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Former SecDef James Schlesinger adress Senate on Peak Oil!

A forum for discussion of regional topics including oil depletion but also government, society, and the future.

Re: James Schlesinger on peak oil

Unread postby Starvid » Wed 01 Mar 2006, 10:01:55

And this is where you go wrong.

Your calculations show that the energy losses are just as big in an electric car as in a ICE car, when they are not. The ICE car only turn 20 % of the energy in the fuel into power for transmission, AC etc. An electric car turns 75 % of the energy charged into the battery into power for transmission, AC etc.

This means that an electric car will use only 27 % (0,2/0,75) as much energy as a ICE car at the point of use. In reality the numbers will be a lot more even, as it takes about three times as much primary energy to make electricity in a steam plant. Hence an electric car will use 27 %*3= 81 % of the energy an ICE car uses do to the same work.


Let me do an example, without nuclear power to make it really simple.

Let's say you need 100 units of energy to power your ICE cars transmission. The efficiency of the ICE is 20 % and hence you need 500 units of oil (gasoline really, but let's ignore that for now) to to get your 100 units of energy to move your car. 400 units of energy are lost in the process, becoming heat radiating from the engine and doing no good.

The relevant equation is 100=X*0,20, where X is the amount of energy required to get the 100 units output and 0,20 being the efficiency of the car.

100=X*0,20

100/0,20=X*0,20/0,20

100/0,20=X

X=500



Ok, then we have the electric car. It also needs 100 units of energy to be propelled. The efficiency of the electric motor is about 90 % and the efficiency of the battery is about 80 %. Together they have an efficiency of roughly 75 % (0,9*0,8=0,72).

This means that to get 100 units of energy of output you need more than 100 units of input, just like in the ICE case. The relevant equation is:

100=X*0,75

100/0,75=X*0,75/0,75

100/0,75=X

X=133

Here we see the incredible efficiency of the electric motor and the battery compared to the wastefulness of the ICE. But one mustn't look at the electric car in an isolated way but as a part of a system. The power must be made somewhere, and there will be losses in that process.

Ok, to propel the car with 100 units of energy we need 133 units of electricity, but how much primary energy do we need to make the electricity? To make this really simple, let's say we use an oil plant to make the power. The plant has an efficiency of 33 %, that is, only 33 % of the energy content of the oil is turned into electricity while the remaining 67 % are turned into useless heat emitted to the atmosphere.

The relevant equation is:

133=X*0,33

133/0,33=X*0,33/0,33

133/0,33=X

X=404

Where 133 is the amount of electricity needed, 0,33 is the efficency of the power plant and X is the amount primary energy (oil in this case) needed to make the required power.

We can see that the electric car needs 404 units of energy (oil in this case) compared to the 500 units of primary energy (in the form of oil) required by the ICE car.

This means that the electric car only need roughly 80 % of the primary energy of the ICE car (404/500=(81 %)

So what would happen if we stopped using oil for combustion in ICE's and instead used oil for combustion in oil power plants to propel electric cars?
The answer is that the amount of oil needed to propel our cars would fall about 20 % (100 %-81 %= 19 %).

If we look at the graph we see that the amount of petoleum and NGPL today used in transportation is 26,5 quads. 80 % of this is 21,4 quads (26,5*0,80=21,4). This is the amount of primary energy needed to propel the fleet of electric cars. In the example above we used oil power plants to create the power needed, and this consumed 21,4 quads of oil. But obviuosly other sources of electric power could also be used: coal, nuclear, natural gas, biofuels, you name it (if you use anything other than steam plants the calculation will change somewhat).

Today the electric power sector consume 38,2 quads of primary energy to make electricity, as you can see in the graph. Switching to an electric car fleet would increase this number with 21,4 quads to 59,6 quads (38,2+21,4=59,6), or with 56 % ((38,2+21,4)/38,2=+56 %).


Now that was a relly, really pedagogic explanation, wasn't it? :)
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Re: James Schlesinger on peak oil

Unread postby dub_scratch » Wed 01 Mar 2006, 12:09:27

I think Starvid is right on this one. It is an error to use the efficiency of the ICE for the calculation of EV total thermodynamic efficiency.

