Peak Oil
Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Rather worrying article...

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL
Post a reply

Re: Rather worrying article...

Unread postby clifman » Thu 23 Feb 2006, 11:05:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 't')hey have the right to exit as a sovereign state


Love that little Freudian typo - the American Empire would certainly agree that pretty much all nations - especially those rich in resources we covet - have this right, and we'll be happy to help them exercize it...
The generations of the 20th & early 21st centuries have decided to burn it all and leave nothing but charred remains for those who (may) follow - without apology.

Read William Catton, Derrick Jensen, Paul Chefurka, Daniel Quinn, Alexis Ziegler, Kevin Anderson, Jennifer Francis, Guy Mac...
User avatar
clifman
Wood
Wood
 
Posts: 45
Joined: Wed 28 Sep 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Virginia Blue Ridge, USA
Top

Re: Rather worrying article...

Unread postby MrBill » Fri 24 Feb 2006, 15:55:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'I') know it's important to discredit Maathai's work, but it does address the issues you mentionm Mr Bill. Really wish folks could be bothered to read about some of these things people are actually doing to solve some of these major problems...

But no, it's just more important to say "nobody is doing anything."




Now, I feel bad for being part of the problem and not part of the solution. Sorry. Okay, Ms Maathai is not without controversy. She seems to believe and publicy say that AIDS is a western plot against Africa [her and Mbeki it seems] instead of a problem related to African promiscuity [a cultural issue which I will not go into now, but interesting recent research over bats]. Needless to say, she has done well to plant trees, and I am sure she means well, but let's talk about some people who really have done something to improve the world.

My Grandparents. They will be 90 years old this month. Two children. Gave a lot back to their community. Their children grew up well. Educated. Families of their own. Now grandchildren. 0 to 3 children per family. Less than replacement numbers on average. Nothing special about them. Just good folks who will leave this earth better than they found it. No Nobel prizes, but lot's of other prizes and awards. Okay, so you get my point. Good folks from countries that are well organized and run. They did not have an easy life. My great grandmother died of the 1918 flu leaving my grandmother an orphan. She helped raise her step brothers and children. Farm burnt down. Killing a few of her siblings. The Depression. The drought on the Prairie. Riding the rails. Everyone has their story. Not an easy life, but they worked hard and kept their values.

To be honest, we will never solve any problems for anyone else. They have to come to terms with their own situation. I am sure when these African countries declared independence they thought it would be easy. Just take the resources and the infrastructure that was already in place and run it by the people, for the people. What went wrong? Perhaps cultural differences?

I am saying, Kenya has many problems. More than they had in 1965. What have they done with their country in the past 40 years? Sorry if I am a little cynical. I do not see any progress. None lasting. One step forwards, two steps backward. The Nobel prizes have become just another politically correct award based on proportional representation. They are not addressing the underlying problems which is sustainable development.

Sorry to bring my person into the argument. Bit tired tonight. Have a nice weekend. Cheers.
The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
User avatar
MrBill
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 5630
Joined: Thu 15 Sep 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Eurasia
Top

Re: Rather worrying article...

Unread postby MrBill » Fri 24 Feb 2006, 16:09:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '
')But I fail to see how having fewer children is a poor policy choice if you have surplus labor? They have governments. Their governments have the ability to tax and legislate. Surely if they have the right to exit as a sovereign state they have the obligation to provide for their people's needs as well? Or is that just a rich world dumb idea?


Trying to legislate sex is a waste of time. The solution has little to do with law and lots to do with things like access to contraceptives, education for women, and discouraging fundamentalist interpretations of religion that encourage people to breed. Plus a situation where having lots of children is more of a disadvantage than an advantage.



No, you are right Doly, we cannot coerce them to anything. We cannot even intervene in cases of genocide. But we are morally obligated to keep ever increasing numbers from starving to death due to their increasing numbers. If you cannot solve over population and promote birth control you cannot solve the after effects of post-peak oil; of climate change; of soil degration, salientation and erosion; of access to fresh water and sanitation; of loss of natural habitat or flora, fauna and marine species; or educate the great unwashed masses, so why waste anytime talking about it?
The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
User avatar
MrBill
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 5630
Joined: Thu 15 Sep 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Eurasia
Top

Re: Rather worrying article...

