[Typhoon]

I'll start a trading journal separate from the Trader's Corner thread. These trades are hypothetical, so there is no guarantee that these results will be 100% accurate, but I'll do the best I can. I plan to trade these NYMEX contracts: CL (crude oil), HU (unleaded gasoline), HO (heating oil), and NG (natural gas). In real life, I would consider trading the e-miNY contracts instead of the full-sized pit-traded contracts, but it doesn't matter too much for this journal. Besides futures, I might also consider utilizing options in this journal.

The journal is based on an $100,000 account. This is conservative considering that the highest margin requirement (natural gas) is barely above $10,000. If I have a position in all four contracts, I will only have one contract per position. Otherwise, I might have multiple contracts.

Disclaimer: These results are hypothetical. No guarantee is being made that an actual account would achieve results similar to those shown here. There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading.

[Typhoon]

The hourly charts are pointing higher, but I feel that the market is overbought right now. I will often use limit prices, but these first trades will be "at market". The prices below are current prices.

Short May crude (CLK6) @ 66.50. Stop 67.00.
Short May gasoline (HUK6) @ 1.8890. Stop 1.9100.
Short May heating oil (HOK6) @ 1.8520. Stop 1.8600.

Natural gas is a tougher call. The storage number came out as -104 bcf. This would seem bullish, but it was expected that there would be a substantial drop this week due to cool temperatures. I think the bulls needed number closer to -150 bcf, yet natural gas really hasn't fallen in reaction to the report, although it fell earlier in the morning. Therefore, I'll go short NG as well, albeit with a less aggressive profit target.

Short May natural gas (NGK6) @ 7.46. Stop 7.52.

[Typhoon]

Cover May natural gas @ 7.43. P/L +$300. It was kind of wimpy to go for just three cents per mmBtu in natural gas, but the bullish price action we've had recently makes me afraid to go for more. That was a really short trade. Obviously I won't have time to watch all of my trades like I just did. I'll just have limit entries and predefined stops and profit targets so that my exit is not discretionary once I'm in a trade.

[MrBill]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Typhoon', 'T')he hourly charts are pointing higher, but I feel that the market is overbought right now. I will often use limit prices, but these first trades will be "at market". The prices below are current prices.

Short May crude (CLK6) @ 66.50. Stop 67.00.
Short May gasoline (HUK6) @ 1.8890. Stop 1.9100.
Short May heating oil (HOK6) @ 1.8520. Stop 1.8600.

Natural gas is a tougher call. The storage number came out as -104 bcf. This would seem bullish, but it was expected that there would be a substantial drop this week due to cool temperatures. I think the bulls needed number closer to -150 bcf, yet natural gas really hasn't fallen in reaction to the report, although it fell earlier in the morning. Therefore, I'll go short NG as well, albeit with a less aggressive profit target.

Short May natural gas (NGK6) @ 7.46. Stop 7.52.

[Typhoon]

Yesterday's results:

Stopped out on short May crude @ 67.00. P/L: ($500)
Stopped out on short May gasoline @ 1.9100. P/L: ($462)
Stopped out on short May heating oil @ 1.8600. P/L: ($336)
Covered short May natural gas @ 7.43. P/L: $300

Account balance: $99,002

My indicators are still bullish, despite the dip we've had. However, natural gas has turned bearish. Therefore, I'm going to stay disciplined and go long today on crude and the products, but not on natural gas. These trades will be more like position trades, so I'm using wide stops. I plan to exit my positions by trailing my stops rather than setting a profit target.

Buy May crude @ 66.40. Stop 64.00.
Buy May heating oil @ 1.8500. Stop 1.7900.
Buy May gasoline @ 1.8750. Stop 1.8100.

[Typhoon]

Today's results:

Long May crude from 66.40. Keep stop at 64.00.
Settled @ 66.63. Today's P/L: +$230.

Long May heating oil from 1.8500. Keep stop at 1.7900.
Settled @ 1.8633. Today's P/L: +$558.60.

