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Open Antarctica to Drilling?

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Re: Open Antarctica to Drilling?

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 04 Mar 2006, 18:56:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')athematical note:

A concrete caisson able to withstand impact by 1,000,000 tonnes of ice -

is designed to withstand an iceberg just 20ms x 224ms x 224ms,

or a 100m cube.


Practical note....I suspect the engineers that designed the multi-billion dollar hibernia platform actually understand what it will or will not do a wee bit better than you do, as well as what it needs to do. If not perhaps Petro-Canada would pay highly for your services.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Hibernia platform is uniquely designed to resist the impact of sea ice and icebergs. It can withstand the impact of a one-million tonne iceberg with no damage. It can withstand contact with a six million tonne iceberg, estimated to be the largest that can drift into that water depth and only expected once in 10,000 years, with repairable damage


Hibernia is located in water depths of around 100 m...quite shallow. It really depends on where any development would occur offshore Antarctica. In shallower water icebergs would likely be more frequent, especially where there is current calving from the continental ice sheet, where it is deeper they would be less frequent but could be larger (accomodate greater draft) in this case the FPSO would be the answer. Given the technology there is nothing to say that larger cassons could not be built. My point was this is a problem that is solveable...others are currently not.
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Re: Open Antarctica to Drilling?

Unread postby ubercynicmeister » Sat 04 Mar 2006, 21:19:16

The mere fact we're even talking about this is evidence of the desperate times we're in.
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Re: Open Antarctica to Drilling?

Unread postby GoIllini » Sun 05 Mar 2006, 20:36:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ubercynicmeister', 'T')he mere fact we're even talking about this is evidence of the desperate times we're in.


More likely, it's evidence of how desperate we think Peak Oil will get.

Most of us will agree that if there's a solution to peak oil, it's going to be a very complicated, incremental one that'll involve a myriad of energy technologies. Oil production in Antarctica to buy some time and extend the peak 1-2 years might be one of them. And considering we've been willing to drill for oil in Alaska for 30 years, it really isn't that unprecedented at all.
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Re: Open Antarctica to Drilling?

Unread postby 0mar » Sun 05 Mar 2006, 21:22:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ab0di', 'T')he continental shelf of Antarctica is considered to hold the region's greatest potential for oil exploration projects, and although estimates vary as to the abundance of oil in Antarctica, the Weddell and Ross Sea areas alone are expected to possess 50 billion barrels of oil - an amount roughly equivalent to that of Alaska's estimated reserves.[/b] However, Antarctica's extreme conditions make oil field accessibility in many areas economically problematic.


We use 30 billion barrels per year with a 40% increase in use projected by 2019 to 42 billion barrels/yr.

By the time it was developed, it would only supply the world's oil needs for a little over one year.


To be fair, the majority of the world's oil comes from fields that, if taken as a measure of yearly consumption, would only entail 2-3 years at the most. The real measure of a field is it's flowrate.
Joseph Stalin
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Re: Open Antarctica to Drilling?

Unread postby ubercynicmeister » Mon 06 Mar 2006, 18:54:15

Hi GoIllini

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GoIllini', '
')Most of us will agree that if there's a solution to peak oil, it's going to be a very complicated, incremental one that'll involve a myriad of energy technologies. Oil production in Antarctica to buy some time and extend the peak 1-2 years might be one of them.


Buy is the operative word, and at great expense, too...I wonder how high Oil would have to go before Antarctica would be considered "cost effective"?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ') And considering we've been willing to drill for oil in Alaska for 30 years, it really isn't that unprecedented at all.


It is unprecedented if you think about the fact that, long before Alaska was known to have Oil (or even long before Oil was cared about), it had gold, and that caused a gold rush (the Yukon?) so it is somewhat more "developed" then compared to what Antacrtica is now. It also has the advantage of being "attached" to something that has an awful lot of development: North America. So making bits for your pipeline & getting personell to assemble it and maintain it isn't too much of a problem.

Now, detach the Oil-bearing regions of Alaska and float 'em off to the opposite end of the earth, with an intervening Ocean (or two) and add the worst weather on the planet; throw in the biggest icebergs and the largest waves (some insane surfie-types have been talking about surfing them) with the coldest waters and the least development...now are you starting to see that it's very much UNprecedented?