Unread postby Odin » Fri 24 Feb 2006, 19:45:25

There may be a moderate die-off, but it will be almost entirely in the 3rd world. Why? currently we could easily feed everyone on eath, but people still starve because it is more profitable to sell to the developed world, where they can charge higher prices. When peak oil starts to cause a drop in agricultural production in the developed world, the developed world will just outbid the poor people in the developing world for more of thier food, letting the 3rd-worlders starve. The developed and nearly developed world (China, South Korea, etc.) world has most of the power, they will protect thier population from starvation, even if the 3rd world suffers as a result.
"Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis." -Starvid

The 2nd Law of Thermodynamics only applies in a closed system; Earth is NOT a closed system.
User avatar
Odin
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 89
Joined: Sat 28 Jan 2006, 04:00:00
Location: Moorhead, MN, USA
Top

Re: Rather worrying article...

Unread postby Ludi » Fri 24 Feb 2006, 23:34:53

Mr. Bill, I honestly don't see how you can say the Greenbelt Movement isn't addressing sustainable development. You really have totally lost me with your comments.


"The Movement informs and educates participants about the linkages between degradation of the environment and development policies. It encourages women to create jobs, prevent soil loss, slow the processes of desertification, loss of bio-diversity and plant and to eat indigenous foodcrops. The organization tries to empower women in particular and the civil society in general so that individuals can take action and break the vicious circle of poverty and underdevelopment."

http://gbmna.org/a.php?id=136
Ludi
 
Top

Re: Rather worrying article...

Unread postby MrBill » Sat 25 Feb 2006, 03:28:52

Umm, I do not know what happened to my last post, so hope it still shows up?

However, thanks for the link. I totally support the aims of the greenbelt movement. Their goals are equally applicable to supporting green buffer zones in the developed world as in the developing world. Thanks. Will see if my post re appears before re typing it. Thanks.
The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
User avatar
MrBill
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 5630
Joined: Thu 15 Sep 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Eurasia
Top

Re: Rather worrying article...

Unread postby Ludi » Sat 25 Feb 2006, 10:18:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Peak_Plus', 'A')n agricultural-based economy is not dependent on its agricultural methods. Right?


The methods by which food is raised are very important to the workings of the entire society. A society in which more people are involved with growing their food in a sustainable way, with sustainability and care for the ecosystem paramount, will be a very different society from one in which a few people grow food in an unsustainable way which disregards the ecosystem. It is a matter of values. Values inform methods and vice versa.

And if you don't think our society is dependent on its agricultural methods (which require large amounts of energy inputs) then I think we must be working with very different sets of information about peak oil.
Ludi
 
Top

Re: Rather worrying article...

Unread postby Ludi » Sat 25 Feb 2006, 10:48:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '
')
I totally support the aims of the greenbelt movement. Their goals are equally applicable to supporting green buffer zones in the developed world as in the developing world.


I'm glad. :)
Ludi
 
Top

Re: Rather worrying article...

Unread postby Peak_Plus » Mon 27 Feb 2006, 04:32:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Odin', 'c')urrently we could easily feed everyone on earth

Twice over.
Paradox as it seems, much of the problem is that we (in the first world) could easily feed everyone on earth. We almost pay the world to take our excess food off our hands. In return, we do not "need" that which the average person in the third world would have to offer - food. If we were to need it, the local prices would rise, farmers would prosper, the economy would diversify, society would be on its way toward change and riches (relatively speaking) and - stability(?).
At least it would have worked in the pre-peak world. In the post-peak, I have no clue.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Odin', 't')hey will protect thier population from starvation, even if the 3rd world suffers as a result.

You seem to put a lot of faith in "they". Did "they" of the falling soviet empire protect their population from starvation? Did "they" of the Depression stop the Dust Bowl? Did "they" in the victorious nations hold back the spanish flu after WWI? Some of "them" will be able to protect/support some of us in the first world. Roll your dice and see if you're one of them...
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'A')nd if you don't think our society is dependent on its agricultural methods (which require large amounts of energy inputs) then I think we must be working with very different sets of information about peak oil.

