[nero]

Interesting data from IHS energy: The major international oil companies' new field wildcats were down again in 2005. It was 39% below the level of international exploration conducted in 1994. The three super majors, Total, Shell and Exxon look like they are getting out of the exploration business altogether. They are down a whopping 80% from 1994 levels. Certainly don't see the higher price levels leading to increased exploration. I wonder how economists explain that! IHS Energy (pdf)

[seahorse2]

Nero,

Don't bother us with facts, they seem to get in the way, like dropping a banana peel on the dance room floor.

Okay, Lynch told me to tell you, young Grasshopper, that the answer is obvious: increased technology has made wildcatting much more efficient, therefore, less wildcats have to be drilled to find more oil.

[rockdoc123]

Yes....this is important information. The folks at IHS Energy have been saying for the last three years that if exploration does not pick up in the very near future we are going to be in deep trouble....basically accelerating peak oil to the point where we will definitely only be dealing with 2 trillion barrels. With exploration at all time lows it is pretty hard to argue that we've done everything to find all of the remaining oil. Sooner or later this is going to have to change but as IHS Energy points out elsewhere the access to areas with high potential is currently not there.

[FatherOfTwo]

Wait a minute.
I thought one of the reasons for this was that the majors were allowing the juniors to play that game, and then they come along and gobble them up?

[Leanan]

Interesting report. Thanks for the link!

BalticMan over at TOD says there's an article called "Energy, an Aging Bull" in the latest Barron's. It's an interview with Art Smith, chairman & CEO of John S. Herold Inc., which maintains a database on publicly-held oil companies. It's subscription-only, alas, but he quoted these bits:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')Another issue is in order to prolong a period of rising production and demand, you have to increasingly build up the amount of reserves. In other words, producing 85 million a barrels is equivalent to 30 billion barrels a year. We are not finding 30 billion barrels. We are finding perhaps maybe 10 billion barrels of new oil."

"Q: Why haven't they run up?

A: They are not growing. That's the No. 1 issue. The industry is really having a difficult time just holding its own, much less growing. The primary way they deliver value to shareholders is through dividends and share repurchases. The growth they can show is per-share growth. We are hard pressed to find companies that have much in the way of anticipated volume, meaning increased production over existing declines."

[nero]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FatherOfTwo', 'W')ait a minute.
I thought one of the reasons for this was that the majors were allowing the juniors to play that game, and then they come along and gobble them up?

[Spideykid]

Lets see the oil companies have probably checked 99% of all the likely areas where there is good chance you can get a good amount of recoverable oil, so how much exploration do you need for places that are not likely going to have much recoverable oil?

[0mar]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Spideykid', 'L')ets see the oil companies have probably checked 99% of all the likely areas where there is good chance you can get a good amount of recoverable oil, so how much exploration do you need for places that are not likely going to have much recoverable oil?

[seahorse2]

Rockdoc,

I noticed that you have roughly estimated a peak oil date of 2014. If the wildcat trend continues to drop (implying a drop in discoveries), would this change your rough estimate of PO? If so, how much could it change?

Thanks

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') noticed that you have roughly estimated a peak oil date of 2014. If the wildcat trend continues to drop (implying a drop in discoveries), would this change your rough estimate of PO? If so, how much could it change?