[horacegoesskiing]

I think Manifa is the Saudi oilfield that's heavily tainted with vanadium and sulphur. I don't think the Saudis will want to touch it yet and it should be more or less still "full".

[Ancien_Opus]

Saudi Arabia is in the process of building 4 heavy oil refineries around the globe so it looks like Manifa will be tapped. ANWAR will likely be exploited as well.

I didn't see any question on Burgan being 2a because no one really knows if the numbers are real or not as it could be only half that size!

[alecifel]

I don't think Kirkuk is in natural decline, though.. Iraq's fields aren't producing because Saddam blew the infrastructure during the wars, so those can be brought back online.. once a stable government is in place (probably NEVER!)

No matter how you slice it, we're going to be drawing a larger portion of our future usage from the "heavier" and more sour stuff, which is going to drive the cost up considerably.

Platt's reported a couple days ago that the Saudi's are talking about a possible 8% decline in Ghawar. If that's the case, it's here -- we can see down both sides of the production curve from where we're standing.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('alecifel', 'I') don't think Kirkuk is in natural decline, though.. Iraq's fields aren't producing because Saddam blew the infrastructure during the wars, so those can be brought back online.. once a stable government is in place (probably NEVER!)

No matter how you slice it, we're going to be drawing a larger portion of our future usage from the "heavier" and more sour stuff, which is going to drive the cost up considerably.

Platt's reported a couple days ago that the Saudi's are talking about a possible 8% decline in Ghawar. If that's the case, it's here -- we can see down both sides of the production curve from where we're standing.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'I') know that when you send heavy crude through an old style refinery you get less gasoline than you do sending light crude through the same refinery, but as I seem to recall if you send heavy crude through a heavy crude designed refinery you preform hydrogen upgrading and catalytic cracking on it and get what are called 'refinery gains' which can be quite significant.

[khebab]

The info has been updated on TOD:

1. Ghawar Unknown
2a. Burgan CONFIRMED DECLINE ~14% (Source)
2b. Cantarell CONFIRMED DECLINE ~14% (Source)
3. Bolivar Coastal Unknown
4. Safaniya-Khafji Unknown
5. Rumaila Unknown
6. Tengiz Unknown
7. Ahwaz CONFIRMED DECLINE ~64% (HOLY CRAP!) (Source)
8. Kirkuk CONFIRMED DECLINE Need Source
9. Marun CONFIRMED DECLINE (Source)
10. Gachsaran Unknown
11. Aghajari CONFIRMED DECLINE (Source)
12. Samotlor CONFIRMED DECLINE ~ 9% (Simmons' book IIRC)
13a. Prudhoe Bay CONFIRMED DECLINE ~11% (Multiple sources)
13b. Kashagan Unknown
14. Abqaiq I don't know, but have you seen the cross section? It's all water!
15. Romashkino ALMOST DEAD (>90% depleted) (source)
16. Chicontepec Unknown
17. Berri Unknown
18. Zakum Unknown
19. Manifa Unknown
20. Faroozan-Marjan Unknown
21. Marlim, Campos CONFIRMED DECLINE ~8% (Source)

I propose that we add the following fields:

Da Qing (China)
Shaybah (Middle East)
Zuluf (Saudi Arabia)
Haradh-III (Middle East)
Sakhalin basin area 1 (Russia)
Marjan (Saudi Arabia)
Plutonio (Angola)
Abu Sa'fah (Middle East)
Azadegan (Iran)
Qatif (Middle East)
Yibal (Oman)



_________________________________________________________
http://graphoilogy.blogspot.com

[willjones4]

kind of ironic that Iran has a load of oil (even more than Saudi) and wouldja just look? they are working on a nookular weapons program, guess we'll have to invade-this stuff is so transparent...

[auscanman]

Daqing- wikipedia article says controlled production cut of 7% p/a is being done to prolong the lifespan of the field. DaQing

[Raminagrobis]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dreamtwister', 'T')his is a great idea. Let's see if we can fill in the data. I'll update this post as corrections are added.

[Raminagrobis]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dreamtwister', 'T')his is a great idea. Let's see if we can fill in the data. I'll update this post as corrections are added.

[Raminagrobis]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dreamtwister', 'T')his is a great idea. Let's see if we can fill in the data. I'll update this post as corrections are added.