Oh, I <i>do</i> think our society is dependent... But you're missing my point. I'm only talking about birth rates. NOTHING ELSE.
Wanderer/Gatherer societies have relatively few children - usually enough to replace themselves, those who die on the way and maybe one more. Their way of life does not allow for more. (Compare oranutans - the extreme of course - who space their children at about six years.)

An agricultural society / way of life demands a surplus of children / helping hands. The more the merrier.

Industrial societies are a bit more difficult. Societal restraints tend to break apart. Having children does not seem to be connected to one's economic well-being.

"Mature" economies and our informational economy demands a negative reproductive balance. Our lifestyles hardly allow for more than a "wish" child or two. We need to change our lifestyles if we want to have children - and we're not willing to do that.

And the Post Peak? Will probably look very much like the "Mature" economies.

Do you see what I'm trying to get at?

By the way Ludi, why are you not in Kenya working greenbelt?
This is the way the world ends,
Not with a bang but a wimper!
T.S. Eliot
User avatar
Peak_Plus
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 212
Joined: Fri 01 Oct 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Germany/Ohio
Top

Re: Rather worrying article...

Unread postby Doly » Mon 27 Feb 2006, 06:34:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Peak_Plus', 'I')n return, we do not "need" that which the average person in the third world would have to offer - food.


We do import food from the third world, such things as cocoa and peanuts. But you are right, nothing that we strictly need.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Peak_Plus', '
')Do you see what I'm trying to get at?


No. Don't disagree with anything, just don't see what's your point.
User avatar
Doly
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 4370
Joined: Fri 03 Dec 2004, 04:00:00
Top

Re: Rather worrying article...

Unread postby MrBill » Mon 27 Feb 2006, 06:45:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Peak_Plus', 'I')n return, we do not "need" that which the average person in the third world would have to offer - food.


We do import food from the third world, such things as cocoa and peanuts. But you are right, nothing that we strictly need.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Peak_Plus', '
')Do you see what I'm trying to get at?


No. Don't disagree with anything, just don't see what's your point.



I can live without many things, but not without coffee in the morning. Most of that is grown between the Tropic of Cancer and the Tropic of Capricorn. Too bad the World Bank encouraged Vietnam to go into coffee production. Their poor quality beans flooded the market and destroyed the incomes of S.American coffee growers. Ah, good intentions, unintended consequences.
The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
User avatar
MrBill
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 5630
Joined: Thu 15 Sep 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Eurasia
Top

Re: Rather worrying article...

Unread postby Peak_Plus » Mon 27 Feb 2006, 06:52:40

Thanks Bill - not only the first world is producing too much food... at the moment! But we all know that will change soon. But whether your beans are going to come from VietNam or Brazil, can't say. Just hope the Chinese will buy up the VN market:-|
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Peak_Plus', '
')Do you see what I'm trying to get at?


No. Don't disagree with anything, just don't see what's your point.

I am not addressing the question of whether individual farming methods are better or worse or possible before and/or after PO. I was in the middle of the population question w/ mrbill and Ludi. What will change population growth rates? My answer was: change the underlying economic structure and it will change itself. Maybe there's nothing to "get" -. just two distinct discussions.
This is the way the world ends,
Not with a bang but a wimper!
T.S. Eliot
User avatar
Peak_Plus
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 212
Joined: Fri 01 Oct 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Germany/Ohio
Top

Re: Rather worrying article...

Unread postby Peak_Plus » Mon 27 Feb 2006, 06:56:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '
')I can live without many things, but not without coffee in the morning. Most of that is grown between the Tropic of Cancer and the Tropic of Capricorn. Too bad the World Bank encouraged Vietnam to go into coffee production. Their poor quality beans flooded the market and destroyed the incomes of S.American coffee growers. Ah, good intentions, unintended consequences.