Winter in Antarctica means no ships can approach the shore-line, because of the Winter Storms. This means no oil tankers.

If one tries to use a pipe-line, then we've seen how the pipelines in the much-less stormy Gulf Of Mexico got turned into bowls of steel spaghetti when those two hurricanes hit. Now imagine those two hurricanes and have them pounding your Oil Pipeline every day at full strength for weeks.

What do you think it's gunna do to your pipeline?

THAT is certainly UNprecedented.
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Re: Open Antarctica to Drilling?

Unread postby GoIllini » Tue 07 Mar 2006, 01:10:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GoIllini', '
')Buy is the operative word, and at great expense, too...I wonder how high Oil would have to go before Antarctica would be considered "cost effective"?.

I really don't see how Antarctica is that much more inhospitable than the North Sea or Alaska. Regardless of whether it's 50 below or 100 below, spend 10 minutes outside without a very warm jacket and you're frozen.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ') And considering we've been willing to drill for oil in Alaska for 30 years, it really isn't that unprecedented at all.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t is unprecedented if you think about the fact that, long before Alaska was known to have Oil (or even long before Oil was cared about), it had gold, and that caused a gold rush (the Yukon?) so it is somewhat more "developed" then compared to what Antacrtica is now. It also has the advantage of being "attached" to something that has an awful lot of development: North America. So making bits for your pipeline & getting personell to assemble it and maintain it isn't too much of a problem.

We have research bases *somewhere* in Antarctica; there were small gold mining towns *somewhere* in Alaska. Meanwhile, the North Slope was pretty much in the middle of nowhere; sure, there were a few Inuits, but that's about it. The pipeline had to be pretty much built from scratch.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ow, detach the Oil-bearing regions of Alaska and float 'em off to the opposite end of the earth, with an intervening Ocean (or two) and add the worst weather on the planet; throw in the biggest icebergs and the largest waves (some insane surfie-types have been talking about surfing them) with the coldest waters and the least development...now are you starting to see that it's very much UNprecedented?

Again. The North Slope is somewhere around 2000 miles from what most people outside of Alaska would call civilization. Alaska has icebergs. I think the North Sea does, too, though I'm not certain.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')inter in Antarctica means no ships can approach the shore-line, because of the Winter Storms. This means no oil tankers.

If one tries to use a pipe-line, then we've seen how the pipelines in the much-less stormy Gulf Of Mexico got turned into bowls of steel spaghetti when those two hurricanes hit. Now imagine those two hurricanes and have them pounding your Oil Pipeline every day at full strength for weeks.

What do you think it's gunna do to your pipeline?

THAT is certainly UNprecedented.
The reason the pipelines in the Gulf of Mexico encountered issues was that they weren't engineered for a massive hurricane-inspired flood. First off, IIRC, pipelines can be designed to run on top of and move with glaciers. Second off, IIRC, pipelines in Alaska survive conditions not much different from Antarctica in terms of winds on a regular basis.

Alaska deals with icebergs on a regular basis; so do platforms in Canada; I think the North Sea has issues, too- though a Scandinavian might come in here and correct me.
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Re: Open Antarctica to Drilling?

Unread postby eric_b » Wed 08 Mar 2006, 03:23:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GoIllini', '
')I really don't see how Antarctica is that much more inhospitable than the North Sea or Alaska. Regardless of whether it's 50 below or 100 below, spend 10 minutes outside without a very warm jacket and you're frozen.



Antarctica has a much more extreme climate than the Arctic.

If you compare the two poles of the earth it becomes obvious
why; they are opposites geographically. In the northern
hemisphere (NH) the polar region is ocean, from about 70
degrees on up. Even though it's frozen most of the time, the
emissivity of ice is such that it keeps the pole warmer than it
would be if it were land. Then from around 70 degrees south
at least 2/3's of the NH is continental.

Now compare this to the southern hemisphere (SH) where the
pole out to 65-70 degrees is land. This is surrounded by
uninterrupted ocean. The south pole is *much* colder than
the north pole on average. The pole has an average temperature
of -50C, and in the winter temps well below -100C are common.
The ocean surrounding Antarctica is dramatically warmer than
the continent itself. What this means is the temperature
gradient which fuels storms is much stronger in Antarctica
than it is in the arctic. So, especially in the Winter, there's
the creation of a 'vortex' around the continent and a region
of nearly continuous storms and very strong winds. Since
there's no land in this storm zone, there's nothing to slow
the winds down (while the interior of the continent is often
calm).

