[dub_scratch]

KennyBeeAK,

Thanks for replying to this thread.

I pretty much agree with your opinions on your post. It's just that you have mistaken me for GoIllini in your quotes. I sharply disagree with everything in them as well.

Your post should look like this:



$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KennyBeeAK should have ', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GoIllini', 'd')ub_scratch wrote:

When peak oil hits, we won't have to go from 22 mbpd consumption to 0 overnight. In fact, even if cars have a 10 or even 18 year life cycle, we can simply replace them as they go off the road to offset even a 5% decline. Assuming only a 2% decline, we can replace them with the market doing 80-90% of the work.

[KennyBeeAK]

Thanks for the correction. I'll try to be more careful.

[dub_scratch]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GoIllini', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dub_scratch', '
')On top of that we have the costs of 220 million EVs of an approximate price tag of 5 trillion. And then we have billions of miles of road infrastructure that is very old and has to be replaced, say another 2 trillion.

[GoIllini]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dub_scratch', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GoIllini', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dub_scratch', '
')On top of that we have the costs of 220 million EVs of an approximate price tag of 5 trillion. And then we have billions of miles of road infrastructure that is very old and has to be replaced, say another 2 trillion.

[KennyBeeAK]

Looks to me like you're assuming the oil supply to the U.S. will decline at roughly the same rate as does total world petroleum production. If so, that is not taking account of increased demand from India, China, and other newly industrializing countries. Lately China's economy has been growing at around 8% annually.

This worldwide economic growth will come to a screeching halt once we pass Peak Oil, and then start declining. But population growth will continue, so per capita GDP will decline more rapidly than will the decline in world oil production, even while prices rapidly increase for motor vehicle fuels. Most people won't be able to afford new vehicles, hybrid or otherwise, but soon they won't be able to afford fuel for the old gas-guzzlers. These will sit until the people default on their mortgages and lose their homes. Then the primary function of the old Hummers and SUVs will be housing rather than transportation.

Please include this factor in your calculations.

[familyradio]

Any stock market investors here? I am one who believes oil prices are going to $120 a barrel very soon and I'm putting my money where my mouth is. I've had my eye on stock symbol ZP over the last several years. This stock has been hammered recently, but a rebound finally came as ZP has turned around and had a record month of auto sales last month. Today ZP traded to a high of 3.60. That's not bad considering ZP was down to the .20s a few months ago. ZP is now listed back on the NASDAQ. Anyone else like this play on high oil prices and micro / electric cars?

[Revi]

I think people who want to continue moving around will be in Neighborhood electric vehicles and not in regular cars soon. They can be charged off of the existing grid and get you around town just fine. Park one in a solar garage and it charges itself while you work. What's the problem? When you want to go farther away, take the bus. It's coming and soon. I have been taking the train and getting around on busses. The number of people without cars is large already large and growing.

I wonder why people are planning so much for a car dominated future? I have had 5 cars in the past 10 years. I still have a 35 year old bicycle in my garage. It still runs. Half of my old cars are in the junkyard. Five years from now those SUV's from the 90's will be going to the knacker too. Why plan a whole culture around something that won't live as long as a cat? NEV's should outlive the cars that they will replace. They will be built with lightweight, but more durable materials. We are working on a solar NEV right now with high school kids. These things could be built by small plants no problem. The fossil fuel car manufacturers may not even be in the business of providing transportation soon. Who needs them?

[KennyBeeAK]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('familyradio', 'A')ny stock market investors here? I am one who believes oil prices are going to $120 a barrel very soon and I'm putting my money where my mouth is. I've had my eye on stock symbol ZP over the last several years... Anyone else like this play on high oil prices and micro / electric cars?

[KennyBeeAK]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'W')hat's the problem? When you want to go farther away, take the bus. It's coming and soon. I have been taking the train and getting around on busses. The number of people without cars is large already large and growing.

[Revi]

Busses got really bad in the 70's and 80's. They are much better now. The bus stations are cleaned up and the bathrooms are not a scary place to be avoided unless you wanted to be robbed. The Port Authority in NYC has even been improved greatly. I believe the reason is that there is a new group of people riding the bus. They are young and doing ok. Most are recent immigrants from other countries. Others don't want to drive long distances to cities. There is a whole new culture in this country and it resembles the people who live in the rest of the world. Mass transit isn't scary anymore. Regular people take it again. Those of us who grew up during the bad bus years have an aversion to it, but the world has changed. For the better.

[Revi]

Busses got really bad in the 70's and 80's. They are much better now. The bus stations are cleaned up and the bathrooms are not a scary place to be avoided unless you wanted to be robbed. The Port Authority in NYC has even been improved greatly. I believe the reason is that there is a new group of people riding the bus. They are young and doing ok. Most are recent immigrants from other countries. Others don't want to drive long distances to cities. There is a whole new culture in this country and it resembles the people who live in the rest of the world. Mass transit isn't scary anymore. Regular people take it again. Those of us who grew up during the bad bus years have an aversion to it, but the world has changed. For the better.