[SoothSayer]

My head hurts - I have scanned 100s of messages in this forum and I am still not much closer in coming to any sort of conclusion.

I am capable to writing models of the PO situation - but I doubt I can obtain correct input data ... and anyway SOMEONE must have run valid models already!

Having seen the huge amount of work invested in Civil Defence many years ago I really do KNOW that civil servants WILL also have looked at PO in GREAT detail ... even if they have no personal belief in it.

Many governments have good access to all sorts of technical & commercial data [some "secret"], computers, analysts etc.

So ... what have conclusions have advanced governments such as the USA, UK, Holland, Germany, Russia etc come to?

At least a few of these must have what they believe to be fairly accurate models for PO.

1. If PO is a LONG LONG away I would assume that we would have been told ... unless there is benefit in having a worried population.

2. If PO is a faulty concept then I assume that we would have been told ... ... unless there is benefit in having a worried population.

3. If PO was indeed a valid concept BUT we would have a soft landing due to factors XXXX then I assume that we would have been told ... ... unless there is benefit in having a worried population.

As I have heard effectively NOTHING I must assume that PO is going to hit in the short to mid term ... and that the effects will be non-trivial.

I CANNOT imagine that some governments and/or oil corporations don't have a fairly clear idea of our energy future.

So ... has anyone seen any reasoned PO report or data coming out of any government department?

If so please do let us know!

[TheTurtle]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SoothSayer', 'S')o ... has anyone seen any reasoned PO report or data coming out of any government department?

[rogerhb]

The UK does know that the North Sea is in depletion and UK is now technically an importer.

However things are dangerous when economists are at the helm and they think that money will create things out of thin air.

[TheTurtle]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ElijahJones', 'W')hat is the Bush Administrations policy on peak oil

[LadyRuby]

The Hirsch report is (now anyway) available on a DOE website.

My guess, the DOE didn't want to call attention to it due to it's alarming nature. But Hirsch wasn't going to keep quiet about it. He didn't, and let people know it was a publicly funded study so people have the right to post it, etc. So then the DOE (NETL) made it more available. Note that Hirsch is still employed by the DOE so they apparently don't consider him a renegade flake.

DOE's story is that yes it's an urgent problem but their assumption (at least to the world) is that peak oil is more than 20 years away. Ha.

Hirsch report from DOE website

Even better, I think, is Hirsch's testimony to Congress:

Congressional testimony on peak oil

[rogerhb]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LadyRuby', 'H')e didn't, and let people know it was a publicly funded study so people have the right to post it, etc. So then the DOE (NETL) made it more available. Note that Hirsch is still employed by the DOE so they apparently don't consider him a renegade flake.

[Carlhole]

Does anyone know why the American leadership would push so hard and long about globalized free trade when they probably know that this is a doomed policy due to increasing energy costs?

In an energy scarce world, it makes more sense to have a locally diversified manufacturing and agriculture mix.

Whenever I have asked this before, I've always been informed that the elites simply don't know about peak oil and its ramifications. And it's always seemed ridiculous to me that a bunch of screwballs on a website know so much more about the future oil supply than the oil majors, the government including the intelligence agencies, etc.

[rogerhb]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', 'D')oes anyone know why the American leadership would push so hard and long about globalized free trade when they probably know that this is a doomed policy due to increasing energy costs?

[ReserveGrowthRulz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', '
')And it's always seemed ridiculous to me that a bunch of screwballs on a website know so much more about the future oil supply than the oil majors, the government including the intelligence agencies, etc.

[ubercynicmeister]

What do governments think or know about ANYTHING?

#1. The Freemarket Will Save Us All! ( just like it did in 1929.)

#2. The Freemarket Is Never Wrong;

#3. If the Freemarket is wrong, it will self-correct, thus there need not be any government intervention - see Rule #2.

#4. Success Is Strenuous - Failure happens all by itself so why not go with the flow? An occasional corection is good for the Freemarket, in the Ultra-Darwinian "Survival Of The Fittest" ideal that now dominates thinking amongst the elite...and what's good for the Freemarket is good for everyone, right? If A Rising Tide Raises All Boats then a TSUNAMI must be really good!

