by jimk » Tue 28 Mar 2006, 03:12:04
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TWilliam', '
')They may not be "necessary", and yes it would be nice to think that we could somehow break the linkages, but given human culture's record up to the present, I for one am highly skeptical of any such attempts succeeding, at least on any kind of culturewide scale.
I have to agree that the task looks very daunting. What I think increases the odds a little is that big changes are a-foot no matter what. It's a lot easier to change the heading of a ship that's moving!
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TWilliam', '
')The bottom line is that there is only one pie
There is a very concrete level at which some formula, like the one you quote, has to be correct. It's just elementary accounting. But, like any accountant knows, accounting is really magic, the creation of a convincing illusion.
Really there are countless pies. Each individual pie will obey an equation like the one you quote. But there are just endless pies to be divided up. I mentioned postage stamps. How about baseball cards. There are just so many Babe Ruth baseball cards to go around.
Energy is like money. When they are not moving, maybe one can work out a way to see them as well defined pies. But when they are moving, the accounting is a lot more fluid. There are accounting rules, e.g. about wash sales, to bound the degree of fluidity. Thermodynamics gets pretty fishy too. It gets hooked into information theory via Maxwell's demon, and information theory is relativized by encodings and expectations.
It's the idea that there is just one pie that really suffocates us. Petroleum reserves are just one pie, yeah, that must be an accurate enough perspective. Or copper or iron or gold. Of course some cakes one actually can both have and eat, while others disappear as they are eaten.
So my point is really about language. We can give words like "affluence" and "technology" very narrow meanings, and derive some theorems, and devise strategies etc. that all conform to our definitions. But these are not neologisms, these are common words whose common meanings are not at all confined to the narrow meanings we chose. The obvious danger is that folks outside our little clique will misinterpret our theorems, thinking that our formulas apply to other, broader meanings of the terms. The subtler danger is that we ourselves within the clique will fool ourselves with our theorems, forgetting the narrow definitions that allow us to squeeze out such concrete results.
Unbounded progress and economic growth are entirely possible in a world with finite fossil fuel resources. I am quite confident that humanity will figure this out one way or another, whether it takes fifty years or five hundred years. I don't see any way to steer the ship in a sustainable direction on a five year time scale, unfortunately. But I think we today have a responsibility to our grandchildren and their grandchildren. If we start pulling on the rudder today, we can accelerate the move to a new way of understanding affluence and economic growth and progress, a way that is decoupled from fossil fuel consumption.
Just to be clear, I don't mean to imply any kind of nuclear power program as an escape. I would include those as fossil fuel resource, though they're fossils left from astrophysical processes instead of biological processes.
What we seem to need more than anything is a bit of imagination. Just to see the amazing pies that are possible.
For another example: I am no fan of computer games, but obviously lots of people get totally wrapped up in these things. There are whole worlds there, every sort of pie to be won and lost, and it is all fundamentally decoupled from fossil fuel consumption. The whole world of art is this way. Really computer games are probably just today's version of Wagner's operas.
Neither am I arguing for any kind of Kurzweilian escape into the virtual world. No question that people need some basic minimum of food and water and air etc. to thrive. If we had a sustainable and efficient agricultural system, very hard to know what the real carrying capacity of earth would be. And really it is rather useless to speculate. We are incalculably far from any kind of sustainable efficiency. It will take generations to find our way, and major population changes can work themselves out in several generations' time.
The fantasy world that I propose we live in, winning and losing countless imaginary pies, may seem to folks like utter delusion. The thing is, we already live in a world of utter delusion. We don't kill each other over food, we kill each other over ideas. We have been in the imaginary pie business since prehistoric times.
Yeah, the problem isn't so much a lack of imagination as an over rigidity of imagination.
So I am suggesting that "affluence" and "technology" are words that we could fruitfully re-imagine.