[McBain]

Safehaven and M3 money supply:This link would seem to suggest that the M3 increase is not that big a deal.

What do you guys think? I'm pretty skeptical of Matt, even though I think his data and arguments are fantastic. He is a short step from convincing me, but my skeptic nature is going to keep me from buying all this for a while yet, even while I'm strongly open to the possibility.

[Pops]

Hi, McBain.

If you’re referring to the post I made regarding the safehaven site, I think the point they area trying to make is pumping this much money into the system before something bad happens is different from ’02 and ’01 when the something bad had already happened.

Maybe they (the fed) know something bad is about to happen, or already has happened and we just don’t know it yet…


Any thoughts on what terrible economy shaking thing might have already happened - from you folks here on Peak Oil News?



Just rambling too late at night.

[elrod]

I have been a lurker here for some time now and wanted to post this link in regards to the Fed's sudden increase in the money supply. It seems there are several websites that have attached this article to their own agenda. The biggest is the Aussie Bloke hoax that is spreading all around the Net. Here is a link that states their opinion on the SafeHaven report: link
http://www.timebomb2000.com and http://www.godlikeproductions.com are two other websites that have this hoax going strong. They are also pointing to the huge Navy departures of the countries around the world as a possible link to this "upcoming disaster". Peak Oil is also mentioned in the mix. Anyway, enjoy the reading if you are of a mind to.

[Leanan]

OMG, Aussie Bloke was right:

http://www.cnn.com/2004/US/West/06/03/m ... index.html

[WaterBearer]

I've now listened to the whole audio file on the intercepted "impact in 146 days" transmission. You can hear it here:

http://users.pandora.be/BuRn/SNOWBALL_i ... 5b1%5d.mp3

The voice giving the impact information is clearly robotic while the voice who says 'you are not secure, go green go green' is very human. I'm having trouble thinking that a world-catastrophe event--or the timing thereof--would be communicated in such a way.

[Pops]

Actually the reason I brought up the safehaven thing wasn’t about snowball or comets or the poleshift or any other doomer fantasies. We only do that around here in jest

It was regarding the how the combined effects of inflation, credit bubbles and oil prices/peak could play serious havoc with the economy.

[Pops]

I asked facetiously; “Any thoughts on what terrible economy shaking thing might have already happened - from you folks here on Peak Oil News?”

I wasn’t inferring Snowball, pole-shift, planet X, Chem-trails, or black helicopters.

I was inferring PEAK OIL!

[WaterBearer]

Pops, do you honestly think (or suspect, as it were) that the M-3 thing is a direct reaction to the reality of Peak Oil? Seeing the link today that shows the price of crude actually remaining stable with the Euro has my mind giong in many directions. Obviously that could simply be a statistical anomoly whereby the Euro has been growing in value at a similar rate to oil itslef, and I could just chalk it up to coincidence.

However if it's already known that the US Economy was literally a ticking time-bomb and those in the know are trying to prepare for it (and the reasons are obvious why they'd keep such knowledge to themselves) in the immediate future, I can see why Opec would be moving to the Euro.

In fact it lends the idea credence because Opec does need our fantastic demand to maintain their economies, just like we need their oil. You'd need a good reason to shaft your main customer in that situation, especially when we the customer have already shown that we are willing to militarily accomplish our energy, economic and geopolitical goals.

[McBain]

I'm just saying that if you look at the data on the federal reserve's site, the increase seems pretty normal and consistent with monthly increases of the money supply. Why is this increase such a sign of bad things to come?

[Pops]

Actually WB it was mere past midnight speculation.

Those folks are obviously shilling their “safehaven” fund, and their certainly could be a logical reason they are electing to withhold from the sheep. On the other hand if they suspected a problem as big as their claims they certainly would trumpet it, wouldn’t they? Unless of course they thought it might be a BIG correction in the equity markets.


Don’t listen to me on any of these topics, I don’t know nothin’, just hoping someone out there will see how foolish I am and teach me something.

[WaterBearer]

We do seem to be at a point now where, as Fidel Castro put it back in February, the US economy is hanging by a thread. Additionally, almost all of the market's incentives for movement are looking negative. Fear here fear there, fear everywhere. This website doesn't help, I'm sure <grin> but it's not like many of us are benefactors of the system rather than its users/cogs.

[WaterBearer]

I am in the same boat, pops. Precisely.