The proper equation is (11.9/38.2) * (Auto kinetic energy per Electrical Charge energy unit)= EV Thermodynamic Efficiency. I don't know what that second factor is. Starvid, you said it is 75% but can you provide a source?
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Re: James Schlesinger on peak oil

Unread postby Starvid » Wed 01 Mar 2006, 13:47:31

Not the most reliable source in the world, but hopefully adequate:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Wikipedia', 'E')lectric motors often achieve 90% conversion efficiency over the full range of speeds and power output and can be precisely controlled

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_vehicle


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Wikipedia', 'B')rushless motors are typically 85-90% efficient whereas DC motors with brushgear are typically 10% less efficient.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_motor


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')atteries are not 100% efficient - some energy is lost as heat and chemical reactions when charging and discharging.

[...]

Typical efficiency in a lead-acid battery is 85-95%, in alkaline and NiCad battery it is about 65%.

http://www.windsun.com/Batteries/Battery_FAQ.htm


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t is generally understood that [lead acid, my remark] battery charge efficiency is high (above 95%) at low states of charge and
that this efficiency drops off near full charge.

http://www.sandia.gov/pv/docs/PDF/batpapsteve.pdf

The resulting EV efficiency should be about 75 %. I have not found any numbers on the efficiency on NiMH or Li-ion batteries, nor on the new nanobatteries that Toshiba and others are launching. To bad, since they are the ones that will power any eventual fleet of electric cars.
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Re: James Schlesinger on peak oil

Unread postby jimk » Wed 01 Mar 2006, 14:08:33

I suspect that the energy density of gasoline is higher than that of most any battery. On the other hand, a gas engine is probably heavier than an equivalent horsepower electric motor. So I expect that an electric car with a long enough travelling range will weigh more than the corresponding ICE car. A heavier car is less efficient at converting mechanical power to miles travelled. This is probably a small factor for most practical situations, but it seems like another term in the comparison.
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Re: James Schlesinger on peak oil

Unread postby dub_scratch » Wed 01 Mar 2006, 14:52:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', '
')The resulting EV efficiency should be about 75 %. I have not found any numbers on the efficiency on NiMH or Li-ion batteries, nor on the new nanobatteries that Toshiba and others are launching. To bad, since they are the ones that will power any eventual fleet of electric cars.


I think 75% seams reasonable. The only factor that you forgot is with regard to auto accessories such as lights, radio and heater/AC. My guess would be an additional drop of 5%. This would bring the thermodynamic efficiency of the EV at par with the ICE car.

If the coming decline in oil & methane availability does result in shortfalls of net energy (which is the default scenario where alternatives are not ramped up in time), then it does not seam compelling to me to take on an energy intensive task of making the switch to EVs. EVs are not more efficient than the cars on the roads today and if the problem is declining net energy, it just does not make sense to make the switch. With the economic hardships that are likely, a retool of the National Traffic Jam is akin to rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic-- not exactly the smoothest of moves.
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Re: James Schlesinger on peak oil

Unread postby Novus » Wed 01 Mar 2006, 20:28:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dub_scratch', 'I') think Starvid is right on this one. It is an error to use the efficiency of the ICE for the calculation of EV total thermodynamic efficiency.

The proper equation is (11.9/38.2) * (Auto kinetic energy per Electrical Charge energy unit)= EV Thermodynamic Efficiency. I don't know what that second factor is. Starvid, you said it is 75% but can you provide a source?


Even if you use his number his math was still wrong.

This is the "proper" equation using Starvid's claim of (5.3/7.06) %75 EV efficency.

Image

Do the Math, it takes 4.3 units of input get put 1 unit of usefull transporation. Since we need 5.3 quads to fill our transporation needs we will need a total of new 22.8 quads of new input on top of what we already produce for electricity.

Image

We are talking under absolute ideal contitions with no growth and all the other overly conservative assumptions running flawlessly an absolute minimum of a 280% increase over present levels.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') think 75% seams reasonable. The only factor that you forgot is with regard to auto accessories such as lights, radio and heater/AC. My guess would be an additional drop of 5%.


We are also forgetting air resistance which is one of the big reasons why cars reguardless of how they are powered are so inefficient.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')his would bring the thermodynamic efficiency of the EV at par with the ICE car.


What is the final verdict? How many more nukes do we need to even re-arange the deck chairs on the Titanic? Is it 50% more as Starvid suggests or will it be closer to %1000 that I have calculated?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', 'T')oday the electric power sector consume 38,2 quads of primary energy to make electricity, as you can see in the graph. Switching to an electric car fleet would increase this number with 21,4 quads to 59,6 quads (38,2+21,4=59,6), or with 56 % ((38,2+21,4)/38,2=+56 %).


