[PenultimateManStanding]

I see these posts about revolution and think, would the US splinter peacefully or in war if the liquid fuel crisis got bad enough? I haven't got the faintest idea of an answer. But if some prognosticators are right and the large nation-states are going to collapse in an inertial heap of unsolvable problems, it's got to go down one way or another. Might be interesting to speculate how a dissolution of The United States of America could happen. We can presume that the feds will have the best and last access to liquid fuels; but will that do them any good if chaos has descended everywhere? I bet we'd see a lot of bad actors on the scene soon.

[Dreamtwister]

If it's a small to moderate sized conflict, the government will try to maintain control by way of martial law, concentration camps and summary executions.

If it's a broad uncontrollable conflict or open revolt, they will just activate the COG and retreat under Mt. Weather, leaving us to kill eachother.

[ALBY]

Any civil strife we experience will likely break down across class lines and be largely an urban phenomenon.

I was thinking today that we are lucky that such a high percentage of our black population are christians. because if they were muslims, we'd face the prosepct of religious as well as racial strife. as it stands, i think christian beliefs have helped keep the peace on both sides.

IMO that line of thinking would apply to most christian americans. piss on their beliefs all you want, but your average christian suburbanite is not going to get right, mentally, with killing his neighbors.

Inasmuch as religionists make me want to puke when they are in their creationist or prolife guise, they undeniably have the behavioral benefit of adhering strongly to a belief system that condemns interpersonal murder.

That being said, I am one very well armed American. Just in case.

[Cynus]

I doubt that there would ever be another civil war in America, although there might be a return to very strong states rights with a weak federal government. On the other hand, I feel like the country is being pulled apart on a thousand seams: class, race, religion, politics... The amount of hostility you see either expressed openly, or feel seething beneath the surface seems to be growing daily. Can the center hold or will mere anarchy be loosed upon the world? We think that diversity is our strength, but it was always traditionally thought that unity was the strength of a nation, and unity seems to be in ever shorter supply. It reminds be other Greek philosopher Empodocles who taught that there were 2 forces in the universe, love and strife. Love was the power that brought people and things together, strife pulled them apart. Sometimes love was in dominance, and at other, strife gained ascendancy. Strife seems to be gaining the upper hand more and more.

[MicroHydro]

True civil wars require a split among the elite and the military forces they control. There is no hint of this happening.

On the other hand a revolution (like the French revolution) is a growing threat as the ruling kleptocrats have waged nonstop class war against working people for 25 years. After economic collapse, the dispossessed masses will have nothing left to lose. Thus the urgency for real ID, total information awareness, and control of the internet.

[PenultimateManStanding]

Here's a factioning possibility: one faction, seeing the SPR dangerously low, seeing the American economy crashing, will demand the projection of military means to secure oil supplies with survival the issue, while the opposition to that idea will find military backers as well. Extreme emergency results.

[MicroHydro]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', 'H')ere's a factioning possibility: one faction, seeing the SPR dangerously low, seeing the American economy crashing, will demand the projection of military means to secure oil supplies with survival the issue, while the opposition to that idea will find military backers as well. Extreme emergency results.

[PenultimateManStanding]

If the entire elite decides it's war, that doesn't neccessarily mean that opposition won't grow. However it does seem possible that the country will scream for oil.

[MicroHydro]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leaf', 'I')’m not a pessimist by heart but I’m convinced that the US is on the verge of a collapse and a major fracture and break-up, probably along ethnic lines that roughly approximate the geographical distribution of different ethnic groups.

[Ludi]

My part of the state of Tex-us seems pretty well integrated, at least between Hispanics and Pink-toned folks, I don't foresee much ethnic strife. People seem to get along pretty well here except for domestic squabbles. Even though people have very strong political opinions, I doubt they'd fight their neighbors about it. But it's hard to know what might happen really, this area suffered badly during the Civil War, when this was a hotbed of Union sympathisers.

[kochevnik]

When the times get very hard (2012 works for me) the various regions of the country will find they have particular strengths and weaknesses and these could easily serve to pull the Federal govt apart at the seams. Consider a few more Katrina type situations with much higher casualties and the same non-existent 'help' from FedGov - Civil War is not out of the question.

Or another example - the federal govt decides that the citizens of Nevada and a third of Los Angeles are to be relocated to Oregon. The state govt responds by attempting to use the Natl Guard to secure the southern border - the federal govt sends the 101st airborne in response. Small scale skirmishes erupt into full on battles with civilian refugees caught in the crossfire.

Their will be refugees in the near future and the govts will be powerless to provide for them when their revenues are cut by 50 percent due to unemployment and widespread bankruptcies. Things could get out of hand very quickly.

