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US Production down 6.3%

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US Production down 6.3%

Postby J-Rod » Thu 09 Mar 2006, 14:34:47

Numbers here:

API

That's quite a drop over a year, no?
Reality is agreed perception. Unfortunately there is also a reality imposed by nature.
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Re: US Production down 6.3%

Postby mrflora » Thu 09 Mar 2006, 14:50:35

Part of the drop from Jan. 2005- Jan. 2006 is due to hurricane damage in the Gulf of Mexico. I think about 500,000 b/d (nearly 1/3 of Gulf total) is still offline.

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Re: US Production down 6.3%

Postby kmann » Thu 09 Mar 2006, 14:57:06

348,000 barrels per day still offline due to hurricanes, cumulative production lost, 134,522,189 bbls.

Shut-in Statistics Report as of Wednesday, March 8, 2006
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Re: US Production down 6.3%

Postby mrflora » Thu 09 Mar 2006, 15:00:10

Part of the drop from Jan. 2005- Jan. 2006 is due to hurricane damage in the Gulf of Mexico. I think about 500,000 b/d (nearly 1/3 of Gulf total) is still offline.

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Re: US Production down 6.3%

Postby Cynus » Thu 09 Mar 2006, 16:38:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mrflora', ' ')I think about 500,000 b/d (nearly 1/3 of Gulf total) is still offline.


Norway is down 18%, or 528,000 bpd, Nigeria is down 500,000 bpd. That's 1.5 mil for just 3 countries! Not to mention Mexico, UK, Indonesia, etc. I can't believe that the price of oil is down and inventories are at record levels. Something doesn't add up.
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Re: US Production down 6.3%

Postby Taskforce_Unity » Thu 09 Mar 2006, 19:42:48

This 18% number for Norway is quite misleading because it counts over 2 years....
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Re: US Production down 6.3%

Postby LadyRuby » Thu 09 Mar 2006, 23:15:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Taskforce_Unity', 'T')his 18% number for Norway is quite misleading because it counts over 2 years....


That's right, Norway's down about 7% this year (this Feb over last Feb) and down about 11 percent from 2004 to 2005. So if that's averaged (a decline of 9.2% a year), in only 7 years they'll be producing about half as much as they are now.
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Re: US Production down 6.3%

Postby peaker_2005 » Fri 10 Mar 2006, 00:24:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kmann', '3')48,000 barrels per day still offline due to hurricanes, cumulative production lost, 134,522,189 bbls.

Shut-in Statistics Report as of Wednesday, March 8, 2006


Something tells me they won't get around to getting it back online...
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Re: US Production down 6.3%

Postby kochevnik » Fri 10 Mar 2006, 00:26:59

:!:

From the front page :

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')WASHINGTON -- Much of the oil and natural gas production still shut-in after last year's hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico will stay offline because it would not be economical for companies to rebuild the production platforms, Energy Secretary Sam Bodman told Congress today.

About 255,000 barrels per day in crude oil production and 400 million cubic feet of natural gas output is expected to still be offline in the Gulf of Mexico at the June 1 start date of the 2006 hurricane season, according to the government. That represents 17 percent of pre-hurricane daily Gulf oil production and 4 percent of gas output.

"By and large those production platforms that are out are not going to be put back because it's not economically desirable to reinvest to put those facilities back in place," Bodman told the House Energy and Commerce Committee during a hearing on the Energy Department's proposed 2007 budget.



So I'm sure we'll have some anti-Doomers who will assure us that once oil reaches a price of X dollars that they'll be sure to put that oil back into production (NOT).

17 percent is a boatload - and another hurricaine season approaches - altho this year I think Florida will get whacked the worst (just a hunch).
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Re: US Production down 6.3%

Postby pup55 » Fri 10 Mar 2006, 09:21:12

I'm still amazed at the rig count. Only 1/3 as many rigs operating today in North America compared to 1981.

Also note that along with the 6% lower production, consumption (deliveries) has only increased 1.6% in the last year. The 3% increase in imports is evidently making up the difference.
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Re: US Production down 6.3%

Postby dukey » Fri 10 Mar 2006, 10:08:47

i have been wondering about UK natural gas
seeing as how it was supposed to be a catastrophe if we had a cold winter, and it has been a fairly cold winter
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Re: US Production down 6.3%

Postby kmann » Fri 10 Mar 2006, 11:57:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('peaker_2005', '
')Something tells me they won't get around to getting it back online...


Last I heard about 200,000 will probably be lost permanently. The reports come out every 2 weeks, and oil has been coming back online at roughly 10,000 bbls per report lately.
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Re: US Production down 6.3%

Postby The_Virginian » Fri 10 Mar 2006, 14:10:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cynus', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mrflora', ' ')I think about 500,000 b/d (nearly 1/3 of Gulf total) is still offline.