What is with you and your over-unity equations. The real world does not work that way. When you take the total 38.2 quad energy system and increase it 56% you also increase the sum of all its parts. For this to work you have to in addition to increasing nuclear by 56% also must increase: Hydro by 56%, Natural Gas by 56%, Coal by 56%, and ironically increase petroleum by 56%. Where else is the other 80% increase in power going to come from? Faeries?

My God if people actually listened to this crap and thought they could solve all their problems by increasing nuclear power alone by 56%. They would put your head on a pike when it didn't work.
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Re: James Schlesinger on peak oil

Unread postby Starvid » Wed 01 Mar 2006, 21:04:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Novus', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dub_scratch', 'I') think Starvid is right on this one. It is an error to use the efficiency of the ICE for the calculation of EV total thermodynamic efficiency.

The proper equation is (11.9/38.2) * (Auto kinetic energy per Electrical Charge energy unit)= EV Thermodynamic Efficiency. I don't know what that second factor is. Starvid, you said it is 75% but can you provide a source?


Even if you use his number his math was still wrong.

This is the "proper" equation using Starvid's claim of (5.3/7.06) %75 EV efficency.

Image

Do the Math, it takes 4.3 units of input get put 1 unit of usefull transporation. Since we need 5.3 quads to fill our transporation needs we will need a total of new 22.8 quads of new input on top of what we already produce for electricity.

Image

We are talking under absolute ideal contitions with no growth and all the other overly conservative assumptions running flawlessly an absolute minimum of a 280% increase over present levels.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') think 75% seams reasonable. The only factor that you forgot is with regard to auto accessories such as lights, radio and heater/AC. My guess would be an additional drop of 5%.


We are also forgetting air resistance which is one of the big reasons why cars reguardless of how they are powered are so inefficient.


Air resistance or growth are not in any way included in the 5,3 quads for useful energy. The only thing there is the energy required to run the engine. If you change AC or air resistance it will change the amount of useful energy needed (those 5,3 quads).

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Novus', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')his would bring the thermodynamic efficiency of the EV at par with the ICE car.


What is the final verdict? How many more nukes do we need to even re-arange the deck chairs on the Titanic? Is it 50% more as Starvid suggests or will it be closer to %1000 that I have calculated?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', 'T')oday the electric power sector consume 38,2 quads of primary energy to make electricity, as you can see in the graph. Switching to an electric car fleet would increase this number with 21,4 quads to 59,6 quads (38,2+21,4=59,6), or with 56 % ((38,2+21,4)/38,2=+56 %).

What is with you and your over-unity equations. The real world does not work that way. When you take the total 38.2 quad energy system and increase it 56% you also increase the sum of all its parts. For this to work you have to in addition to increasing nuclear by 56% also must increase: Hydro by 56%, Natural Gas by 56%, Coal by 56%, and ironically increase petroleum by 56%. Where else is the other 80% increase in power going to come from? Faeries?

My God if people actually listened to this crap and thought they could solve all their problems by increasing nuclear power alone by 56%. They would put your head on a pike when it didn't work.
I have never claimed a 56 % increase in nuclear generating capacity would be enough to power the entire fleet of electric cars. You just made that up.

A 56 % increase of the electrical generation capacity would of course mean 56 % more natural gas and 56 % more coal and 56 % more nuclear and 56 % more of everything used to make power.

How big would the increase in nuclear power be if no other plants (no coal, wind, biofuels, natural gas etc) were built, if nuclear power is used to supply all the new power?

Present power consumption is 38,2 quads. The total new required power would be 59,5 quads (38,2*1,56=59,5). The increase would be 21,3 quads. Hence we would need 21,3 quads of new nuclear energy. Today the US gets 8,1 quads from about 100 reactors. Each reactor on average generate 0,081 quads (8,1/100=0,081).

If the new reactors are the same average size as the reactors of today 263 (21,3/0,081=263) new reactors will be needed. These numbers are obviously rough but 250 sounds like a round number.

So the conclusion is: if all the US cars and trucks are run on electricity and new nuclear reactors are exclusively built, this new demand will require roughly 250 new reactors. These reactors will probably cost about $2 billion each, hence the whole bunch will cost half a trillion.

