[aflatoxin]

Just for a hoot, I got an estimate for a turn-key 5 kw grid tie system from a reputable dealer.

This system will produce a year-round average of at least 30 kw/h a day, even after 15 years according to the warranty from Sharp (PV module manufacturer) I live in New Mexico. I easily have enough roof area to put in 10 kw of panels (I have a 1200 SF house, and a 1000 SF shop building) Based on the roof area estimate panels are 40" by 70", or ~ 20 SF each, 25 panels, I could put in far more panels than I could ever use.

Price includes installation, panels, permits, racks, wire, labor, inverter, everything.

The total installed price comes to $42,000. <ouch> I could do a lot of the work myself and take about $12,000 off that. If I spent some time reducing my consumption, I could probably get by with a 3kw system. This is still a lot of money, but it is more in the "joe everyman" world, where people spend 15-20 k on a car that has near zero residual after 5 years.

Based on the $42k figure, the payout is only 11 years, at 2005 average prices for power from PNM. I do consulting work for PNM, and they are planning new gas-fired turbine plants. Based on this little fact, I'm expecting electricity to become much more costly in the future.

Heres some details: A 30% credit up to $2000 off my 2006 and 2007 taxes. (so in other words spend 7k on solar stuff, get 2 k off income taxes) After this initial 3-year period, there are tax savings every year thereafter. ($2000 comes to mind, but I may be wrong here)

PNM does net metering, a 5 kw system would stop that sucker cold, So, I would not spend ~ $.08 on the first 200 kw/h per month, and not spend $.11 on the next 800 kw/month (I average about 1000 kwh/month. Here's the intriguing part, PNM will PAY me $.13 a kw/h for whatever I produce, even if I use every watt before it hits the grid. So, in a sense, I'm selling power to the utility for $.23 a kwh, and buying it back for $.08.

When I was a young chemical engineering student, I did a research project on the economics of solar energy. My conclusion was that it would take 40 years to payback a 5 kw system 20 miles from the nearest power pole, at $1000 a pole to bring power out to the site. Now it's looking like I can put a system in the middle of a city and payback comes in less than 12 years at current prices.

I don't think I'm going to go out and spend 42k tomorrow, but I am seriously considering putting the electrical end, minus the panels in and then putting whatever tax-advantaged solar energy money into more panels every year.

Of course, I may be better off buying as much gold and ammo as I can carry, and getting ready to hide in a spiderhole for a couple of years. The very idea that I could peacefully enjoy cold beer, air conditioning, and garden fresh produce while the surrounding populace was having a tough go of things is pretty ridiculous. I guess the real question is if the meltdown is more than 11 years off.

[markam]

That is of course in New Mexico. Those of us living in the second cloudiest city in america would need about 2 acres of area for solar panels and would have an infinite payback time.

[tsakach]

I did the math for this as well. It costs $10k just to plug into the grid even though there is a pole right on the corner. After connecting to the grid and investing in the gridtie system, the only benefit for generating surplus energy would be receiving a credit towards future grid usage - the electric company where I am at won't send any money for surplus energy generated by the solar system.

I decided to pass on connecting to the grid and concentrate on reducing consumption of electricity. After reshuffling all the electricity-consuming gadgets, which included switching to DC wherever possible, I am able to get by on 3.8kwh/day. The setup consists of two independent solar systems: a 12V DC system, and a 24v AC system. Incredibly, the DC system consists of a single 80 watt panel and two golf cart batteries, yet it provides all the lighting, powers an automobile sound system, and runs various DC motors. The AC system consists of 6 x 120 watt panels, 8 golf cart batteries and a 3kw inverter. This is not a large solar system by any means. But it powers a computer, networking equipment and AC motors, including an electric cement mixer. I have a diesel generator available in case I need to do heavy duty stuff like arc welding.

Total cost: $6000 for the off-grid system with built-in conservation measures, vs $39,000 for the gridtie system without conservation.

[send_oil_please]

The MidWest Renewable Energy Association (www.the-mrea.com) and Focus On Energy of Wisconsin might be places you would like to contact, regardless where you live. They are putting in place programs for education, rebates and Site Assessment Programs for PV, Wind, etc that are being adopted by other states and foreign countries. The MREA is the only place in the world offering classes for certification in Site Assessing for Alternative Energies).

Anyway, what you do depends a lot on where you plan on living, but in most cases, I think acting as a mini-utility is a Very Good Idea (later you can charge your kids to play computer based on their consumption and the loss of sale back to the grid by their little games...)

