there are many reasons but on the macro level one can suspect that our consumer culture and the automobile certainly have contributed to our poor mental and physical health collectively. Many modern jobs are in the service sector where there is little to no personal gratification in the work being done. Physically and mentally deadening. Pushing papers of flipping burgers has little in common to the organic connections that farmers and craftsmen a few generations back experienced. Our collective culture is framed within the work people do and the direction during the past 80 years to a more abstract, organically disconnected, uniform and unfulfilling work certainly has contributed to a more disconnected fearful collective culture.

In light of the above you almost have to welcome the upcoming consequences of peak oil as it will necessitate a re-engineering of our culture back to more organic jobs and work that will certainly improve our society’s physical and mental health. We will collectively have to experience the cold turkey and getting through the withdrawal systems in the meantime may be quite violent. We may resist like the addict and opt for war. Why are recovering drug addicts so often physically restrained? Rationally weaning ourselves from our oil addiction and getting back to the physical and mental benefits of doing more physical labor and jobs that are more organically gratifying will happen initially against our wills but afterwards we may look back and wonder at the madness of who we were.


Sure you eliminate the obesity epidemic among the poor and middle class in one fell swoop, by eliminating sugar and excess calories and requiring a lot more physical labor. Poof, you either get in shape or you die, and you quite possibly starve to death even if nothing else kills you.

But the 15-20 percent of people in the wealthy countries who are alive today because of medical prescriptions dying is by far the most likely result. Then you add in the people who sink into true depression because they are losing loved ones, or do not know how to cope without their electric device addiction being fulfilled and you have a pool of people who are at best quietly dying and at worst useless eaters who consume precious resources in a time of scarcity.

How does it all end? The other side might be okay for those who pass through the bottleneck and their descendants, but the bottleneck itself is going to be harsh. Nature, red of tooth and claw, has no mercy for the fools or the luckless.
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To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: Something postive on the other side of Hubbert's Peak.

Unread postby Ibon » Wed 15 Jun 2016, 08:33:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '
')
How does it all end? The other side might be okay for those who pass through the bottleneck and their descendants, but the bottleneck itself is going to be harsh. Nature, red of tooth and claw, has no mercy for the fools or the luckless.


The indolence associated with the abundance of the fossil fuel age has removed a certain integrity from our species. This loss of integrity is reflected on many fronts. The bottle neck which will be harsh will weed out a lot of this indolence. This is not a bad thing.

It's funny reading back over this thread from almost 10 years ago. I was already back then looking at the positives.

That is why I am a lot of fun to be around. !! :razz:
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Re: Something postive on the other side of Hubbert's Peak.

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 15 Jun 2016, 09:48:53

Sometimes fear of the bottleneck outweighs the knowledge that our species will be much better off afterwards than we are today. In my younger days I would presume to think I had a pretty good chance of seeing the other side and learning lessons on the way through. As I grow older the odds of seeing the other side decrease each year. Most of the time I do not let it bother me, but every week or ten days something will happen and I will see that things are getting closer inch by inch to the start of the bottleneck. Rationally I know this, emotionally it stirs up fears and regrets.
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Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
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To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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