[GrizzAdams]

Ah yes, the supposed "free market." If the market is so free, how did the Chrystler company go on the verge of bankruptcy, and then bounce back. How did Lockheed Martin go to the verge of bankruptcy, and then bounce back. According to the laws of the free market, thses companies should have been dead a long time ago.

Can we say, "market manipulation."

[Liamj]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GrizzAdams', '.')..

Can we say, "market manipulation."

[marko]

Yes, market manipulation exists, but I'm not so sure that it is going on here. The technical charts were pointing to a peak in prices, and lots of wealthy speculators no doubt have sold to "take profits."

Also, there is a widespread feeling of malaise in the stock market now, a fear that high energy prices and debt service payments will kill the US consumer, burst the housing bubble, and bring on a global recession. If a recession were to come, energy companies would take a big hit to their profits. This would be reason to sell for the speculative trader, and speculative traders, rather than long-term investors, have probably made up a large proportion of buyers of energy shares in recent months.

[Liamj]

Conceeded Marko, a more likely dynamic on any given day than fed&friends intervention. Be a sweet little ride tho, for any biggers players who thought they knew the long term trend. If was a betting man would buy the reserve & asset owning co's while they're down.

[Twinsen]

Hi all. I'm new to this board. I started reading about peak oil about 6 months ago and I agree with most of what I've read.

My question is what effect do you think peak oil will have on oil and gas companies, and resource companies in general?

If there is a market crash will they keep going strong?

[Doly]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Torjus', 'A')nd demand for oil will soften in bad times and that will lower the price.

[TorrKing]

To my knowledge: No. They rely on customers to sell their goods as everyone else. And demand for oil will soften in bad times and that will lower the price.

However, if we during the next resession already are in steep oil production decline. Then the results can be a little more interesting; the lowering in production may keep up with the lowering in demand. Ergo, the oil price will stay high throughout the resession. That resession may very well become the everlasting depression many peak oilers talk about.

Torjus Gaaren

[TorrKing]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Torjus', 'A')nd demand for oil will soften in bad times and that will lower the price.

[Micki]

Although profit per barrel pumped may increase, companies struggling with finding new reserves will have difficulties in maintaining 'production'.
Expoloration in difficult environments such as hurricane prone waters and deep sea may be expensive. Projects in geopolitically unstable areas may also be expensive.
So unfortunatelly even if oil price shoots up, individual companies may have difficulties in maintaining profits/share price.
Oil companies doing well can however expect better share price development than plain crude oil.
Investing in oil as commodity is also difficult as 'time decay' (expiration) of futures requires good timing of investment.
And yes, economin downturn may result in demand destruction great enough to drive down oil price.

[teemu]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Micki', 'I')nvesting in oil as commodity is also difficult as 'time decay' (expiration) of futures requires good timing of investment.

[elroy]

I bought some stock on a virtual stock exchange, www.IEX.nl, I bought SBM Offshore some time ago and so far it's gained some 15% profit. If only I'd bought that stock for real..

[Zardoz]

The money boys are really starting to talk about Peak Oil:

GREAT EXPECTATIONS!

"My timing was based on technical factors but above all, my bullish bias is due to the fundamental factors of supply and demand. Crude oil is in a generational long-term bull-market, which is only going to intensify in the future."

And its all because of the inelasticity of the demand for oil, and this little factor, of course:

[greenworm]

It seems to me that in a time of tight supply one should invest in companies that have proven technology which attempt to conteract the supply constraints. The oil companies (all of them!) are so overpriced in the market and are just waiting to pop. You really don't want to be holding the bag on those cause it will cost you alot. Alternative energies are far from being implemented and aren't turning a major profit to move stocks. I would go for industries which have contracts to build pipelines(might have to look around for foreign investments on this one). One gem I found is Sulphco! They have technology which can convert heavy crude into sweet crude, increase the production of oil "Sonocracking can yield between 20% to 50% more light oil per barrel", and remove a lot of the nasty sulphur emitted from oil which ruins our rainwater.


