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The Surveys regarding Peak Oil Thread (merged)

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Do you predict a soft or hard landing and do you live in USA or elsewhere ?

Poll ended at Sat 20 Nov 2004, 05:09:16

Hard Landing I am from USA
19
No votes
Hard Landing I am NOT from USA
7
No votes
Soft Landing I am from USA
6
No votes
Soft Landing I am NOT from USA
15
No votes
 
Total votes : 47

The Surveys regarding Peak Oil Thread (merged)

Unread postby chris-h » Thu 21 Oct 2004, 05:09:16

I would like to see if US people predict a hard landing as a result of more agressive culture (tv violence,lots of guns) or if i am wrong.

So please vote.
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Unread postby gwmss15 » Thu 21 Oct 2004, 06:16:18

interesting results so far many more people to vote yet only 5

iam from australia i feel that australia will have a softer landing than the northern hemiphese countries as we dont have very high population dencity also australia doesnt have a strong gun culture so it will be alot harder to form small private armies that could form in the US

only 40 years ago very large numbers of people travelled by train and tram in the major citys so i dont feel it will be that hard to go back to this path

also there is a very strong level of enviornment awareness in the major population of australia and efforts in to energy conconservation and waste reduction have been qutie sucessfull.

also a lot of non urban people use alternative fuels in there farms and homes ie wind power to pump water solar energy to heat water and provide back up power to there machines on the farms
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Unread postby Licho » Thu 21 Oct 2004, 06:32:04

lol@ results :-) Very very interesting, why is that?
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Unread postby chris-h » Thu 21 Oct 2004, 12:52:48

Very interesting.
At the time that i write this post 18 votes


85 % of USA residents predict HARD landing.
15 % of USA residents predict SOFT landing.

Outside USA

23 % of NON Usa residents predict HARD landing.
77 % of NON Usa residents predict SOFT landing.


More votes are needed please.
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Unread postby Licho » Thu 21 Oct 2004, 19:12:42

Could it be caused just by more driving and more apparent oil dependence in USA rather then by "cultural" differences?
If you have to drive to work each day and your family has 3 cars, "hard" might seem more likely to you than if you have 1 car in family and walk/mass transit to work..
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Unread postby Kingcoal » Thu 21 Oct 2004, 21:29:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Licho', 'C')ould it be caused just by more driving and more apparent oil dependence in USA rather then by "cultural" differences?
If you have to drive to work each day and your family has 3 cars, "hard" might seem more likely to you than if you have 1 car in family and walk/mass transit to work..

Since fertilizers and pesticides are made from oil and natural gas, the price of food will go up and it's availability will go down. Land has been made orders of magnitude more productive from oil and gas products. If you generate electricity using coal, that coal plant has to be fed on a daily basis. The train or trucks used to get the coal to the power plant uses diesel fuel. As diesel goes up, so does your electric bill. There are hundreds more examples of the hidden presence of hydrocarbons in our lives.

America will have a hard landing financially because our fiscal policy requires economic growth. Our government prints money at will and has been able to do so due to the need for petrodollars around the world. The dollar has been falling and high oil prices make that fall that more painful to owners of US dollars - China, Japan, etc. If they start spending those dollars, we will have very high inflation, which will cripple our economy and the world economy as a whole. That is what we mean by hard landing.

America has a growing population, while Europe's and even China's growth is flat. We have high immigration and all those mouths need to be fed. While I live in farm country, next to a coal mine, a lot of the country lives in contrived communities which are uneconomical without cheap oil, example: Los Vegas. Los Vegas is in the middle of a desert and everything has to me trucked in.

I don't agree with the food riot, roving mob theory. By that time, population growth will have reversed and many will have died off. You can't put up too much of a fight if you're starving. Try going without food for a week and see how aggressive you feel.

Unless we invent a new limitless energy source, that's the future. I don't know enough about Australia to predict what will happen there. At the least, everything will become more expensive and fewer jobs will be available. Expensive oil is a worldwide hidden tax on everything.
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hard o soft

Unread postby gogota » Thu 21 Oct 2004, 23:31:28

I have create a poll for hard and soft crash a month before. Most vote iit soft, but now most vote it hard.

The most important thing is analyse the situation using the event that is happening now and later. They will give you a better hint for your answer.
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Unread postby Licho » Fri 22 Oct 2004, 05:50:18

Kingcoal, yes, price of food will go up, but lower availiability? Agriculture is using just a tiny part of oil so does pesticide production. Change will be gradual, so that transportation will have time to adjust (for example to use elecitrc trains). And fertilizers are made without natural gas easilly, ng is just cheap source of hydrogen for the process, you can do it with little extra energy in thousands different ways...
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Unread postby Kingcoal » Fri 22 Oct 2004, 10:15:50

Now my optimistic side. On my way to work today I passed an old trolley station remade into a Hair Salon. This former station is in a small town outside of Allentown, PA which by no means is an urban setting. Most people in America outside of major cities have never seen an electric trolley, but they used to be the defacto mode of public transport for the average person. That was until the Auto companies conspired to put them out of business. In the northeast in particular, trolleys were all over rural areas between large towns and cities. In fact, a lot of the major roads were originally trolley routes which have long since been paved over.

Additionally, the US has a lot of freight rail which could also carry passengers. However, I look at SEPTA (http://septa.org) and their finding that electric train lines as the only ones cost effective enough to keep running.

We don't have much conventional oil in North America, but we have plenty of coal, which is used for about half our electric generation. If our roads and highways empty out due to very expensive fuel costs, they leave open a place to lay tracks. I've read that railroads are about 1/10th the cost of a highway in initial cost and even less for upkeep. I can't see something like this happening until the reality of permanently rising fuel prices is plainly accepted as fact.
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