The annual US GDP is $10 trillion.
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Re: James Schlesinger on peak oil

Unread postby KennyBeeAK » Thu 02 Mar 2006, 03:20:45

Schlesinger cited a Chinese quasi-governmental source which apparently estimated PO will be +/- 2012. A couple of days ago a I came across a citation of a French government estimate of PO in 2013. ASRO estimates 2010.
I'll grant Starvid's calculations. But we cannot build 250 nuclear power plants within the next seven years. I doubt we can even build one by then. Nor can we we build 220 million EVs in that time to replace the existing petroleum-powered fleet.
The fact is, when PO hits, most Americans will still be dependent on petroleum-powered cars. Most of them will no longer be able to afford the fuel. Nor will they be able to afford the vastly more expensive food and other manufactured goods that long-haul truckers can no longer bring them, as the truckers will no longer be able to afford the diesel fuel for their rigs. And as the airlines all go bankrupt, we won't be able to flee to Sweden, either.
So as we starve, we'll blame the politicians, the Arabs, Hugo Chavez, Big Oil, and any other handy scapegoats, anyone but ourselves. It's already too late to do anything to prevent it.
Well, maybe four or seven years will be enough time for some of us to adapt or escape. As for myself and my family, we bought our house, small by modern American standards, 1.5 miles (2km) from the main regional seaport and railroad terminal, and we are getting seriously into gardening.
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Re: James Schlesinger on peak oil

Unread postby Kickinthegob » Thu 02 Mar 2006, 05:10:05

I read this thread through and even did some of the math but when it comes right down to it...
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KennyBeeAK', 'B')ut we cannot build 250 nuclear power plants within the next seven years. I doubt we can even build one by then. Nor can we we build 220 million EVs in that time to replace the existing petroleum-powered fleet

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', 'I')n the city and country where I live there are no environmental problems, except those created by motor vehicles propelled by the combustion of fossil fuels

You live in a very fine INDUSTRIALIZED country but you claim there are no evironmental problems?
Do you guys want to manufacture all the batteries, plastics, rubber and electronics to build the EV utopia or do you want the Chinese to that part for you?
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Re: James Schlesinger on peak oil

Unread postby Starvid » Thu 02 Mar 2006, 10:58:54

Obviuosly we would like to keep the manufacturing jobs at home (otherwise we will go from an industrial society to a service society), but globalization is moving factories to China as we speak. Hopefully PO will reverse that.

And yes, we can make plastics, batteries, nuclear fuel, cars and fertilizers, everything, in a sustainable way.

The environmental problems we have today are either from cars (ground ozone, particulates, GW etc) or from foreign pollution coming here (acid rain from Germany and Britain, eutrophication of the Baltic Sea from Russia, Poland and the Baltic states etc).

It is possible to manufacture things in an environmentall beningn way. It only requires effort and ingenuity. Money, technology and will. Few countries have all these three requisities (the US have money and technology but seem rather lacking in the will department for example). ;)
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Re: James Schlesinger on peak oil

Unread postby Revi » Thu 02 Mar 2006, 11:17:12

I agree with Starvid, We just lack the will to do something about this crisis. Not all of us. Just the people that run this country.
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Re: James Schlesinger on peak oil

Unread postby Starvid » Thu 02 Mar 2006, 11:52:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KennyBeeAK', 'S')chlesinger cited a Chinese quasi-governmental source which apparently estimated PO will be +/- 2012. A couple of days ago a I came across a citation of a French government estimate of PO in 2013. ASRO estimates 2010.
I'll grant Starvid's calculations. But we cannot build 250 nuclear power plants within the next seven years. I doubt we can even build one by then. Nor can we we build 220 million EVs in that time to replace the existing petroleum-powered fleet.

Building the reactors will not present any major problems that can not be solved with apropriate investments. During the last oil crisis France built 1000 MW (which is the average US size reactor) nuclear capacity per 1 million citizens. It took 20 years. Sweden did it in 15 years. If we hadn't had a massive political fight over nuclear power we could have done it in 10 years.

The reason we and the French could do it so fast were that both us and them had had nuclear research going since 1945. We had the skilled engineers and workers. Obviously the US also has this today, since they have more than 100 reactors running.

Most are 50+ years old (and the very same people who built all the stuff the last time), but they'll have to do the patriotic thing and work to 75 or until all the new engineers are examined from the universities. ;)

Building the 200 million electric cars is a vastly greater challenge than building the few hundred power plants. There are no mass produced EV's on the streets today. None are manufactured and none are sold.

