[lorenzo]

There are many similations out there, but most seem to agree on the following:

-Southern Africa (Angola, South Africa, Namibia, Botswana, Mozambique, Malawi, Zambia, Zimbabwe) will become drier and drier
-Central Africa (DRCongo, RCongo, Central African Republic, Gabon, Cameroon) will become wetter
-Central East Africa (Kenya, Tanzania, Somalia, Ethiopia) will gain most in rainfall
-The Sahel and the Senegal basin (Southern Sudan, Chad, Niger, Senegal) will gain too
-North Africa and West Africa (with Nigeria) will lose and become drier

The good news is that the Sahel will see a serious increase in rainfall, by up to 15% (some simulations show even 30%). Given that this is a sparsely populated area and a really vast one, it will make up in food production capacity for what's going to be lost in Southern Africa.

(Mods, I hope the following map doesn't take too much bandwith):




A Continent Split by Climate Change:
New Study Projects Stronger Drought in Southern Africa, More Rain in Sahel
http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases/2005/hurrell.shtml
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')A different process appears to shape rainfall in the Sahel. When sea-surface temperatures are warmer in the South Atlantic than in the North, it pulls the Sahelian monsoon cycle south as well, depriving the region of its usual rains.

"This was the situation during much of the latter half of the 20th century," says Hurrell. "We believe the North Atlantic Ocean cooling was natural and masked an expected greenhouse-gas warming effect."

Since 1990, the sea-surface temperature pattern has reversed, warming more rapidly in the North Atlantic than in the South. The models examined by Hurrell and Hoerling show this trend intensifying in future decades. They project that the Sahel monsoon will be some 20% to 30% wetter by 2049 compared to the 1950-99 average.

[backstop]

Three points worth noting -

1/. The map above is from the more optimstic end of the several studies published of African Rains projections,

2/. Even a 10% drop can end subsistence farming if it cuts the vital wet-season rains in particular,

3/. These are necessarily average reductions, which of course cannot show the increased impact of extreme events around the average.


In sum, what we're looking at is a map of the growing genocide due primarily to wealthy nations' pollution.

Those who want to do something about it may be interested by :

www.gci.org.uk


regards,

Backstop

[Zardoz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lorenzo', 'T')here are many similations out there, but most seem to agree on the following:

-Central East Africa (Kenya, Tanzania, Somalia, Ethiopia) will gain most in rainfall.

[Starvid]

The Sahel region will get more rain due to a phenomenon known as "global dimming". This is the emission of particulates to the atmosphere. As particulate emissions have fallen in Europe as the environment has become cleaner and global dimming goes away, the rains will return to Sahel.

Ironically, global dimming also works in the opposite direction of global warming. When less particulates are emitted the rise in temperatures accelerate. That's clean coal for ya.

[erl]

I wasn't sure on which forum to post this, but I found it profoundly disturbing and sad. So much so, that I am going to stop posting and make this my last thread for a while. I have too much else to do.

Make sure to read the letters from Cathy on the left side of the page.

All of you take care.


Africantears

[PolestaR]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('erl', 'I') wasn't sure on which forum to post this, but I found it profoundly disturbing and sad. So much so, that I am going to stop posting and make this my last thread for a while. I have too much else to do.

Make sure to read the letters from Cathy on the left side of the page.

All of you take care.


Africantears

[Chocky]

Cathy must be amazingly stupid. All the Rhodesians I know left by the early-late 90's, and they were cutting it pretty fine.

Why can't she get it into her thick head that Zimbabwe is a completely unviable place for a white person to live?

[Laurasia]

I started reading Cathy's stuff for the first time last night, after following a link on Powerswitch. I found it moving as well, but also fascinating regarding the description of Hyperinflation. Quoting prices in the millions of Zim. dollars for basic stuff like a loaf of bread - it's so reminiscient of descriptions I've read of Germany after the Great War. I mean, this was a description of one potential future being experienced right now. Apparently the food thieves come in the night to steal veggies from the plots of those who can still grow food.