#5. By the time the Lemmings find out they've been duped, the average governmental official (elected and otherwise) will be headed out with a superannuation pay-out something equivalent to the US National Debt, so...let someone else worry about it. Let's face it: a complete Lack of Remorse is Number One among the "qualifications" for elected office - right up there along side a Complete Absence of Ethics.

Heck, ethics are old-fashioned "Creationist" style thinking! We shall have Ruthless Exultant Darwinism and we shall have it now!! And the Finest Expression of Ruthless Exultant Darwinism Is The Freemarket, where the weak are seen as unfit for survival and so are mercilessly smashed into oblivion, their hopes shattered, their dreams broken by the devestation of Intrusive Harsh Reality, then their corpses are consumed by the strong; recycled as fuel for further conquests by the Most Ruthless and The Most Cruel, because let's face it: cruelty really is rewarded with power, freedom and oppertunity.

Unlike the average employee, who is never rewarded with power, freedom or oppertunity, directly contradicting what the Feminists promised women if they entered the workforce. But who cares about employees?

(I am really starting to enjoy writing this, far far, FAR more than is good for me...I must stop...)

Remember: in Plato's Republic, the rulers lied continuously to the "underlings" about all situations so as to make things appear more rosey than it really is. This is something Plato recommended. The modern rulers are following Plato's Republic in terms of just about EVERYTHING, especially the bad bits.

Think about it.

[JoeCoal]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SoothSayer', 'I') would assume that we would have been told ...

I assume that we would have been told ...

I assume that we would have been told ...

[Seth]

The common thread here is a "why isn't this more mainstream?" and "doesn't the government know what's going on?". A lot of empirical evidence and social theories suggest that the answers to both questions revolve around a concept known as "demand destruction". We are about to witness the destruction of the middle class throughout the world, due to a mix of declining currency values and increasing energy costs.

The evidence does not suggest that this situation has been orchestrated by the powerful--the federal government is too complex to actually allow a cohesive strategy like that to take place--but there are definitely a few people who comprehend the ramifications of dwindling fossil fuel supplies. These individuals are positioning themselves to materially benefit during any upheaval (subsidies, tax breaks, investment strategies).

I spent some time in the governor's office of a Western state working on energy issues and sustainable development and can say, without hesitation, that I was the only person on staff that knew anything about "peak oil" (this was 2003). Now that it is becoming more mainstream, we will/are see[ing] small attempts to bolster the renewables sector and some limited incentives to biomass derived transportation fuels, but--knowing that there isn't anything that can be done to maintain our current standard of living--these incremental moves will barely offset growth, let alone mitigate the impacts of even a slow depletion scenario.

When someone says "the market will fix this", they either belong to the irrational Church of the Free Market or they are truly "in the know"--the market will fix the situation, in a way--it will price the standard of living that most of us are accustomed to way out of reach, except to the very wealthy. The market will destroy the middle class and most of the employment opportunities that created their economic existence. This is important if we are heading into a time where energy is more expensive--we will need more physical labor to accomplish the tasks at hand. There's a good chance that the US will not have a labor shortage....

[lorax2012]

The common thread here is a "why isn't this more mainstream?" and "doesn't the government know what's going on?".

My 2 cents:
It's not mainstream because it's complicated and there's no happy ending - the average American therefore has no interest. On the other hand it is mainstream in some circles. For example, most of the successful investors I know are aware of PO and factor it into their decisions to varying degrees.

The "government" is basically the collective consciousness of the citizenry. Therefore the American government is just waking up to the problem and taking short-term ineffective "solutions" like invading Iraq. The governments of other societies - like Denmark - planned years ago and now have alternative fuels, mass transit, etc. Sure, there are some individuals in our government who see the full problem, but we are governed by the people not the enlightened few. For example, we should have had a higher gas tax years ago and spent it on preparation - but how far do you think a politician would have gotten suggesting that?

[vision-master]

The Report is Here.

OK, someone beat me to it!