EV's, powered by nuclear power, or by anything else, is not a viable short term mitigation to peak oil. This also why nuclear power (or solar, wind or whatever) should not be seen as some immediate mitigation to peak oil.

As you say, people will be driving fossil cars when peak oil hits.

Only enlightened people (like me ;) ) will be driving their electric scooters.
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Re: James Schlesinger on peak oil

Unread postby dub_scratch » Thu 02 Mar 2006, 12:05:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', '
')So the conclusion is: if all the US cars and trucks are run on electricity and new nuclear reactors are exclusively built, this new demand will require roughly 250 new reactors. These reactors will probably cost about $2 billion each, hence the whole bunch will cost half a trillion.

The annual US GDP is $10 trillion.


On top of that we have the costs of 220 million EVs of an approximate price tag of 5 trillion. And then we have billions of miles of road infrastructure that is very old and has to be replaced, say another 2 trillion.

The question is do we have the RETARDED will to do this?

If we attempt to build your nuke powered National Traffic Jam utopia, this country will be easily bankrupted and our standard of living will go down to the level of Bangladesh.
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Re: James Schlesinger on peak oil

Unread postby dub_scratch » Thu 02 Mar 2006, 12:10:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'I') agree with Starvid, We just lack the will to do something about this crisis. Not all of us. Just the people that run this country.


You agree with Starvid that we lack the retarded will to build something so stupid as the electrified National Traffic Jam?
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Re: James Schlesinger on peak oil

Unread postby KennyBeeAK » Thu 02 Mar 2006, 16:03:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', '
')Building the reactors will not present any major problems that can not be solved with apropriate investments. During the last oil crisis France built 1000 MW (which is the average US size reactor) nuclear capacity per 1 million citizens. It took 20 years. Sweden did it in 15 years. If we hadn't had a massive political fight over nuclear power we could have done it in 10 years.


My point is that we do not have 10 or 15 or 20 years. We have four or seven years.
It happens that here in Alaska we have a small nuclear generating plant under active consideration:
http://www.platts.com/Nuclear/highlight ... 020806.xml
First proposal was in 2003. IF it goes ahead, they hope for completion in 2014. Eleven years. That's about as good as it gets.
Until PO begins to actually cause severe pain, "massive political fights" are unavoidable reality. Major reasons:
1. Three Mile Island
2. NIMBYS
3. Resistance to Yucca Mountain
When PO brings collapse to the point of imminence, then all these problems will be immediately overcome. Not only that, but ANWR and Florida's outer continental shelf will promptly be drilled for oil. But no such things will happen on any major scale until panic hits the public at large.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', '
')EV's, powered by nuclear power, or by anything else, is not a viable short term mitigation to peak oil. This also why nuclear power (or solar, wind or whatever) should not be seen as some immediate mitigation to peak oil.
As you say, people will be driving fossil cars when peak oil hits.
Only enlightened people (like me ;) ) will be driving their electric scooters.


Then we agree that there is no practicable short-term solution.

We'll be riding our bicycles and (hopefully) city buses. The Alaska Railroad has plans to start running commuter trains between here and the northern suburbs when they conclude it's economically viable; that is, when gasoline becomes too expensive for people to drive.
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Re: James Schlesinger on peak oil

Unread postby Mesuge » Thu 02 Mar 2006, 20:09:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Novus', '
')The only modern mass produced electric car, the EV1 often only got half the range claimed on the sticker because the American driver pushes the car too hard (driving faster than 40mph) or by running the air conditioner and blasting the radio. It is also rumored that the expanding waistline of the drivers and passengers also contributed to the EV1's decreased range.



$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')econd you create more waste by taking that electricty and using it in heavy innefficent eletric cars.


Where did you get this kind of mis/dis/information? Please don't spread it any further. There were some battery issues in the first batch of EV1 in the mid 90s certainly not in the refined product of 2000-2003 from which police had to separate their owners!

Heavy & inefficient EV? Are you working for some oily lobby or what? Do the numbers on efficiency ICE-EV first please..

Only mass produced EV? French EVs are going 150.000km on the same battery pack and still strong, my buddy is parking it without garage in horrible weather conditions and he is usually the only one to start up the car or at least be fastest in the morning in the hood when the artic fan comes to us in winter..

And please don't try the cornocupian label sticker - I'm for banning individual transportion as much as possible and switching to rail, bicycle/el. assisted within cities..
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Re: James Schlesinger on peak oil

Unread postby Mesuge » Thu 02 Mar 2006, 20:51:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', '
')As you say, people will be driving fossil cars when peak oil hits.