Winds literally scream around the continent, with such
fury that people in boats can suffer psychological problems
from the incessant din. The area is notorious. During the
couple months of antipodal summer it's just possible to
approach the shore by boat, assuming the weather and ice
cooperate. In the Winter it's not possible by boat, only
by air at best.

The sea ice varies hugely throughout the year. See the two
maps below, one taken in late february (near minimum ice extent)
and the other in early september (near max) to get an
idea.

(feb 2006)
Image

(sep 2000)
Image

I can't see much drilling taking place on the interior of
the continent. I don't see how they could get through klicks
of moving ice just to reach rock. Parts of the Antarctic
peninsula may be accessible. As far as offhore drilling... dunno.
I'm sure it's possible, but at what cost?

Personally I hope it never happens. I've read many accounts
of the ethereal beauty of the place, and hope it remains relatively
untouched by human hands. There are many descriptions of the
incredible light, the clarity of the atmosphere.. that I hope it
remains undeveloped.

For example, read this photographers account (Michael Reichmann)
of his Dec. 2005 trip to Antarctica. With some nice pictures:

http://www.luminous-landscape.com/locat ... tica.shtml

(check out these pictures too!)
http://www.cybamuse.com/antarctica/dream.htm

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')I have shot in the Canadian Arctic, Iceland, the Sierra, and the Rockies in winter, but these were totally dissimilar experiences to Antarctica. There is a quality to the air and the light that makes Antarctica like no other place on earth. No one is unaffected by the difference. It is that profound.


I agree with the opinion that the fact we are even considering
looking for oil in antarctica shows how desperate we are.

Info on antarctic climate:
http://www.antarcticconnection.com/anta ... wind.shtml
Last edited by eric_b on Thu 09 Mar 2006, 04:39:42, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Open Antarctica to Drilling?

Unread postby SHiFTY » Wed 08 Mar 2006, 18:11:22

Talking of the deep south: there are many areas in offshore New Zealand which could be well worth drilling- very little of NZ's vast continental shelf has been explored. Check out this map:

http://www.niwascience.co.nz/pubs/wa/10 ... _large.jpg

The red areas are the relatively shallow water where the continental shelf extends out.
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Re: Open Antarctica to Drilling?

Unread postby smallpoxgirl » Wed 08 Mar 2006, 21:32:09

Any idea how far it is from that one spur up to Tierra del Fuego? Also any idea which part of Antarctica has the oil? Wonder if they would end up running a pipeline up there?
"We were standing on the edges
Of a thousand burning bridges
Sifting through the ashes every day
What we thought would never end
Now is nothing more than a memory
The way things were before
I lost my way" - OCMS
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Re: Open Antarctica to Drilling?

Unread postby eric_b » Thu 09 Mar 2006, 01:54:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smallpoxgirl', 'A')ny idea how far it is from that one spur up to Tierra del Fuego? Also any idea which part of Antarctica has the oil? Wonder if they would end up running a pipeline up there?


If by 'spur' you mean the Antarctic peninsula, it's about 600 miles from
the southern tip of south america (ushuaia) to the tip of the peninsula
(Anvers island). This is the drake passage and is very stormy.

I don't know if there's any known oil fields in Antarctica... though they
know where some coal deposits are. And minerals too.

I found this link while googling:

http://www.coolantarctica.com/Antarctic ... ng_oil.htm

It shows areas where some prospecting has been done apparently.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Rocks in Antarctica have been suggested to contain oil or gas. Even if this was the case - no drilling has taken place to find any - it is highly unlikely that they could ever be exploited commercially.

Reliable authorities have estimated that it would cost between US$65 and US$80 per barrel (and that was several years ago) to get oil from Antarctica. Current prices (June 2003) are between $25 and $30, less than a half of the cost of getting it from Antarctica.


-and-

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')There are over 30 years worth of reserves of oil left, possibly even up to 100 years worth, so there is no urgency to get Antarctica's oil.


Ha ha hahahahha
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