[Raminagrobis]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('khebab', 'T')he info has been updated on TOD:

Da Qing (China)
Shaybah (Middle East)
Zuluf (Saudi Arabia)
Haradh-III (Middle East)
Sakhalin basin area 1 (Russia)
Marjan (Saudi Arabia)
Plutonio (Angola)
Abu Sa'fah (Middle East)
Azadegan (Iran)
Qatif (Middle East)
Yibal (Oman)

[Raminagrobis]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ancien_Opus', 'F')ield, Country Size estimate
2b. Cantarell, Mexico
(often listed as a large complex
of multiple smaller fields) 35 billion barrels

21. Marlim, Campos, Brazil 10-14 billion barrels

[Dreamtwister]

That's some fantastic info Raminagrobis. I do however have a few questions before I make an update:

1a. It has been suggested to include additional fields on the list. However, I don't know what order they should be in (largest to smallest). Where do the new fields fit on the list?

1b. The original list was supposed to be the top 20 fields. It's currently at 23. Since the purpose of the list is not to be a definitive resource, but rather a quick reference, where should the cutoff be?

2. In regards to #7 Ahwaz. I calculated the 64% decline from the peak production of 250kb/d to the current 160kb/d. Would 31% be more accurate, based on the projected 60kb/d 2 years from now?

3. In regard to #1 Ghawar. Based on your figure of 6.5Mb/d in the 70's and the current 4.5Mb/d, that's roughly a 30% total decline over 30 years. Of course, the Saudis would never admit to any decline in Ghawar, so would a rating of "suspected decline 1%" be appropriate?

4. Can you supply a decline figure for Kirkuk?

5. Would it be fair to say that Abqaiq is producing at a near-constant rate, but is set for massive declines in the very near future? There was a cross section posted here some time ago, and it showed the water to be as high as 2300 feet and a very thin oil layer.


Made the following changes:

Bolivar - Level Production
Romashkino - CONFIRMED DECLINE (Rate?)
Chicontepec - ADDITIONAL PRODUCTION POSSIBLE
Berri - CONFIRMED DECLINE (Rate?)
Zakum - ADDITIONAL PRODUCTION POSSIBLE
Manifa - Shut in ADDITIONAL PRODUCTION POSSIBLE

[smiley]

Here is the source for Kirkuk

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he giant Kirkuk oilfield in the north, producing since 1927, is in decline.

[Dan1195]

Couple basic observations:

1. Half the top 20 are in decline. Given the significant % of oil that these fields provide, just another indication that we are close to peak.

2. In some ways this examination just highlights how difficult it is to get some basic information due to the fact that many of the largest remaining fields are run by state run compaies, etc.

[Taskforce_Unity]

1994 field list in order of size, cumulative total of reserves of these 100 fields was 852 billion barrels back in 1993.