I used to meddle around in commodity markets, trying to reproduce Gann's work from the post-depression days. But I don't actually understand why or how money behaves, or the reasons behind the actions of those who control its flow. To me, of course, this is just all the more ominous for humanity's future, since going back to the days of REAL supply & demand rather than synthetic supply & demand is obviously going to be quite the kick in the a$$.

[Aaron]

Great Hoax... <insert nervous sigh>

Unlike most popular hoaxes, this one expires next Tuesday or Wednesday right?

Not very hoax-like is it? I mean they only get to enjoy the hoax for a little while. A prediction further in the future seems less believable, so maybe that's the angle.

It seems pretty unlikely this sort of thing could be covered up for very long, especially this close to the events.

Then again, we have had several near misses in recent memory which "came out of nowhere", because we simply didn't see them coming.

Man I hate this stuf...

[WaterBearer]

If it makes you feel any better, Aaron... if hell does indeed start falling out of the sky I plan on standing between it and the Earth. And fighting it back.

[JLK]

The data is interesting, but I don't see a big increase in the M3.

[WaterBearer]

Well I personally hope the tide goes out on these websites, and, like our exhaulted emperor, we will see them for their lack of clothes.

To take a tangent on your signature.

[elrod]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', 'G')reat Hoax... <insert nervous sigh>

Unlike most popular hoaxes, this one expires next Tuesday or Wednesday right?

Not very hoax-like is it? I mean they only get to enjoy the hoax for a little while. A prediction further in the future seems less believable, so maybe that's the angle.

It seems pretty unlikely this sort of thing could be covered up for very long, especially this close to the events.

Then again, we have had several near misses in recent memory which "came out of nowhere", because we simply didn't see them coming.

Man I hate this stuf...

[GEGA]

I read the linked article on the bushcountry website. The hoaxsters paid tribute to a great hoax by having one of the meteors go over Grover's Mill, New Jersey - the site of the Martian invasion in Orson Wells' radio adaptation of H.G. Wells' War of the Worlds.

[Carrie]

Aussie Bloke is definitely a hoax. The real Dr. Gartrell was contacted, and seems pretty put out about the whole thing.

He said, $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') am very displeased to be caught up in a hoax in this way, and while I do not regard myself as a vindictive person, I do not think that I would be too upset at this moment if a small “personal sized” heavenly body fell out of the sky and flattened “Aussie Bloke”, or at least knocked some integrity into him.

[gg3]

Welcome to the twilight zone, folks. No sooner does one set foot in the realm of macro-crises or other discontinuities or paradigm-changing events, when one also encounters scores upon scores of wild, weird, and paranoid stuff. And there are entire species of hoaxes and frauds that are particular to this scene as well.

A friend of mine with considerable background in physics and a strong commitment to sustainble technology ran into similar when he started looking into the research efforts on the zero-point field theory. At one end you get the professional scientists who speak in cautious tones. In the middle you get a large crop of small-scale inventors and engineers, some of whom are honest and some of whom are just seeking to scam investors (same as in any field). At the other end you get some Really Weird Stuff.

The Seattle event was an interesting coincidence. Those things drop out of the sky all the time. The purported tape of a military intercept is a complete fraud. I could create another one of those on a 4-track recorder in about three hours. And it doesn't even sound like a real military intercept, it sounds like an LSD-influenced version of a 1980s retro-remake of a 1950s sci-fi radio drama. Though I have to give them credit for their little sound effect that sounds vaguely metallic and comes in a fairly even rhythm of 5 bursts repeated. It was an entertaining "musical" backdrop that actually conveyed a sense of suspense.

Understand this about human psychology: emotions come first, and reason follows along with an explanation. By which I mean: emotions are a feedback mechanism for evaluation & decision making. However they also create perceptual filters, so the content that stimulates an emotion leads to more awareness of similar content, leading to persistence of the emotion, etc. If the emotionally-filtered perceptual data match the individual's criteria for consistency, then a "rational" explanation is created a-posteriori, and projected forward in time as an explanatory mechanism for subsequent events that fit the pattern.

We're supposed to be more rational than that. By which I mean, if you have anything like a decent understanding of how your own mind works, you can watch these processes run, and make decisions that are not entangled with the emotional feedback loops. "Mindfulness meditation" exercises are actually quite helpful at developing that kind of rational detachment from unconscious processes, by making more of those processes conscious. I can say more about this if anyone's interested.