[0mar]

In the next 30 years?

Not a chance, not unless something truly radical happens to our culture.

As a people, Americans are among the biggest cowards. There are very few people in this country willing to die for their family, nevermind ideals.

Until we, as a people, embrace the fact that some things are bigger than our own lives, there will never be a revolution. We are simply too afraid of death.

[pedalling_faster]

it's already started.

what's the definition of civil war ?
* one group of citizens conspiring to kill another group, by violent methods (9-11)
* one group of citizens conspiring to kill another group, by withholding food & medical care (reagan inauguration, 1981)

[PrairieMule]

I am halfway through a book on Iran and it's nuke program. It mentioned if a orbiting satillite were detonated with 9lbs of plutonium over the Great plains it would create EM Pulse sending us back to the stone age. I think if a em pulse fried our communications network it would be more than a civil war and be pure anarchy. I know I couldn't bug out of Dallas. I wonder if a EM pulse was emmited say from, a shipping container or a Ryder truck, and the damage not as extensive. That would trigger martial law which would ruin everyones day.

[gnm]

I believe Prarie_Mule that EMP is only effective over wide areas if detonated at sufficent altitude etc... I don't think something like that on a container ship would do much...

-G

[PenultimateManStanding]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pedalling_faster', 'i')t's already started.

what's the definition of civil war ?
* one group of citizens conspiring to kill another group, by violent methods (9-11)
* one group of citizens conspiring to kill another group, by withholding food & medical care (reagan inauguration, 1981)

[duke3522]

Hey PMS,

First I think we need to look at the different kinds of civil war that may be possible. The first would be like the first US Civil War where a geographic part of the country wishes to withdraw from federal authority. The second type that is possible is the Rwanda/Yugoslavia type civil war where folks who have lived amongst each other for decades suddenly start killing each other.

IMO, the first type is highly unlikely. Mostly because I just cannot fathom the possibility of actual fighting between large number of US military forces. While generals may be stupid enough to believe attacking other US forces is a good idea, I have faith in the collective intelligence of the lower grade officers, non-coms, and enlisted men to not put up with such nonsense. After all, it was men just like these who, after the generals screwed things up, saved the day at places like Omaha Beach, Bastogne, and many others.

Now I might see where the feds become so weak that the US breaks up along geographic lines. After all, take a few bridges down, and rivers like the Ohio and the Mississippi become natural borders again. Places like New England, Mid Atlantic, Deep South, Great Lakes, and even Texas all by itself could become small countries.

Unfortunately, I see the neighbor killing neighbor type of civil war as much more of a possibility. If the US were suddenly plunged into a deep depression where millions were thrown out of work, millions more loose their homes, and where people are really hungry and cold/hot for the first times of their lives, the people will look for someone to blame (and to steal from). And they could blame anyone. It could be the blacks in one area, and the Hispanics in another, and whites in another area.

And these attacks may not just fall along racial lines. Non Christians will almost certainly be a target group. And even groups within Christianity could be targets. In some areas whether your registered as a Republican or as a Democrat may mean life of death.

It is like what our European brothers use to do many years ago.

Crops Fail.

Burn out the Jews.

Plague kills 25% of the population.

Burn out the Jews.

Cattle all die.

No Jews left, so burn a bunch of old women who are still practicing the old Heathen ways.

The trick is going to be not to be among the group that catches the blame in your area.

But now I need to add a disclaimer here. In the civil wars in Rwanda and Yugoslavia the attacker were always pretty sure that they would be killing people who were unarmed and unable to put up much of a fight.

However, the above civil war scenario may be less likely here because a large percentage of the US population is pretty well armed. Unlike in Rwanda, an attack on you neighbor is likely to be met with substantial resistance. And the possibility of getting killed yourself takes a lot of the fun out of mindless, bloodthirsty rampages.

Duke of Indiana

[PrairieMule]

Duke,

I can see that scenario, the US breaking up into confederations and commonwealths. I fear UN Peacekeepers coming in from Mexico and Canada(Thank You NAFTA) more than my neighbor. I too have faith in the collective intelligence non-comms and soldiers. I would include Local Law enforcement(Sheriffs, metro police, SWAT) to stand up to the Fed if the constitution was tossed out.

[PenultimateManStanding]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PrairieMule', 'D')uke,

I can see that scenario, the US breaking up into confederations and commonwealths. I fear UN Peacekeepers coming in from Mexico and Canada(Thank You NAFTA) more than my neighbor. I too have faith in the collective intelligence non-comms and soldiers. I would include Local Law enforcement(Sheriffs, metro police, SWAT) to stand up to the Fed if the constitution was tossed out.