[Pops]

Mad Max and Star Trek are fiction.

I guess I’m feeling optimistic this morning after a nice little drought-denting, pasture-greening rain last night but I have a hard time seeing anything as dramatic as TDOMS (the downfall of modern society) happening anytime soon.

Oh, I fully believe, as production and transport become more expensive and the population grows, the poorest in the most overpopulated areas will indeed starve to death but that isn’t anything new; its happening today. I also can see a continuation of religious resource wars – again, history is full of those. The confluence of current structural economic problems and probable workforce displacement might well bring grief to many – but there has always been grief. The resulting political upheaval could well cause protest or worse - just like it always has.

Ethanol plants, wind farms and nuke reactors will sprout like daisies; coal and whatever other deposit that can turn a profit will be mined like mad – regardless of the impact; LNG terminals will dot the horizon, no place will be off limits to exploration and old oil wells will get squeezed a bit more when it is worth the cost. Every type of potential power ever devised will be re-implemented; from water wheels to horse-powers and I bet the Energy Fairy will indeed pull something Out Of Her Butt although it may not be a Miracle.

Along the way, houses, cars and maybe waistlines will get smaller; and shopping may not be recreation any more. Truck farms may pop up near cities or maybe people will start to grow little kitchen gardens or maybe they’ll simply give up on frizzy, baby lettuce, boc choi and radicchio. Industrial scale farming may continue to improve in efficiency or it may not, but researchers will continue to discover new names for old ways and there will be food for those who can afford it.

The kids may learn to play soccer in the street instead of 20 miles across town and walking shoes might become something more than a sporty fashion statement. People will certainly move to the better place – they always have, maybe to cities, maybe to farms or small towns or maybe to re-born company towns. Work will continue getting done, although it may be done slower and smaller and it may be more work than today.

There will be schools, churches and governments; birthdays, weddings and funerals and each new generation will think it is living in Modern Society.

[LadyRuby]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'M')ad Max and Star Trek are fiction.

I guess I’m feeling optimistic this morning after a nice little drought-denting, pasture-greening rain last night but I have a hard time seeing anything as dramatic as TDOMS (the downfall of modern society) happening anytime soon.

Oh, I fully believe, as production and transport become more expensive and the population grows, the poorest in the most overpopulated areas will indeed starve to death but that isn’t anything new; its happening today. I also can see a continuation of religious resource wars – again, history is full of those. The confluence of current structural economic problems and probable workforce displacement might well bring grief to many – but there has always been grief. The resulting political upheaval could well cause protest or worse - just like it always has.

Ethanol plants, wind farms and nuke reactors will sprout like daisies; coal and whatever other deposit that can turn a profit will be mined like mad – regardless of the impact; LNG terminals will dot the horizon, no place will be off limits to exploration and old oil wells will get squeezed a bit more when it is worth the cost. Every type of potential power ever devised will be re-implemented; from water wheels to horse-powers and I bet the Energy Fairy will indeed pull something Out Of Her Butt although it may not be a Miracle.

Along the way, houses, cars and maybe waistlines will get smaller; and shopping may not be recreation any more. Truck farms may pop up near cities or maybe people will start to grow little kitchen gardens or maybe they’ll simply give up on frizzy, baby lettuce, boc choi and radicchio. Industrial scale farming may continue to improve in efficiency or it may not, but researchers will continue to discover new names for old ways and there will be food for those who can afford it.

The kids may learn to play soccer in the street instead of 20 miles across town and walking shoes might become something more than a sporty fashion statement. People will certainly move to the better place – they always have, maybe to cities, maybe to farms or small towns or maybe to re-born company towns. Work will continue getting done, although it may be done slower and smaller and it may be more work than today.

There will be schools, churches and governments; birthdays, weddings and funerals and each new generation will think it is living in Modern Society.

[EnergySpin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('weirdo27', 'I')m just saying what if the downfall of society never happens for like a 125 years or a 100 years or 70 years.

[crapattack]

ES, you seem to think there's something wrong with making money from peak oil. Do you have a problem with the guys selling solar panels and wind turbines making a buck? Or is it just the guys like Kunstler and Heinburg that you disagree with? I recall you're more than happy to see a lot of nuke power companies and investors make a few bucks off the 'transition', yet you seem to take issue with a few writers making a living.

[Zardoz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ElijahJones', '6')0 of those 68 million people want to live in a democracy and have been pleading with American operatives for decades to give them just that....one country that has stood as a beacon of freedom for the last 200 years and thats us...The longer we wait to take action on Iran the harder it will become...120,000 fast moving armored troops move with air support right into Tehran...The world has entered a time of war the time for peace has passed us by...radical Islam has to be taken by the horns...I will die with honor, fighting for what is right, one world of peace...There comes a time when all the talk has to cease and armies must take the field. I believe God is on the side of the just and that He will decide who is righteous and who is not...We should get out of Iraq and head straigth into Iran.

[katkinkate]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ElijahJones', ' ')This is a completely inhumane option so I chose the preservation of the one country that has stood as a beacon of freedom for the last 200 years and thats us.

[thuja]

Though I tend to agree with Pops in most of his analysis- I think there is a case to be made for a "sudden dramatic event" changing how life as we know it operates. This singular event, or set of events, could be similar in initial effect to the OPEC oil embargo of the 70's...except it will never end. Radical changes will likely occur overnight. This could be ist attacks on pipeline facilities in Saudi Arabia, an Iran war, a set of hurricaines, etc. Without swing oil left in the system, we would have to deal with a dramatic shift in consumption levels without any preparation.

Unlike the 70's, however, geologic depletion pressures would never allow for oil production levels to come back up again to previous levels. I view the "sudden dramatic event" (SDE) scenario as the most likely in our future.

