[halcyon]

If you could make your friends (assume not knowing of Peak Oil) to read one article on PO, max 10 pages, not requiring a unisveristy degree in any one field to understand, what would it be?

I've read tons of pages, rants, blogs, overall articles and even some technical explanations, but to me none of them approach what I'm after:

- explain to the layman
- what is is
- why it's inevitable (oil production peaking, fossils in general)
- what is the likelihood it is happening now (+/- X years)
- what is the physical reality that follows when PO happens
- how developed western world (and developing world) energy consumption patterns dictate the role the alternative sources can play (at least on the short term)
- what this will mean to the production of food, water, electricity, basic utilities, global trade, economy, etc _roughly_ withougt trying to give 100% accurate crystall ball type answers that nobody is going to believe

A one in all article, that says the most important things, say them in simple words along with non-technical pictures and nullify 90% of the most common counter-arguments used by laymean (were going to use tar sands/biodiesel/ethanol/nuclear power, when price goes up we'll just be more energy efficient, sun is an infinite source of plentiful energy, etc.)

It would be good if the disucssion didn't go deep into technicalities of geology, pumping, transport or economics of oil selling, futures, market psychology, assumed demand/supply patterns (which haven't yet played out in such a scale, etc).

I.e. try to think back to the day you first heard about PO and hadn't read a dozen of books on the subject, hadn't read forums for three years, etc. A PO virgin, if I may.

Just sticking calmly and impassionately to the basics and laying out as many irrefutable facts and most likely scenarios to make it really sink in.

What would be the article you'd recommend your friends to read?

As an added challenge, let's assume their too busy/tired/unmotivated to read a full book (at this time), but you are still motivated enough to try and make them read a single good article on the subject.

The article should not be (imho) not too pessimistic or defeatist in tone or scenarios, because I've found out that it causes rejection/denial with such a high likelihood.

Even if the facts are right, many people just need a bit time for the facts and ramifications to sink in at basic level, before they can start looking at the grim reality.

Also, I'm soliciting for 'positive' article recommendations as well, as long as the arguments are based on facts (don't violate the rules of known geology, biology, physics, chemistry, etc.). Please no "pure economics articles", where everything is solved by supply&demand and PO passes without any fanfare. If you can prove such an article though, please send it to the Nobel prize committee (and Nature, and Science, and UN, and the White House, etc.)

I.e. no "black box" energy sources, no "I know for sure that Fusion Energy will work on sustainable production level in 2012" predictions, unless you have scientific facts to back it up.

Please let the recommendations roll.

regards,
halcyon

PS If you think "no such article exists", maybe it's time to write one. If you think "too many such articles exist", pick the one you like the most.

{ not a current event! - Falconoffury }

[ashurbanipal]

The write up on LATOC is pretty good. I don't know how you explain peak oil without getting into at least quasi-technical issues, though.

[Doly]

My introduction to peak oil was through the Hubbert peak website, and I still think it's quite good for a start:

http://www.hubbertpeak.com/summary.htm

Also, the article on Wikipedia is quite informative:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil

If you're looking for something longer (and it looks like you are), I'd recommend the article on the Powerswitch website:

http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/Downloads/pos.doc

[Shadizar]

My answer to this was an audio of Rep. Roscoe Bartlett from globalpublic media. No need to read even He explains things rationally and calmly, and has the further advantage of being credible.

Of course, that didn't convince many of the people I presented it to, but it worked ok. I don't think you can really convince anyone of peak oil in a short time. The best you can do is stimulate interest in them (at best). The rest is up to them.

-Shadizar

[Ibon]

The best current article I would reccommend:

http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/4/ ... 1#comments