SulphCo Sonocracking(TM) Technology - the Facts

NEW YORK, Jan. 24 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- After close consultation with other members of the Board of Directors of SulphCo, Inc., (Amex: SUF) Robert H.C. van Maasdijk feels compelled to respond to the article in Barron's Magazine over the weekend as, in his opinion, the article is materially misleading regarding the company, its management and its technology. In response, Mr. van Maasdijk has decided to focus exclusively on his assessment of the Sonocracking(TM) technology, and in particular, test results furnished not only by SulphCo, but also those produced by one of the leading oil companies in the Middle East, a company which has tested the Sonocracking technology at the facilities during the entire month of December 2005. In the opinion of Mr. van Maasdijk, these results indicate that the Sonocracking technology developed by SulphCo will not only reduce sulphur and nitrogen content in processed crude, but more importantly, will substantially increase the yield of light distillates.

SulphCo has previously stated that its technology will increase the API gravity by 6 to 11 points, depending on the quality of the crude processed (light, medium or heavy). These test results confirm that, in volume terms, Sonocracking can yield between 20% to 50% more light oil per barrel, depending on the grade of crude processed. In dollar terms, this can mean an uplift of between $5 and $10 per barrel.

Sonocracking technology has minimal operating costs and is adaptable to both upstream and downstream applications.

SulphCo will install, by the beginning of June 2006, its first 210,000 barrels of Sonocracking capacity (seven 30,000 barrels per units) in Fujairah. The equipment will be manufactured by NTG Technology in Germany, following which 300,000 barrels of additional capacity will be installed in the following months. It is the opinion of NTG that once the seven units of 30,000 barrels each have been installed, an accelerated rollout is anticipated.

Last but not least, SulphCo is in the final stages of negotiations with several oil producing nations and companies, as has been stated before. As a consequence, the Board of SulphCo is fully focused on the rollout of the Sonocracking equipment.

About SulphCo, Inc.

SulphCo has developed a patented safe and economic process employing ultrasound technology to desulfurize and hydrogenate crude oil and other oil related products. The company's technology upgrades sour heavy crude oils into sweeter, lighter crudes, producing more gallons of usable oil per barrel.

[Gecko]

Hi there,
I am new to the industry (and the concept of peak oil) and would like to find out where one can get information on the industry's value chain (I have searched around but can't find anything). What I mean with value chain is some sort of diagrammatic representation of the stocks and flows (system dynamics concepts) that occurs in the oil industry. I.e.
- Oil in the ground (stock)
- Oil extracted (flow)
- Oil stored (stock)
- Oil transported (flow)
- Oil stored (stock)
- Oil refined (flow)
- Refined products stored (stock)
- Refined products transport (flow)
- Refined producs blended (?)

Anyways, that's the general idea. Obviously the real thing would be way more complicated than the example above, and should also capture interaction between coal, oil and gas. The idea behind this really is that in order to understand the concept of peak oil beyond a superficial level, I would like to have a bird's eye view of the industry and the interrelationships (linear, non-linear, dynamic, iterative) between system elements. Only then should one begin to have a sense of how the industry might evolve in response to challenges such as peak oil.

[pup55]

My favorite source is the BP Statistical Review of World Energy:

BP Review

This has the reserves, production (pumping) and consumption for most of the major energy types and most of the big countries.

The US-EIA has an abundance of statistics on storage and transportation but it is mainly for the US. There is a weekly petroleum inventory report that we try to follow so as to tell whether we are heading into a shortage situation or not.

US-EIA

The International Energy Agency is the international version of the same thing. They charge money for their current statistics, but you can get archived data that is pretty good for free. They also do a monthly report, which was just released today, on energy balance, etc.

IEA Statistical Page

What you are going to find is that there is some disagreement as to the validity of a lot of this data, because it is derived from publicly announced sources, such as government energy ministries, and is therefore subject to political influence. It's not like in a normal business, where you pretty much have to tell the truth about what your inventory is or you go to jail.

Anyway when you get your model figured out, I hope you post it so we can all see! A lot of us are stat nerds that like this stuff.

[LX1]

what do you guys think about stocking up on oil....a good investment or no???

if gas prices are really going to increase like they say, wont the amount of money i invest in gas increase the same???

[clover]

Like, 55-gallon drums in your backyard?

[LX1]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('clover', 'L')ike, 55-gallon drums in your backyard?

[Petro]

Gee three(3) threads with really silly questions? I'll pass.

[clover]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Petro', 'G')ee three(3) threads with really silly questions? I'll pass.