Also, Electricity will almost certainly be the Primary Energy Medium for the foreseeable future simply by default (and inspite of the crappy, old infrastructure - story on BBC about Dogs in New York Electrocuted By Stray Voltage in Sidewalks.... (do not be alarmed by the man behing the curtain folks")

Look into Solar Mining Company - read the interviews with the Company President. He has the Utility Model down to a Science and this time around I believe will be wildly successful (if they can handle the growth - and that can be a serious problem when you consider timing energy demand/production/distrubution-limits of Grid... etc).

[grabby]

Think of it this way, when the grid goes down you could disconnect and use your power, but there is nothing to stay in the house for. If you are in an outlying area in Arizona, there is no food or water. The water pressure will be zero.

Nukes will be used probably before the grid goes down, your panels will be instantly destroyed by electromag pulse. solar acts like an antenna.

Investment now, if it lasts 11 years, youll get your money back. if we don't go to 11 years you loose money.

I will say keep your money, pay your cheaper power even in the short term, as the rates go up, just use less then. A solar system is one more headache to have to fix and take care of. Go to the pool and spa instead for now, instead of climbing on roofs all summer and falling off.

Cut back on anything, when it is leaving time you'll only take the coat on your back and it will be very painful to leave those panels behind, unless they are melted, then you'll kick yourself anyway.. It will be easier on you if you don't have the headache or the knowledge of leaving them behind.

You aren't going to be growing food in arizona, there isn't any water there.
you will have to leave..

Bottom line, don't invest much in anything you can't take with you, and I don't think you will be taking much with you.

Where will you go? Midwestern Oregon. Lots of rain, not too hot, you can grow anything by throwing a seed in the ground, and your on the west coast with not much nuclear dust coming in over the pacific. Western washington is ok, but much ranier and colder, you'll get depressed and probably kill yourself there.
Oregon has nice beaches, weather water you can live just walking for a while.

California?
forgetabout it, too crowded, no water, polllution and desease form lots of dead people.

The purest point is Forks washington, guaranteed you will survive a nuclear holocost there but it rains every day.


Oregon is best.
coosbay to florence area. You can make water daily even if it doesnt rain just by putting a plastic cheet on the ground . condensation in am gives lots of water. Beautiful ocean also.

Arizona not water friendly.

A good pair of leather shoes, a coat, small backpack and a favorite book.

[aflatoxin]

Water: I live about 200 feet from the Rio Grande. I dug a well with a fence post-hole digger. Water was 10 feet down. THe irrigation ditch is the western boundry of my yard. It was dug in the 1800's. and supplies water to the reservation to my south. Indians have primacy, so there will always be water in that ditch if there is water in the river, as long as there's snow on the mountains...

Factor out out evil governor, Mr. Bill Richardson, and his evil Punk, Mayor Martin Chavez. At any rate...

I just got my most recent energy bill.. What a surprise. I ran over my gas meter last year on accident, and after re-plumbing my entire property, every f&^in inch of pipe, the benevolent utility company gave me a new meter. NG consumption 1/2 of last years (Yes, I'm trying to save). Gas now $50 a month. 70 f in the house, 30 minute showers. I have a tankless water heater and a 94% condensing furnace, good insulation, and it's going to get better.

Electricity is the bigger surprise. I suppose the natural result of having a couple of rottweiler/shepard junkyard crosses, combined with my 12-gauge kill-now-and-I-dont really-care-why-you-are-in-MY-yard wife resulted in the utility resorting to putting a NEW automatic radio-meter reading type meter in.

My electric bill dropped 50%. no kidding. Last year, I went through 1013 kwh in Jan, this year, it's 536.

Solar energy is now a LOT more economical.

Those pinheads were ripping me off for over 10 years. I'm going to put current transformers on my electric line hooked up to analog strip charts just to make sure they dont do it again. I'm going to put a meter run in with an orifice DP gauge with a chart to make sure it does not happen with gas either. It is not rocket science to see if this is happening to you other energy consumers.

I'd bet I've spent thousands of dollars because of meter calibrations.

I'd be happy to give suggestions to check the veracity of your meters. In the meantime, I'm going to work toward turning the utility companies off.

[oilfreeandhappy]

PVs are getting enticing in Colorado also. Here's a link that mentions that Xcel Energy, with the passing of Amendment 37, is paying for almost 1/2 of the installation costs here.

http://www.sunelectricsystems.com/

I'm in the process of pricing a system with rooftop PV shingles. We also have Net Metering. I get my electricity from Platte River Power Authority, so I can't take advantage of XCel's program.
Jim
http://home.comcast.net/~oil_free_and_happy/

[WisJim]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oilfreeandhappy', '
')I'm in the process of pricing a system with rooftop PV shingles.