[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', ' ')Sorry I do not have unlimited time online and have to pick the threads I read, the first Devil's Advocate thread was not one which I have taken time to read.

[Graeme]

I think most people now acknowledge the reality of peak oil. However, what is difficult is predicting the consequences and our reaction. If we just focus on the oil and gas, then the consequences will be catastrophic. There are other options which we can and will use to mitigate the effects of peak oil. Will these be implemented on a large scale in a timely manner? We will just have to wait and see, and be creative!

[Graeme]

In case you missed the cryptic comment I made in the last sentence of my previous post, I was referring to my new signature below.

[Aaron]

Comment on my blog...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hinking Again said...
Aaron, the critical feature of deductive reasoning that is often ignored is that this reasoning is based on a set of assumptions. We must first accept the assumptions and then proceed from there.

In the service of clarifying the situation, I wish you had identified your assumptions but since you haven't done so explicitly, I'd like to make a stab at what they might be:

1) The past is a guide to the future. We can expect the future to be similar to what's happened in the recent past.
2) The history of human civilization is a triumphant march of success upon success.

The problem I have with assumption #2 is that history is written by the winners, and most people's understanding of human history is weak. It's important to recognize that there have been many spectacular failures of powerful civilizations. You should remember that the fall of Rome was succeeded by a millennium of "dark ages". There was a brilliant civilization in the Yucatan that disappeared a long time ago and left only relics and language fragments. If you want to use the past as a guide to the future, you should keep in mind that civilizations generally fail at some point.

The problem with using the past as a guide to the future is that you can pick whichever aspect of the past supports your argument, and ignore the other parts. This is called "cherrypicking".

The people predicting oil depletion and the ensuing economic hardships are engaging in inductive reasoning. This involves taking known things, such as known oil reserves, patterns in oil discovery and consumption, and the laws of thermodynamics, and using this information to project from the present into the future. Some of these people know what they are talking about.

I don't think it's a good idea to trustingly sit around and faithfully hope that "they" (whoever they are) will invent a fix for our current - uh - fix. The best projections for the peak of oil production range from "right now" to ten years from now. As soon as production starts declining, the troubles will expand. Meanwhile, the best guess for a fusion reactor is about 40 years in the future. The Hirsch Report pointed out that developing infrastructure to partially mitigate the loss of oil and replace it with alternatives will take on the order of 10 or 20 years.

Will someone invent a miracle energy source in the next ten years, and find a way to scale it up tremendously in only a few years, in the face of possibly crashing economies and resource wars? Personally, I think it would be much better if we all parked our cars and started using public transportation.

9:40 AM


Andrew said...
I suggest you read "Collapse, How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed", by Jared Diamond. There is ample evidence that humanity has not always "innovated" out of an poulation overshoot/resource depletion scenario.

[crapattack]

Graeme:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')I think most people now acknowledge the reality of peak oil.

[crapattack]

Great post Aaron, some very well thought-out and salient points, except for the last bit, I was right there.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')ersonally, I think it would be much better if we all parked our cars and started using public transportation.

[Battle_Scarred_Galactico]

"Personally, I think it would be much better if we all parked our cars and started using public transportation."

I hate to bring up the not so unimportant point of all the jobs linked to auto-industry. You can't just rip a huge chunk of the bricks from the bottom of a wall and expect it to stay standing.

[crapattack]

Battle_Scarred_Galactico:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')I hate to bring up the not so unimportant point of all the jobs linked to auto-industry. You can't just rip a huge chunk of the bricks from the bottom of a wall and expect it to stay standing.

[JustinFrankl]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('crapattack', 'B')attle_Scarred_Galactico:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') hate to bring up the not so unimportant point of all the jobs linked to auto-industry. You can't just rip a huge chunk of the bricks from the bottom of a wall and expect it to stay standing.

[Nalathani]

I'd have the say the biggest fault with said argument is each of the societies or groups that "rebounded" were secluded from the rest of the world's economies. This is no longer the case for ANYONE. If China is screwed, so are we, because they produce most of our goods. If we down the tubes, most 3rd world nations receiving aid will whither and fail. Etc etc. If any part of the world suffers a depression in the year 2006+, the rest of the world will feel it...and hard. There will be nowhere to run, no safe place to rebound to. That is why we need to worry about it. All the technological advances that your grandfather saw in his lifetime were because we had so much cheap oil. We may see such advances again, but only after the PO collapse, when humanity stabalizes its population size, and can again rise up and develop technologies again. This will take much time, and will only happen if we brace ourselves now for the power-down to come.