Reading some of her letters has helped provide a sort of proof for me that things can actually get THAT BAD, since I tend to waver at times, and to hope irrationally that things will be okay.

Regards,

L.

[Magus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PolestaR', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('erl', 'I') wasn't sure on which forum to post this, but I found it profoundly disturbing and sad. So much so, that I am going to stop posting and make this my last thread for a while. I have too much else to do.

Make sure to read the letters from Cathy on the left side of the page.

All of you take care.


Africantears

[Chocky]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ey, obviously their prediciment is their own doing

[PolestaR]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Magus', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PolestaR', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('erl', 'I') wasn't sure on which forum to post this, but I found it profoundly disturbing and sad. So much so, that I am going to stop posting and make this my last thread for a while. I have too much else to do.

Make sure to read the letters from Cathy on the left side of the page.

All of you take care.


Africantears

[scw86]

I do empathize with those on the continent of Africa for the situation has much to do with the vastly higher standard of living that many of us in the West take for granted. Here is an interesting thread on wikipedia and there appears to only be two countries across the entire continent of Africa that were not colonized by the western Europeans.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scramble_for_Africa

So to blame their poverty on race seems a very naive view and this does not even mention the many other economic policies that keep the continent of Africa in poverty such as the practices of the IMF and World Bank by intentionally lending to corrupt governments and linking these loans to unfair trade agreements with the West has lead to enslavement by debt.

That said the ones in powered are the ones perpetuating these inequalities as we are all selfish as another poster stated. The more I look at the world the more I realize how right Nietzsche was.

In Nietzsche’s world we are all in competition for resources given that we all want to live and living requires resources. When there is an abundance of the resources that we need to survive the competition gets less violent. The desire for an easier and more enjoyable way to survive (greed), requires more resources to obtain and as a result fuels inequality. However when the abundance of resources recede to scarcity, many more will die via war and starvation over these resources as the simple ability to survive becomes harder and harder. If the above proves to be the reality that we all face today than much of the world will change as the abundant times recede and competition increases.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Friedrich_Nietzsche

[grabby]

That seems to be the case, burning low sulfer oil and taking the sulfer out of the coal plants, causes temp chagne

We need to make bumper stickers saying:

BACK TO DIRTY COAL"

or

"WE WANT ACID RAIN"

That almost sounds weird.

The moving of the Typhoon hurricanes vastly to the North for some years and then to the south in other years could be called
"Global Blinking"

[Eddie_lomax]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FireJack', 'I') imagine that as oil production declines the amount of coal burned and trees cut down will increase. Unless there is some massive population die off for whatever reason I imagine the rapid depletion of natural resouces will force those who survive to live in a world where you take nothing for granted. People can survive in the desert though, so we will probably carry on in some form in the end.

[skeptic]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lorenzo', 'T')here are many similations out there, but most seem to agree on the following:

-Southern Africa (Angola, South Africa, Namibia, Botswana, Mozambique, Malawi, Zambia, Zimbabwe) will become drier and drier

[Chocky]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 't')here appears to only be two countries across the entire continent of Africa that were not colonized by the western Europeans.

[Mesuge]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('coyote', 'I') think Africa will be only the first place to experience this desertification...

[Magus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Chocky', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ey, obviously their prediciment is their own doing

[Ibon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Mesuge', 'T')his is aboslutely pathetic, good solar cooking dish costs $200-300 per family, you can boil water, cook, can your own food etc..

[Magus]

Ethiopia

The only African nation to steadfastly resist outright occupation by the west, Ethiopia (or Abyssinia, historically) has a cultural legacy that stretches back into ancient times, before the common era. A monarchy for most of its history, Ethiopia remained independent from the west up through the "Scramble for Africa" in the late 1800s, even defeating the Italians in the Battle of Adowa on March 1, 1896. This stunned the entire western world, and Italy was forced to sign the Treaty of Addis Ababa, recognizing Ethiopia as an independent state.