Rank Field Name Country Discovery year
1 Ghawar(Total) S. Arabia 1948
2 Greater.Burgan Kuwait 1938
3 Bolivar Coastal Venezuela 1926
4 Rumaila North & South Iraq 1953
5 Safaniya S. Arabia 1951
6 Kirkuk Iraq 1927
7 Samotlor C.I.S. 1965
8 Zakum UAE-Abu Dhabi 1964
9 East Baghdad Iraq 1979
10 Manifa S. Arabia 1957
11 Gachsaran Iran 1928
12 Abqaiq S. Arabia 1941
13 Ahwaz Iran 1958
14 Romashinko C.I.S. 1948
15 Cantarell Complexx Mexico 1976
16 Marun Iran 1963
17 Zuluf S. Arabia 1965
18 Berri S. Arabia 1964
19 Agha Jari Iran 1936
20 Daqing China 1959
21 Khurais Iran 1957
21 Prudhoe Bay U.S.A. 1967
22 Bu Hasa UAE-Abu Dhabi 1962
23 West Qurna Iraq 1973
24 Fedor-Surgutskoye C.I.S. 1962
25 Hassi Messaoud Algeria 1956
26 Kafhji N.Z. 1959
27 Raudhatain Kuwait 1955
29 Krasnoleninskoye C.I.S. 1962
30 Bab UAE-Abu Dhabi 1963
31 Abu Sa'fah S. Arabia 1963
32 Zubair Iraq 1948
33 Ust-BaIyk.-Mamontoyskoye C.I.S. 1961
34 Shaybah S. Arabia 1968
35 Majnoon Iraq 1977
36 Asab UAE-Abu Dhabi 1965
37 Tengiz Kazakhstan 1979
38 Qatif S. Arabia 1945
39 Pravdinks-Salym C.I.S. 1964
40 Marlim Brazil 1985
41 Umm shaif Of 1958
42 Panshan (Liaho Complex) China 1964
43 East Texas ON 1930
44 Sabriya Kuwait 1957
45 Bai Hassan Iraq 1953
46 Dukhan Qatar 1940
47 Pokachevsko-Uryevskoye C.I.S. 1971
48 Sarir (065-C) Libya 1961
49 Minas Indonesia 1944
50 Carito Venezuela 1988
51 Khursaniyah S. Arabia 1956
52 Marjan S. Arabia 1967
53 Duri Indonesia 1941
54 Rag-E-Safid Iran 1963
55 Arlanskoye C.I.S. 1955
56 Bibi Hakimeh Iran 1961
57 Statfjord Norway 1974
58 Uzen'skoye (S Mangyshlak-U) Kazakhstan 1961
59 Nahr Umr Iraq 1948
60 Abkalun Mexico 1979
61 Gialo (059-E) Libya 1961
62 Minagish Kuwait 1959
63 Tevlin-Konilorskoye C.I.S. 1971
64 Furrial-Musipan Venezuela 1986
65 Karamay-Complex China 1955
66 Umm Gudair Kuwait 1962
67 Priobskoye C.I.S. 1982
68 Wafra N.Z. 1953
69 Russkoye C.I.S. 1968
70 Vatyegan C.I.S. 1971
71 Wilmington U.S.A. 1932
72 Lyantor C.I.S. 1966
73 Midway-Sunset U.S.A. 1894
74 Jambur Iraq 1954
75 Forties U.K. 1970
76 Tuymazy(Aleksondrovskoye) C.I.S. 1937
77 Foroozan Iran 1966
78 Balakhano-Sobundlino-Ramon Azerbaydzhan 1871
79 Bombay India 1974
80 Renqiu China 1975
81 Ekofisk Norway 1969
82 Subba Iraq 1978
83 Nasser (006-C/41/4k) Libya 1959
84 Varyegan C.I.S. 1968
85 Karanj Iran 1963
86 Cerro Negro-Faja 29 Venezuela 1980
87 Hawtah S. Arabia 1989
88 Ku Mexico 1979
89 Paris Iran 1964
90 Harmaliyah S. Arabia 1971
91 Amal (012-8/E/N/R) Libya 1959
92 Lamar Venezuela 1958
93 Shuguang (liaohe CoI1'f)Iex) China 1975
94 Kern River U.S.A 1899
95 Augilo-Nafoora (102-Oj051- Libya 1965
96 Buzurgan Iraq 1969
97 Brent U.K. 1961
98 Yates U.S.A. 1926
99 Wasson U.SA 1936
100 Povkhovskoye C.I.S. 1972

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '2'). In regards to #7 Ahwaz. I calculated the 64% decline from the peak production of 250kb/d to the current 160kb/d. Would 31% be more accurate, based on the projected 60kb/d 2 years from now?

3. In regard to #1 Ghawar. Based on your figure of 6.5Mb/d in the 70's and the current 4.5Mb/d, that's roughly a 30% total decline over 30 years. Of course, the Saudis would never admit to any decline in Ghawar, so would a rating of "suspected decline 1%" be appropriate?

4. Can you supply a decline figure for Kirkuk?

5. Would it be fair to say that Abqaiq is producing at a near-constant rate, but is set for massive declines in the very near future? There was a cross section posted here some time ago, and it showed the water to be as high as 2300 feet and a very thin oil layer

[Dreamtwister]

1. Expanded list to include the top 100 fields. Focus is still on the top 20, but any information can be useful
2. Upgraded Abqaiq to "Level production"
3. Added source for Kirkuk
4. Upgraded Qatif to Shut in, additional production possible
5. Downgraded Daqing to CONFIRMED DECLINE (Rate?)
6. Upgraded Ghawar to "Level production"
7. Added home country of each field
8. Moved Kashagan, Chicontepec and Faroozan-Marjan to "orphaned fields" because I don't know where they fit in the new list

To Do:

Colour code entries based on oil types. Suggested categories:

Light Sweet (Above what specific gravity? Below what sulfur content?)
Light Sour
Heavy Sweet
Heavy Sour
Extra Heavy (Anything equal to or less than 10° API?)

[mgibbons19]

Thanks for all your collaboration and hard work Twister and everyone. This is exactly the kind of info I was curious about. I do appreciate it.