by seb » Thu 16 Mar 2006, 03:28:40
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', 'S')eb, I'm very pleased that a fusion scientist has responded. I respectfully ask whether you would be interested to review the mathematics of the toroid model. You are in no way obliged to do this, but if you are interested, you can find it here:
MIT
Sorry, I don't have much time for it : moving from Japan to France next week.
You know, most of people think that science is true or false, black and white. This is true for maths and very theoritical physics. For other fields, scientists need dataand they can manipulate them the way they want. I can write the math to
prove you that laser fusion works. With almost the same math and other estimates, I can
prove you that this will never work. How surprising...
I suspect that we can do the same with PO. We lack good and reliable data. From this one can do the math to prove wathever he/she wants to prove. At least for the short term.
I would like to point out that the mathematical models I have found to simulate PO and field depletion are quite basic. I don't say that the geological/mathematical model of one oil field is basic. This is quite complex viscous hydro in porous media, gravity field, mixing, etc. But the global PO modeling is really really basic. Hubbert's modeling is probably too basic to give very accurate results, althought it may provide a clue on the big picture. Not more IMO. We'd better rely on future projects' data base and try to estimate if these projects can compensate the natural decline of other fields. This method will not allow us to anticipate the peak very much, may anticipate a secondary peak... but it is hard to believe that the world oil production can be deduced from the one line big Hubbert's equation. Technology plays a role, may deform the curve (cliff oil?) and even may change the amount of oil to be recovered. This is a dynamical process (time is involved) while Hubbert managed to cancel the time variable to obtain a static equation. This can be good for a first guess. I am really surprised no one has gone much further... No money to be made in PO modeling may be the reason!?
Oooops, I am off topic!

Not mother tongue. Sorry for the mistakes.