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"Futures", Somebody please explain

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: "Futures", Somebody please explain

Unread postby whereagles » Mon 17 Apr 2006, 05:49:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mark', 'O')il is traded, like many other commodities, at exchanges commonly called 'futures markets.' The public has always been able to participate in this form of trading.

Not really. I've checked on requirements to play the oil game at NYMEX and apparently I would need to buy oil in multiples of 1000 barrels. Meaning, I'd have to have 70 grand before I start gambling :)
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Re: "Futures", Somebody please explain

Unread postby MrBill » Mon 17 Apr 2006, 07:12:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('whereagles', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mark', 'O')il is traded, like many other commodities, at exchanges commonly called 'futures markets.' The public has always been able to participate in this form of trading.

Not really. I've checked on requirements to play the oil game at NYMEX and apparently I would need to buy oil in multiples of 1000 barrels. Meaning, I'd have to have 70 grand before I start gambling :)


NYMEX Initial Margin Requirements

You would only have to put up $4725 as a non-member to trade one contract on the NYMEX. I am not sure whether the e/mini still trades on the CME or not, but there you could trade 100 barrel mini-contracts.

By the way, ICE just announced plans to launch electronic contracts for NYH heating oil and NYH RBOH gasoline starting on April 21st. That will be sweet. Up to now I had to trade those via the NYMEX open outcry/afterhours ACCESS, but through a broker, and now I can access the ICE future electronically and lower my cross-exchange margin requirements.

Much better price transparency and faster execution from my laptop at home. It does not get any more democratic than that. Anyone from anywhere.
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Re: "Futures", Somebody please explain

Unread postby whereagles » Mon 17 Apr 2006, 10:12:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'Y')ou would only have to put up $4725 as a non-member to trade one contract on the NYMEX.

You could be right. I didn't pay much attention to it.. was just curious whether I could join in, not to actually gamble.
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Re: Futures

Unread postby teemu » Tue 18 Apr 2006, 07:50:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('coyote', 'T')hanks Doctor Doom, Carlhole et. al. Good explanations. Many people still don't realize that when you invest in futures you can lose a lot more than the amount you put in. Also the zero-sum aspect. My father had to explain to me, when I was young, that this is why so many previously wealthy investors did Peter Pans from 14th floors after the crash in 1929. Not only had they lost everything, they were also in debt for life.


But you should understand that this is not a feature of futures, but trading in margin. You can lose everyting and get in the debt if you use margin, it doesn't matter if you trade futures, stocks or play poker. On the other hand, you can play with futures without margin and then you can only lose the money you start with, just like with stocks.

So, futures not equal big risk. It is trading in margin that causes the risk.
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Re: "Futures", Somebody please explain

Unread postby Doly » Tue 18 Apr 2006, 07:59:18

So, let me see if I get it right: trading in margin is trading with borrowed money, right?
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Re: "Futures", Somebody please explain

Unread postby teemu » Tue 18 Apr 2006, 08:02:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', 'S')o, let me see if I get it right: trading in margin is trading with borrowed money, right?


Exactly. There are certain risks if you borrow money and invest it. Or play poker with it. For some reason people seems to confuse trading in margin and trading futures. Futures are usually traded in margin, but not necessarily.
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Re: "Futures", Somebody please explain

Unread postby mmasters » Tue 18 Apr 2006, 10:45:08

The great factor in the stock market crash of '29 was Margin.

The fact that someone could control 100 shares of stock by only owning 10 shares. People didn't see the problem when the market was going up and reaped the profits, however when stock started going down (even just a few points) they would get something called a "margin call" whereas they would have to put up more money to retain ownership of their stock. And most everyone that participated in the margin boom ended up losing their shirts when the stock market got downward momentum.

However you had people like the Rockefellers and the Morgans that were selling short the market at the same time. So while all the joe investors lost everything, many of the wealthiest of the time became that much wealtihier.

Since this time they have changed the margin reqirements to 50% to avert this type of thing from happening again.

However the problem never went away, people just got more creative. We now have options and other complex market instruments that can be used to rob investors. And the people that have the upper hand on these creative complex instruments are the rich of course.

Add to that that most of the world's drug money is laundered through the US to boost the markets as well as act as a slush fund for financial problems and emergencies and you have a system more rigged than ever.

But you know if anything the housing market resembles the pre-'29 market more than anything. People controlling properties with zero down no interest morgages. It's not even 10% it's ZERO percent. Combine that with the fact that the housing market is worth more than the US stock market and THAT is scary.
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Re: "Futures", Somebody please explain

Unread postby Chaparral » Tue 18 Apr 2006, 13:32:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mmasters', '
')
But you know if anything the housing market resembles the pre-'29 market more than anything. People controlling properties with zero down no interest morgages. It's not even 10% it's ZERO percent. Combine that with the fact that the housing market is worth more than the US stock market and THAT is scary.


Bingo. I've come to think recently that the real estate market is a sort of "futures market for the future". People have been falling all over each other to put their life savings in as initial margin for a piece of property and then sign their names to pay multi-thosand dollar sums each month to for thirty years to pay down the leverage.

If the future is bright and values go up, as they have done in my part of the world (California) then all is fine. If they go down, as in rust belt Ohio or West Virginia then that life savings is lost; the margin so to speak is wiped out. It's why i believe that TPTB consider beaucoup inflation the lesser of two evils; it seems that the futures and equities markets are revealing this before our very eyes in real time today. Its a great day to be long :twisted:
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Re: "Futures", Somebody please explain

Unread postby coyote » Fri 21 Apr 2006, 00:52:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('teemu', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', 'S')o, let me see if I get it right: trading in margin is trading with borrowed money, right?


Exactly. There are certain risks if you borrow money and invest it. Or play poker with it. For some reason people seems to confuse trading in margin and trading futures. Futures are usually traded in margin, but not necessarily.

Agreed, you don't have to trade on margin in futures markets; but from what I understand nearly everyone does. You can make a lot more money that way. Didn't know you can trade stocks on margin too.
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Re: "Futures", Somebody please explain

Unread postby cube » Fri 21 Apr 2006, 01:39:10

There are 2 rules that are constant in the "commodity futures" market:

1) If the price goes up and consumers must pay more for common goods then, the public blames traders for "profiteering".

2) If the price goes down and producers go out of business because they can no longer make a decent profit, the public blames traders for "profiteering".

Being a "futures" trader is like being a porno movie producer---you don't get any respect. The difference of course is that one is morally legitimate while the other requires you to make a profit off another person's expense. I'll let you figure out which is which. :-D :wink:
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