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The beginning of the end

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The beginning of the end

Unread postby Leanan » Thu 28 Oct 2004, 15:40:23

No, I don't really think peak is here. But there's an interesting article in USA Today, about gridlock at the LA shipping port:

http://www.usatoday.com/money/industrie ... over_x.htm

A variety of factors have conspired to create a weeks-long backlog. Everything from outsourcing to Wal-Mart. And also...the price of oil.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ith oil prices climbing and the price of diesel fuel on the rise, a new source of backlog is being created: a lack of truckers willing to haul containers. Truckers say they're burning so much fuel by idling and waiting for containers to be unloaded from ships that it's hardly worth waiting.

Making things worse: Truckers are paid a flat fee to haul loads. Rising fuel prices pinch their profits. They're responding by turning away jobs or thinking about leaving the business altogether.

Consider the plight of Wilmer Diaz, an independent truck driver who works the ports. In early October, it cost him $70 to top off his tank after the 60-mile trip to the rail distribution center in Ontario, Calif.

Diaz figures he'd burn $70 in gas just to earn $170 during a five-hour round trip and unloading. That may sound like a decent profit until you factor in other costs such as license fees and $300 tires for his 18-wheel truck. "Nobody wants to go out there. I'm not crazy."

Instead, he'll take only shorter routes where he might get $100 for the load but use just $12 in fuel. If fuel prices go up just an additional 10%, he says, he will ditch the truck for a factory job.


I think in this story, we see hints of what will happen at the peak. There will be longer delays, and some shortages. The average distance goods are shipped will drop, because fuel will be so expensive.

At first, it will just be an inconvenience. No bananas at the supermarket this week. The latest talking Elmo doll arriving after Christmas, instead of before. Eventually, they'll have to start prioritizing shipments. Now, it's first come, first served. Which means ships of perishable goods just rot if the backlog is too great. We'll have to make food a priority. Luxury goods may simply not be available, even if you're wealthy. Because there's no way to get it here. Perhaps the extremely wealthy will fly personal planes around the world, making sure their kids have new Playstations, and their parties feature Russian caviar and French wine. The rest of us will get used to the shelves being bare.
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Unread postby Colorado-Valley » Thu 28 Oct 2004, 16:26:29

What happens next spring when farmers leave their fields fallow because they realize they can't afford diesel, petroleum-based pesticides and fertiliers anymore?

Ten dollars for a box of cereal? It could happen ...
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Unread postby trespam » Thu 28 Oct 2004, 16:45:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Colorado-Valley', 'W')hat happens next spring when farmers leave their fields fallow because they realize they can't afford diesel, petroleum-based pesticides and fertiliers anymore?

Ten dollars for a box of cereal? It could happen ...


Things are going to get more expensive, that's for sure. Ten dollars a box? I'm not sure. Didn't someone post something here recently about energy prices flowing into other prices? I'll poke around. There has got to be something there.

You know what amazes me though: I buy a 7 grain cereal from the bulk bin, add in some oat bran from another bulk bin, add soy milk, and can probably eat breakfast for a month on a few bucks. Mainly what we are buying when we purchase a lot of products is ten cents of product and a hell-of-a-lot of advertising and packaging.

Oh, for the day when this commercial nightmare ends!!!! Yeah, I know. Be careful what you hope for: it may come true.
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Unread postby Jack » Thu 28 Oct 2004, 21:45:57

Intriguing post, Leanan.

I wonder if this might not be how the initial stages of Peak will play out? Fewer choices, with transportation costs being a big factor.

So, a book from Amazon might not be a very good deal. Fresh fruit in the supermarket during winter might not be available.
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Unread postby frankthetank » Thu 28 Oct 2004, 23:30:09

i've always laughed @ all this fruit from 3000 miles away that tastes bad because they have to pick it unripe and keep it chilled.

Pineapples flown from Hawaii. What a waste. Can them and put them on a ship.
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