[MD]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JustinFrankl', '
')89.3% of all statistics are made up on the spot.

[MD]

I will pick up this devil's advocate banner, same message, different approach.

Take the average middle aged American male, 47 years old.(that would be me).

My earliest memories of technology involved simple electronic toys, and transistor radios.

Every year brought new marvels under the Christmas tree.

Every year brought an incremental increase in my standard of living.

Every year I have seen the "hard science fiction" of the fifties, sixties, and seventies prove accurately prophetic, one marvel at a time.

Every year has provided new and more efficient labor saving devices.

Every year has included a major crisis, be it war or natural disaster.

Every year the crisis has been overcome.

Why wouldn't I assume research will continue to provide solutions?

Why wouldn't I assume we will conquer space?

Why wouldn't I assume a "star trek" future?

Why wouldn't I shrug off peak oilers as just a bunch of fringe whackos?

Why wouldn't I?

(damn, I about convinced myself!)

[markam]

Lets see, you are 47 years old. That means you have lived through 0.002% of the time that humans have been on the planet (.7% if you are fundementalist). You have lived through about 0.000001% of the earths life.

Expecting the rest of human history to be like the 0.002% you have lived through is like a 7 second old baby to expect the rest of his life to be just like the first 7 seconds.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', ' ')That is basically the message I have been trying to communicate on here for almost a year now.

[markam]

Of course we could take the long view. 4.5 billion years ago, this was a lifeless molten planet. Now look at it. Of course things always get better over time

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JustinFrankl', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'P')eak oil, whenever it happens, is the end of cheap oil, not the end of oil! So many seem caught up in the idea that once the peak hits we will spiral out of controll down to utter doom, but I think that scenario has a 15% chance of coming to pass or less.

[holmes]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('markam', 'O')f course we could take the long view. 4.5 billion years ago, this was a lifeless molten planet. Now look at it. Of course things always get better over time

[holmes]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JustinFrankl', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'P')eak oil, whenever it happens, is the end of cheap oil, not the end of oil! So many seem caught up in the idea that once the peak hits we will spiral out of controll down to utter doom, but I think that scenario has a 15% chance of coming to pass or less.

[MD]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('markam', 'L')ets see, you are 47 years old. That means you have lived through 0.002% of the time that humans have been on the planet (.7% if you are fundementalist). You have lived through about 0.000001% of the earths life.

Expecting the rest of human history to be like the 0.002% you have lived through is like a 7 second old baby to expect the rest of his life to be just like the first 7 seconds.

[markam]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he great outdoors is not getting better. quite the opposite.

[markam]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')herefore I suppose I do not meet your qualifications for "fundamentalist"

[holmes]

MD its bred into the human race now. Huge masses have been bred in the cities and burbs. the brains have left the country and migrated to the cities. they have no idea what has changed and what is real. how can u expect a human that everything they have eaten or consumed has been off a shelf. mass propagation of cement enclosed tv screen/monitor human breeds. EVERYTHING is normal to the majority of humans in the US anyway. Its what/all they know. cant speak for other countries.

[Ibon]

About 5 months ago in a cafe steeped deeply in the doomer camp and seeing imminent collapse I eloquently outlined the perfect storm scenario of peak oil, GW, economics and geopolitics to my wise older sister. She caught the logic of the story I weaved and agreed with many points. In the end she did ask me if I didn't think it rather an odd coincidence that the upcoming collapse seems to follow so exactly the time line of my own life, born of an era of promise and increasing abundance for the first 45 years of my life and seeing collapse reigning in on the next couple of decades as I slowly age and die. She mentioned that it is rather suspicious that this peak oil collapse scenario I was weaving in my mind just happened to all be occuring with such perfect synchronicity with my own cycle of birth and death.

I have many times on this forum mentioned the utmost caution we have to give to our own biases whether optimistic or pessimistic in our future projections. I look into the future starting from a premise that I cannot trust or put much faith in my own conclusions.

[markam]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'a')ll be occuring with such perfect synchronicity with my own cycle of birth and death

[Aaron]

I am quite impressed...

The first one of these went poorly compared to this thread.

It's seems like I can't soft-sell the board with vague references and twisted logic with any degree of success anymore.

You folks are simply to aware now to fall for that nonsense.

I don't really know what else to say, except Thank You...

Without your steady realism I would all but give up on humanity.

No matter how slim a margin it is... you renew my faith in man.

Oh wait... here ya go...

----------------------------

You people are my shepherd; I shall not want.

You maketh me to lie down in green pastures:
& leadeth me beside the solar generators.

You restoreth my oil:
You leadeth me in the paths of sustainable living.

Yea though I walk thru the peak along Hubbert's Curve of Death, I will fear no depletion.

Thy conservation & promises of fusion, they comfort me.


Thou preparest a table before me in the presence of mine enemies: thou anointest my head with oil; my cup runneth over.


Surely goodness and mercy shall follow me all the days of my life: and I will dwell in the house of the peak oil for ever.

Amen

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', ' ')Monte you seriously need to take a long vacation and work back into having a sense of humor. I have advovcated my beleif honestly for the entire time I have been here and played Devils Advocate with my Cornucopia thread, so for what reason do you disparage my knowledge of basic english terminology?

[holmes]

im not offended. Im not sure what would have offended us? LOL.
Im not sure when swhtf but Im just looking at the price at the pump. once its 6 bucks in all states the time really has come. So im hoping ill get out of the shitstem by then. Now if I could get my taxes invested in ecological paradigm sytems I could get out earlier. Its too bad we are forced to continue investing in a dead end system. Thats a big thing to me: having to invest in the unsustainable. Hope I get out in time. wish I had the choice to invest that cash in sustainable systems.
Let us pray!
Amen!

[MD]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('markam', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')herefore I suppose I do not meet your qualifications for "fundamentalist"

[rogerhb]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MD', 'I') beleieve[sic] the bible to be full of truth. (but is not the exclusive source of all truth)

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', ' ')Monte you seriously need to take a long vacation and work back into having a sense of humor. I have advovcated my beleif honestly for the entire time I have been here and played Devils Advocate with my Cornucopia thread, so for what reason do you disparage my knowledge of basic english terminology?