Only enlightened people (like me ;) ) will be driving their electric scooters.


The best punch is that these low energy impact mobility gadgets like pedelecs (EV bicycles) or Z20 and alike can be charged by your own small and cheap wind/solar/smart minihydro electricity generating appliance..

Electric dreams are morphing into reality as never before..
:-D
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Re: James Schlesinger on peak oil

Unread postby Mesuge » Thu 02 Mar 2006, 21:05:33

What's hot in town? The "zero" maintanance Sterling engine strikes back!
Image
http://www.sunmachine.com/

In terms of electro scooter I think that this one E-max is perhaps better
engineered although manuf. in China as well - perhaps they stop
exporting them one day and keep them all for themselfs ..lol..

Image
http://www.e-max-scooter.com/index.php?spr=en
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Re: James Schlesinger on peak oil

Unread postby GoIllini » Sun 05 Mar 2006, 20:18:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dub_scratch', '
')On top of that we have the costs of 220 million EVs of an approximate price tag of 5 trillion. And then we have billions of miles of road infrastructure that is very old and has to be replaced, say another 2 trillion.

When peak oil hits, we won't have to go from 22 mbpd consumption to 0 overnight. In fact, even if cars have a 10 or even 18 year life cycle, we can simply replace them as they go off the road to offset even a 5% decline. Assuming only a 2% decline, we can replace them with the market doing 80-90% of the work.

Given that an electric car might cost $5K on top of an ICE, and we need to replace 220 million cars, that's only $1.1 Trillion, first off.

Second off, that figure can probably be amortized over 20 years- along with the $0.5 Trillion to build new nukes (though there is a 5-8 year lead time on nuke construction, though there are already 16 new nukes in the pipeline).

Additionally, the U.S. uses 22 mbpd of oil, or ~8 billion barrels per year. At $60/barrel, switching to nukes/ev would pay for itself in 3.5 years. I'd also be pessimistic and assume it would cost another $0.5 Trillion to implement reprocessing (which would also resolve any issues with storing the waste more than 500 years), so we'll call it 4.5 years to 5 years.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he question is do we have the RETARDED will to do this?

$5K extra for an electric option on my next car doesn't seem retarded at all. If anything, it would be a very wise hedge against high gasoline prices.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f we attempt to build your nuke powered National Traffic Jam utopia, this country will be easily bankrupted and our standard of living will go down to the level of Bangladesh.

Frankly, I think the market's smarter than all of us when it comes to figuring out ways to increase or maintain standards of living. I think an electric car in every home isn't that crazy. And with new computer technology, it wouldn't be that tough to have computers run the most traffic-prone areas of our highways. Using GPS, (relatively modest overhead), and a $500 computer chip in each car to control it, we could probably obtain twice our ordinary max traffic flow on any area of the highway. The 100 ms lag between the server bank, satellite, and cars would still be pretty minimal compared to human response times.
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Re: James Schlesinger on peak oil

Unread postby KennyBeeAK » Thu 16 Mar 2006, 13:21:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dub_scratch', '
')When peak oil hits, we won't have to go from 22 mbpd consumption to 0 overnight. In fact, even if cars have a 10 or even 18 year life cycle, we can simply replace them as they go off the road to offset even a 5% decline. Assuming only a 2% decline, we can replace them with the market doing 80-90% of the work.


I believe it is generally understood we won't have to go to 0 mbpd consumption overnight. That's not the issue. Neither is the issue primarily the 2% or 5% projected annual decline in oil production. The issue is declining oil production COMBINED with increasing world demand, especially from newly industrializing nations such as China and India. Further combine that with my previous statement that the political consensus needed to deal with this will not happen until peak oil really begins to hurt. Denial.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dub_scratch', '
')... I think an electric car in every home isn't that crazy. And with new computer technology, it wouldn't be that tough to have computers run the most traffic-prone areas of our highways. Using GPS, (relatively modest overhead), and a $500 computer chip in each car to control it, we could probably obtain twice our ordinary max traffic flow on any area of the highway...


We won't get there within the next four to seven years; which, as I explained above, may well be all the time we have before the world "liquid fuels crisis" really sets in. Time is of the essence.
"Great minds discuss ideas. Average minds discuss events. Small minds discuss people." ... Eleanor Roosevelt
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