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Systems Dynamics and Energy Modeling

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.

Systems Dynamics and Energy Modeling

Unread postby Gecko » Wed 15 Mar 2006, 02:27:03

As I understand it the life cycle theory of M. King Hubbert (who came up with the peak oil concept) can be modelled using systems dynamics tools and techniques.

Attached is a link to an article that reviews work on systems dynamics and energy modeling:
[web]http://www.hubbertpeak.com/hubbert/SystemDynamicsEnergyModeling/[/web]

I find the notion of systems modeling fascinating, especially within the context of energy modeling. The only problem, though, is that I have not been able to find recent references to work in this regard. The linked article above summarises work that has been done but it seems that most of the work took place in the 70's and 80's, with the most recent work referenced dating back to 1996.

Does anyone know of more recent work on energy modeling - I would have thought this to be highly topical given very high oil prices - or has systems dynamics approaches been discarded/abandoned?
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Re: Systems Dynamics and Energy Modeling

Unread postby EnergySpin » Wed 15 Mar 2006, 03:08:12

On the contrary, they are out there but the field's terminology has diversified.
In essence, systems dynamics is nothing more than modelling using ordinary differential equations. So you could try searching for these terms along with "exergy".
IIRC there are a couple of open source software packages that allow one to do emergy modelling (emergy is a concept that Odum put forward in the 60s-70s) at home. If you are looking for something with a GUI that can run everywhere you may try: http://emsim.sourceforge.net/
If you want to do something more interesting than the mental masturbation that people usually do with these tools, you should consider purchasing an introductory text in difference/differential equations.
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Re: Systems Dynamics and Energy Modeling

Unread postby jimk » Fri 17 Mar 2006, 02:58:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gecko', '
')
Does anyone know of more recent work on energy modeling


Here http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1626/ is an interesting essay, Shaping the Next One Hundred Years: New Methods for Quantitative, Long-Term Policy Analysis By: Robert Lempert, Steven W. Popper, Steven C. Bankes .

This was put together in 2003. What's tricky in all this is that nobody really knows the right differential equations & initial conditions, yet any forecast is quite sensitive to these. Just the climate is extremely difficult, forget about the economy. This RAND approach of robust planning, trying out a variety of scenarios and picking one that doesn't end in disaster very often... it's like a diversified investment portfolio. Not likely to get rich, but not likely to get poor either. Managing risk.

Of course, one still needs to come up with a decent set of scenarios!
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Re: Systems Dynamics and Energy Modeling

Unread postby Doly » Fri 17 Mar 2006, 07:12:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergySpin', 'I')f you want to do something more interesting than the mental masturbation that people usually do with these tools, you should consider purchasing an introductory text in difference/differential equations.


Been there, done that, and my conclusion is that any model that is complex enough to give meaningful results is too complex to analyse. So you are back to the simple old method of trying a lot of different parameters and see what happens.

I find world modelling very interesting, and I have the World3 model in my PC (year 93 version). If anybody else is using the World3 model, I'd be interested in comparing notes.
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