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Question: Why must an economy grow?

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Question: Why must an economy grow?

Unread postby shakespear1 » Tue 07 Mar 2006, 10:30:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', 'In which case you're lucky that nature is giving you an interest free loan, which you have no intention of repaying. ')

I would argue that even this loan is not Free. Hint: Katrina and Rita came to collect and were paid. :)
Men argue, nature acts !
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"...In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation."

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Re: Question: Why must an economy grow?

Unread postby MrBill » Tue 07 Mar 2006, 10:47:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shakespear1', '[')code]In which case you're lucky that nature is giving you an interest free loan, which you have no intention of repaying. [/code]

I would argue that even this loan is not Free. Hint: Katrina and Rita came to collect and were paid. :)


Unless you get lucky and die before she comes to collect! ; - )

I am sure there would be examples of very low density human populations that do manage to live in a low growth, environmentally sustainable manner, but their lessons are not readily transferable to the bad situation we find ourselves in now. With current population loads and the earth's present carrying capacity, it would be impossible even now to go back to a pastoral existance. We lack the land, the drought power, the infrastructure and the know how in many cases, plus we just have too many people to feed. Peak oil and climate change are just exacerbating those conditions.

Enjoy your life now and whatever you do, don't have children. You do not want to leave this mess for them to have to solve.
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Re: Question: Why must an economy grow?

Unread postby MacG » Tue 07 Mar 2006, 11:17:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gg3', 'M')y conclusion is: Humans have inherent flaws in their genetic programming and the societal programming that arises as a result.


I think you should broaden your studies on anthropology somewhat. The thing you call "societal programming" show tremendeous variability over time. The most important emerging field to incorporate is probably memetics
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Re: Question: Why must an economy grow?

Unread postby gg3 » Tue 07 Mar 2006, 17:11:48

MacG, I'm quite aware that there have been and still are sustainable cultures. The problem I'm concerned with is that an unsustainable culture is about to crash the planet and the inertia behind it appears to be unstoppable, and the cultural shifts needed to reverse it are unlikely on a large enough scale. Also I'm familiar with memetics, maybe you missed the reference to it in my posting (I was also going to post a link to Dawkins, Chapter 11), though I haven't seen the book you linked to (yet).

If you have any specific & practical ideas that'll help reverse the inertia that's presently building toward a crash, I'm interested.
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Re: Question: Why must an economy grow?

Unread postby rogerhb » Tue 07 Mar 2006, 17:48:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'E')verytime you rebuild a house after a fire you create employment and growth, and use resources to build it that must be paid for, unless you do all the work yourself and get the materials for free. In which case you're lucky that nature is giving you an interest free loan, which you have no intention of repaying. Even the informal economy needs inputs to sustain it.


What is the difference between rebuilding a house after a fire and replacing a worn out shoe? Does replacing a worn out shoe cause growth in the economy?

The requirement for a sustainable economy is not to use more resources than are naturally replaced. So using metal is unsustainable if you keep needing more metal. However continually using wood (and leather etc) is sustainable if the amount and rate you use it is not above the replacement rate.
"Complex problems have simple, easy to understand, wrong answers." - Henry Louis Mencken
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Re: Question: Why must an economy grow?

Unread postby MacG » Tue 07 Mar 2006, 18:01:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gg3', 'M')acG, I'm quite aware that there have been and still are sustainable cultures. The problem I'm concerned with is that an unsustainable culture is about to crash the planet and the inertia behind it appears to be unstoppable, and the cultural shifts needed to reverse it are unlikely on a large enough scale. Also I'm familiar with memetics, maybe you missed the reference to it in my posting (I was also going to post a link to Dawkins, Chapter 11), though I haven't seen the book you linked to (yet).

If you have any specific & practical ideas that'll help reverse the inertia that's presently building toward a crash, I'm interested.