Not even coal, nuclear ethanol or any other energy material will be able to be set in place to deal with the massive overnight loss of oil. PLans will be immediately devised for getting these things on board but the economic and personal impact will be immediate and intense. In the first world these things will be gas lines, food shortages and job losses....overnight. With the lack of swing this could happen today, tomorrow or 5 years from now. We are simply waiting for the SDE to happen at this point. And it could come from many different quarters.

[Pops]

All true Thuja.

I guess my point was that turning points have been turned in the past and most didn’t collapse the modern societies of the time. There have been Tonkin Gulfs, Pearl Harbors - Trojan Horses and Waterloos for that matter and the basics endured – aside from the most isolated examples of course. Oh, there were changes in society, as I’m sure even we of sufficient age have seen in our lifetimes and certainly will see in the future, but not a collapse.

I guess it boils down to how Society defines society; American Heritage says:

so·ci·e·ty (sə-sī'ĭ-tē)
n., pl. -ties.
1.
a. The totality of social relationships among humans.
b. A group of humans broadly distinguished from other groups by mutual interests, participation in characteristic relationships, shared institutions, and a common culture.
c. The institutions and culture of a distinct self-perpetuating group.

Wikipedia says:
society
A society is a self-perpetuating grouping of individuals occupying a particular territory, which may have its own distinctive culture and institutions.


So if the basis of our society is cheap energy and all the cheap things we get through it, then yea, an overnight oil shock will bring it down and we’ll kill each other to get those, then, no longer cheap things at the expense of the social veneer we’ve assumed.

Conversely, if the basis of our society has more to do with our relationships with family and community, then perhaps the elimination of all the cheap stuff will eliminate our temporary infatuation with those shiny little nothings. After a withdrawal period much as you describe of course…


Perhaps that describes the difference between Landers and Doomers.

[crapattack]

There's a difference between a society and a remnant population. The Roman Empire doesn't exist anymore, but there are descendants. The Mayans don't exist anymore either, and the North American Indian is a largely remnant population stuggling to keep the scraps from disintegrating into history. There are Egyptians left on the planet, but not the great societies of the Pharohs. The ancient Spartans are long gone as are the Creteans, and in Pompei we see how well these guys prepared. The Vikings and Druids are no longer around either. 250,000 Sri Lankans living on the coast are washed away, and 5 million Pakastanis are left homeless from earthquake and still we think that nothing bad can ever happen to us. Easter Islanders were great carvers. Apparently Atlantis sunk into the sea and is only a myth now, and yesterday the southern most tip of Canada washed away in a storm. The "no swimming" sign on that sandy spit ended up in Ohio. The only constant is change and those who think our civilization is immune should consider New Orleans carefully. No doubt humans will continue to exist provided climate change isn't too dramatic, but as a species we've already been "culled" by nature or our own agency many times.

[Jake_old]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('crapattack', 'T')here's a difference between a society and a remnant population. The Roman Empire doesn't exist anymore, but there are descendants. The Mayans don't exist anymore either, and the North American Indian is a largely remnant population stuggling to keep the scraps from disintegrating into history. There are Egyptians left on the planet, but not the great societies of the Pharohs. The ancient Spartans are long gone as are the Creteans, and in Pompei we see how well these guys prepared. The Vikings and Druids are no longer around either. 250,000 Sri Lankans living on the coast are washed away, and 5 million Pakastanis are left homeless from earthquake and still we think that nothing bad can ever happen to us. Easter Islanders were great carvers. Apparently Atlantis sunk into the sea and is only a myth now, and yesterday the southern most tip of Canada washed away in a storm. The "no swimming" sign on that sandy spit ended up in Ohio. The only constant is change and those who think our civilization is immune should consider New Orleans carefully. No doubt humans will continue to exist provided climate change isn't too dramatic, but as a species we've already been "culled" by nature or our own agency many times.

[crapattack]

RedJake wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')That makes me feel good but the Britons lost the fight though Sad

and Tacitus wrote after the conquest of Britain

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '.')...and so the population was gradually lead into the demoralising temptations of arcades, baths and sumptuous banquets. The unsuspecting Britons spoke of such novelties as civilisation when in fact they were a feature of their enslavement.

[Zardoz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', '.')..I think there is a case to be made for a "sudden dramatic event"...it will never end. Radical changes will likely occur overnight...attacks on pipeline facilities in Saudi Arabia, an Iran war, a set of hurricaines, etc.

...I view the "sudden dramatic event" (SDE) scenario as the most likely in our future...Not even coal, nuclear, ethanol or any other energy material will be able to be set in place to deal with the massive overnight loss of oil....We are simply waiting for the SDE to happen at this point. And it could come from many different quarters.

[TheTurtle]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', ' ')many will be unable to make the psychological adjustment to a life of relative deprivation (compared to our current lives of wild over-abundance) and will fall by the wayside, but most of us won't. Most of us will get tougher, if only because we will have no other option.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', 'M')ost of us will get tougher, if only because we will have no other option.

[Battle_Scarred_Galactico]

The unsuspecting Britons spoke of such novelties as civilisation when in fact they were a feature of their enslavement.


The more things change, the more they stay the same...

[Hermes]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('weirdo27', 'I')m just saying what if the downfall of society never happens for like...?

[Zardoz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hermes', 'T')o view it as a process that has begun, and is potentially gradual but often manifests itself in periodic cataclysmic events...I think that viewing the downfall in these terms may be more helpful than viewing it as one clear event.

I don't think that there is ever going to be a clear 'end' to it, perhaps not even a clear beginning to the 'end'.