Long May gasoline from 1.8750. Keep stop at 1.8100.
Settled @ 1.8843. Today's P/L: +$390.60.

Account balance: $100,181.20

[MrBill]

Was very disciplined. Held off selling on early weakness. Sold heavily at the close. Now short theWTI at 66.50. See what happens on Monday?

[Typhoon]

Crude was up strongly today, reaching a high of $67.90. Perhaps I should have had a limit order to close the position, but I didn't, so I'm still long. There was late day weakness. While crude still managed to end slightly higher, the products ended lower, particularly gasoline. Hopefully the rally isn't over. I've raised my stops on the two positions from which I have profited (crude and heating oil). If I get stopped out, I will look to buy on further weakness. I'm currently avoiding the short side, despite whatever the technicals might say.

Today's results:

Long May crude from 66.40. Raise stop to 65.00.
Settled @ 66.74. Today's P/L: +$110.

Long May heating oil from 1.8500. Raise stop to 1.8100.
Settled @ 1.8622. Today's P/L: -$46.20.

Long May gasoline from 1.8750. Keep stop at 1.8100.
Settled @ 1.8632. Today's P/L: -$886.20.

Account balance: $99,358.80

[Typhoon]

Today I decided to close my long gasoline position when it spiked up to 1.91, and decided to go long once again when it dipped back to 1.89. I raised the stops on my other two positions. I expect the rally to resume tomorrow after the inventory numbers come out. WTI should break $68, but gasoline could be the leader in the rally.

Today's results:

Long May crude from 66.40. Raise stop to 65.50.
Settled @ 66.23. Today's P/L: -$510.

Long May heating oil from 1.8500. Raise stop to 1.8300.
Settled @ 1.8558. Today's P/L: -$268.80.

Sold long May gasoline from 1.8750 at 1.9100. Today’s P/L: +$1,965.60. (Total net P/L: +$1,470.)

Bought May gasoline at 1.8900. Stop 1.8600.
Settled @ 1.8955. Today's P/L: +$231.

Account balance: $100,776.60

[Typhoon]

Today's results:

Long May crude from 66.40. Keep stop at 65.50.
Settled @ 67.07. Today's P/L: +$840.

Long May heating oil from 1.8500. Keep stop at 1.8300.
Settled @ 1.8688. Today's P/L: +$546.

Long May gasoline from 1.8900. Raise stop to 1.9100.
Settled @ 1.9471. Today's P/L: +$2,167.20.

Account balance: $104,329.80

[Typhoon]

Today's results:

Long May crude from 66.40. Raise stop to 66.60.
Settled @ 67.94. Today's P/L: +$870.

Long May heating oil from 1.8500. Raise stop to 1.8600.
Settled @ 1.8907. Today's P/L: +$919.80.

Long May gasoline from 1.8900. Raise stop to 1.9300.
Settled @ 1.9999. Today's P/L: +$2,217.60.

Account balance: $108,337.20

[MrBill]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Typhoon', 'T')oday's results:

Long May crude from 66.40. Raise stop to 66.60.
Settled @ 67.94. Today's P/L: +$870.

Long May heating oil from 1.8500. Raise stop to 1.8600.
Settled @ 1.8907. Today's P/L: +$919.80.

Long May gasoline from 1.8900. Raise stop to 1.9300.
Settled @ 1.9999. Today's P/L: +$2,217.60.

Account balance: $108,337.20

[Typhoon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '
')Are you sure on those closing prices? I have $67.39 in the WTI, $1.8826 in the heating oil and $1.9820 in the unleaded? Good week by the way, your calls were spot on. Good luck this week. Cheers.

[MrBill]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Typhoon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '
')Are you sure on those closing prices? I have $67.39 in the WTI, $1.8826 in the heating oil and $1.9820 in the unleaded? Good week by the way, your calls were spot on. Good luck this week. Cheers.