Sorry. Dont see anything could reverse inertia. Most will run over the cliff/into the brick wall. No general solution to that on my horizon. The only solutions I'm into are on a close and personal level. Dig your heels into the ground and let the herd rush on. Memetics is useful there too...
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Re: Question: Why must an economy grow?

Unread postby gg3 » Wed 08 Mar 2006, 06:23:35

MacG, many of us here are coming to that conclusion. Depressing as hell: there are workable solutions to all of this but they aren't going to be implemented due to sheer stupidity and avarice and (etc.). So we dig in and hold on, and hope we're at a safe enough distance when it all blows up.
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Re: Question: Why must an economy grow?

Unread postby Raxozanne » Wed 08 Mar 2006, 10:18:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', 'W')hy population will never be steady state, at least not on a global level:
If each of the 10 kids also have 10 kids, that's 100 grandkids for family A.

Couple A are fiends who don't care about sustainabilty, so they decide to have 10 kids.

Coupbe B are advocates of sustainabililty, so they have 2 kids.

Each of Couple A's 10 kids has 10 kids.

Each of Coupble B's 2 kids have 2 kids.

So when the time comes for the grandkids' generations to fight over diminshing resources, which family is going to kill off which family?

Somebody is going to get their asses kicked and my money is on Family A wiping out Family B unles Family B manages to develop advanced killing technologies.


Yeah this is exactly it.
Even if you and your society/group/whatever manage to limit population growth and obtain a rather cushy way of life chances are very good that some other society won't bother being sustainable and then they and their progency will come and beat the living crap out of your society and bring their breeding culture with them as they take over and expand into your territory as they breed outwards.
Re. Mori Mori vs. Maori story again.
It would only work if everyone everywhere agreed to limit population growth and the chances of that happening in my book is nil especially with main religions working against this (plus tougher times usually lead to increased religious fundamentalism).
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Re: Question: Why must an economy grow?

Unread postby Ancien_Opus » Wed 08 Mar 2006, 12:01:17

This is the referred to as "The tragedy of the commons". Where the benefits go to an individual but the risk are shared by the community.

It explains basic ecological phenomena such as the impact of market hunting in the late 1800's (Passenger Pigeons & Buffalo), the cod collapse of the Grand Banks 1990's, and now global warming and resource depletion (especially metals & oil).

Privatize the benefits but socialize the risk. Sounds like a neocon sound bite.
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Re: Question: Why must an economy grow?

Unread postby shakespear1 » Wed 08 Mar 2006, 12:05:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', 'Privatize the benefits but socialize the risk. ')

I like that.
Men argue, nature acts !
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"...In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation."

Alan Greenspan
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Re: Question: Why must an economy grow?

Unread postby dbarberic » Wed 08 Mar 2006, 12:53:01

A contracting economy (recession or depression) does not get politicians re-elected.
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Re: Question: Why must an economy grow?

Unread postby MrBill » Wed 08 Mar 2006, 13:11:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shakespear1', '[')code]Privatize the benefits but socialize the risk. [/code]

I like that.


that is what we call morale hazard or the greenspan put. take the risk away and you invite speculation with no negative consequences.
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Re: Question: Why must an economy grow?

Unread postby MrBill » Wed 08 Mar 2006, 13:22:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gg3', 'M')acG, many of us here are coming to that conclusion. Depressing as hell: there are workable solutions to all of this but they aren't going to be implemented due to sheer stupidity and avarice and (etc.). So we dig in and hold on, and hope we're at a safe enough distance when it all blows up.



This and the next posts from Roxanne and Omar or whomever are the point. I can take an enlightened view and design solutions for about one sixth of humanity, but five sixths of the world's population will not buy into my solutions for religious/cultural/or other reasons like cultural imperialism. Rights are fantastics. Obligations are a drag. Until I am rich, I am not taking my foot off the accelerator or so the argument goes. My tribe versus your tribe in the great game of copulation. Ironically, good intentions aside, we used to have the same problems with half as many people to worry about, now we have the same problems with twice as many to take care of, so how enlightened do the do gooders intentions look now?
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