Unfortunately, their luck began to deteriorate in the twentieth century, where it was doomed to a dissolution of its power. Under the regime of Haile Selassie of Ethiopia (an intriguing man), Ethiopia entered the century rapidly modernizing, all without the aid of the west, and a shining beacon of hope for Africa. Steady progress was made, with the countries first written constitution ever be adopted on July 16, 1931, and an appointed bicameral legislature was established. It was also the first time ever that non-nobles had any role in the government. In November 1955, the constitution was revised to allow greater political representation by the common populace by changing the lower house of the parliament into an elected body. Modern educational methods were implemented as modernization progressed, tempered by Ethiopian traditions.

Only briefly interrupted by the brief Italian occupation that was a result of the Second Italo-Abyssinian War (an interesting story in itself and yet another example of the west failure to prevent World War II), Ethiopia only began its present degeneration to the state it is in today after leftist radicals (likely sponsered by the Soviet Union) toppled the government.

This is an excerpt from the Wikipedia article on Haile Selassie:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')n December 13, 1960, while the emperor was on a state visit to Brazil, his Imperial Guard forces staged an unsuccessful coup attempt, briefly proclaiming Haile Selassie I's eldest son Asfa Wossen as the new Emperor. The coup d'etat was crushed by the regular Army and police forces. Upon returning he set about implementing more conservative policies, aligning Ethiopia with the West and distancing himself from the more common radical leftist African governments. The coup attempt, although lacking wide popular support, denounced by the Orthodox Church, and crushed by the Army, Air and Police forces, had gained considerable support among the students of the University and elements of the young educated technocrats in the country. It marked the beginning of an increased radicalization of Ethiopia's student population.

In 1963 the Emperor presided over the establishment of the Organisation of African Unity with the new organisation setting up its headquarters in Addis Ababa.

The increasingly radical student movement took hold in Addis Ababa University and high school campuses, and student unrest became a regular feature of Ethiopian life. Marxism took root in large segments of the Ethiopian intelligentsia. Resistance by conservative elements at the Imperial Court and Parliament, in addition to within the Ethiopian Orthodox Church, made proposals of widespread land reform policies impossible to implement, and also damaged the standing of the government.

Outside of Ethiopia, however, the Emperor continued to enjoy enormous prestige and respect. As the longest serving Head of State then in power, the Emperor was usually given precedence over all other leaders at most international state events, such as the celebration of the 2500 years of the Persian Empire, the summits of the Non-aligned movement, and the state funerals of John F. Kennedy and Charles de Gaulle. His frequent travels around the world raised Ethiopia's international image.

A devastating drought in the Province of Wollo in 1972–73 caused a large famine which was covered up by the Imperial government and kept from Haile Selassie I, who was celebrating his 80th birthday amidst much pomp and ceremony. When a BBC documentary exposed the existence and scope of the famine, the government was seriously undermined, and the Emperor's once unassailable personal popularity fell. Simultaneously, economic hardship caused by high oil prices and widespread military mutinies in the country further weakened him. Enlisted men began to seize thieir senior officers and held them hostage, demanding higher pay, better living conditions, and investigation of alleged widespread corruption in the higher ranks of the military. The Derg, a committee of low ranking military officers and enlisted men, set up to investigate the military's demands, took advantage of the government's disarray to depose Emperor Haile Selassie I on September 12, 1974. The Emperor was placed under house arrest briefly at the 4th Army Division in Addis Ababa, while most of his family were detained at the late Duke of Harrar's residence in the north of the capital. The Emperor was then moved to a house on the grounds of the old Imperial Palace where the new government set up its headquarters. Later, most of the Imperial family were imprisoned in the Central prison in Addis Ababa known as "Alem Bekagn", or "I am finished with the world".

On August 28, 1975, the state media reported that the "ex-monarch" Haile Selassie I had died on August 27, following complications from a prostate operation. His doctor, Professor Asrat Woldeyes denied that complications had occurred and rejected the government version of his death. Some believe that he was suffocated in his sleep. Witnesses came forward after the fall of the Marxist government in 1991, to reveal that the Emperor's remains had been buried beneath the president's personal office. On November 5, 2000 Emperor Haile Selassie I was given an Imperial funeral by the Ethiopian Orthodox church. The current post-communist government refused to give it the status of a state funeral.