Norway is down 18%, or 528,000 bpd, Nigeria is down 500,000 bpd. That's 1.5 mil for just 3 countries! Not to mention Mexico, UK, Indonesia, etc. I can't believe that the price of oil is down and inventories are at record levels. Something doesn't add up.


Recession-Depresion demand destruction despite current cuts in production...
[urlhttp://www.youtube.com/watchv=Ai4te4daLZs&feature=related[/url] "My soul longs for the candle and the spices. If only you would pour me a cup of wine for Havdalah...My heart yearning, I shall lift up my eyes to g-d, who provides for my needs day and night."
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Re: US Production down 6.3%

Postby DantesPeak » Fri 10 Mar 2006, 14:17:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cynus', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mrflora', ' ')I think about 500,000 b/d (nearly 1/3 of Gulf total) is still offline.


Norway is down 18%, or 528,000 bpd, Nigeria is down 500,000 bpd. That's 1.5 mil for just 3 countries! Not to mention Mexico, UK, Indonesia, etc. I can't believe that the price of oil is down and inventories are at record levels. Something doesn't add up.


On inventories - 30 million comes directly from SPR drawdowns/transfers - which doesn't even count the gasoline transferred from Europe under the IEA emergency program.

Take those away, and the situation will be critical. While 'Old Europe' saved US gasoline inventories this last six months, they won't be helping as much after the conversion from MTBE gasoline to Ethanol gasoline.
Oil inventories will be a side show compared to the coming gasoline inventory drawdowns.
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Re: US Production down 6.3%

Postby pip » Fri 10 Mar 2006, 14:28:41

[quote="The_Virginian"Recession-Depresion demand destruction despite current cuts in production...[/quote]Last DOE report has gasoline and diesel consumption up 2%+ versus last year.
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Re: US Production down 6.3%

Postby oilluber » Fri 10 Mar 2006, 21:06:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cynus', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mrflora', ' ')I think about 500,000 b/d (nearly 1/3 of Gulf total) is still offline.


Norway is down 18%, or 528,000 bpd, Nigeria is down 500,000 bpd. That's 1.5 mil for just 3 countries! Not to mention Mexico, UK, Indonesia, etc. I can't believe that the price of oil is down and inventories are at record levels. Something doesn't add up.


I do believe that Henry Groppe and other long time oil analysts have
stated that the method used to collect inventory data is full of erroor and
is only useful for the traders,,, otherwise, it may be good to ignore
the inventory reports. The traders love it, as an investor, you cannot
assume that the figures actually reflect or directly correlated with
oil supply and demand. The numbers do not accurately reflect the amount in storage, transit etc.
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Re: US Production down 6.3%

Postby oilluber » Fri 10 Mar 2006, 21:07:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', 'I')'m still amazed at the rig count. Only 1/3 as many rigs operating today in North America compared to 1981.

Also note that along with the 6% lower production, consumption (deliveries) has only increased 1.6% in the last year. The 3% increase in imports is evidently making up the difference.


I just don't understand why this is so hard for you to understand.
Conventional oil discoveries and production from them has been on
a decline. Why would anyone put more rigs in the usual dried out places.

You should look at mining pits, as in the canadian oil sands,,, now
that is where the new production is, and the "rig count" there is up big time.
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Re: US Production down 6.3%

Postby Frozen-Stick » Sat 11 Mar 2006, 18:10:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dukey', 'i') have been wondering about UK natural gas
seeing as how it was supposed to be a catastrophe if we had a cold winter, and it has been a fairly cold winter


That was the same question for me. But there is the website for the "Interconnector" ( http://www.interconnector.com). It's the gas pipeline between Belgium and England.

The page says a little bit downwards:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"') 23 February 2006: A record reverse flow was achieved on gas day 22 February 2006 when more than 511 GWh (or 47.6 million cubic meters) of gas was transported through the Interconnector system. On an annual basis, this equates to around 16.4 bcm/y (billion cubic meters per year).

6 February 2006: Following the flow transition into UK import mode and the commissioning of the enhancement to UK import capacity on 8 November 2005, the Interconnector has imported over 23,000 GWh (~2 bcm) of gas into the UK. The previous record was set last winter when 20,600 GWh of gas was imported into the UK.


The UK import capacity of the Interconnector was increased from 8.5 bcm/y to 16.5 bcm/y on 8 November 2005. A second phase enhancement, due to be completed by December 2006, is progressing to schedule and will bring the UK import capacity of the system to 23.5 bcm/y."



So, if i get the text right, the pipeline was near maximum (16.5 bcm/y) on 23rd of february 2006 (16.4 bcm/y)! So the warning of the gas industry was right!

Analog to the BP World Energy Report 2005, UK used 98 bcm in 2004 and produced in the same time 95 bcm of natural gas. Already a difference of -3 bcm. And the decline of natural gas is much steeper than that of oil! :?
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