Can't you grow coffee on Cyprus?!
This is the way the world ends,
Not with a bang but a wimper!
T.S. Eliot
User avatar
Peak_Plus
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 212
Joined: Fri 01 Oct 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Germany/Ohio
Top

Re: Rather worrying article...

Unread postby MrBill » Mon 27 Feb 2006, 07:07:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Peak_Plus', 'T')hanks Bill - not only the first world is producing too much food... at the moment! But we all know that will change soon. But whether your beans are going to come from VietNam or Brazil, can't say. Just hope the Chinese will buy up the VN market:-|
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Peak_Plus', '
')Do you see what I'm trying to get at?


No. Don't disagree with anything, just don't see what's your point.

I am not addressing the question of whether individual farming methods are better or worse or possible before and/or after PO. I was in the middle of the population question w/ mrbill and Ludi. What will change population growth rates? My answer was: change the underlying economic structure and it will change itself. Maybe there's nothing to "get" -. just two distinct discussions.



Off the top of my head (I can never be bothered to look these things up) I seem to remember from Jarrod Diamond or someone saying that the switch from draught power to the internal combustion engine resulted in a 25% increase in farmland dedicated to growing calories for human consumption either in the form of grain or as animal feed.

Quite interesting as now we have a switch from MTBE (environmentally a good thing) to ethanol, but not enough ethanol to use as an additive. Now, we are taking the best farmland out of production, those irrigated fields with enough heat units to grow 300 bushels of corn per acre, but we are going to burn those calories to run automobiles instead of feeding them to cattle and/or using them for human consumption.

That 25% gain in agricultural surplus is therefore reversed. Not too mention I question the sustainability of those yields given peak oil, but also falling water tables, depleted acquifiers, soil erosion, salienation and loss of land due to urban sprawl.

This should support agriculture in developing countries, but also increase the demand for marginal farmland to be used to grow crops like wheat, oats and barely that require fewer heat units, but also land for pasture and hay production. However, corn supplemented with soyabeans has more calories and energy per bushel than those other cereals, so one way or another you have less efficiency and therefore a smaller agricultural surplus. Feedlot economics are going out the window all things considered in favor or more local production, slaughter, packing and distribution. Invest in local packing plants and farmland.

Never the less, with the increase in global population from circa 6.5 billion to more than 9 billion those lost acres of productive farmland and burning food for transport fuel will have a double impact. Some of it will be good, if it means more local food production and higher farm incomes in developing countries, but if the surplus falls short of demand, then it could also mean periods of starvation at least on a regional level (like in sub-Sahara Africa now).

And how will I get my coffee? Roasted wheat, postem, is no substitute.

Serious problems, require serious solutions, like a good education?
The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
User avatar
MrBill
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 5630
Joined: Thu 15 Sep 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Eurasia
Top

Re: Rather worrying article...

Unread postby Peak_Plus » Mon 27 Feb 2006, 09:34:42

Bill,
You live on Cyprus, the island, right? (Greek or Turk side?)
Why can't you grow coffee there?
Are you buying up the land, so that you have something to offer us Northerners who can't afford to heat their homes any more?
Are you planting trees in your back yard, trying to reforest?
Postem?! It's been ages since I had Postem - cominig in after a snowy day. (That you even know the name!!!) My daughter drinks a version of it now and again.
Now I'm starting to get sentimental. Enough!
This is the way the world ends,
Not with a bang but a wimper!
T.S. Eliot
User avatar
Peak_Plus
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 212
Joined: Fri 01 Oct 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Germany/Ohio
Top

Re: Rather worrying article...

Unread postby MrBill » Mon 27 Feb 2006, 10:45:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Peak_Plus', 'B')ill,
You live on Cyprus, the island, right? (Greek or Turk side?)
Why can't you grow coffee there?
Are you buying up the land, so that you have something to offer us Northerners who can't afford to heat their homes any more?
Are you planting trees in your back yard, trying to reforest?
Postem?! It's been ages since I had Postem - cominig in after a snowy day. (That you even know the name!!!) My daughter drinks a version of it now and again.
Now I'm starting to get sentimental. Enough!



Well, on the Greek side. Cyprus has a very mild climate and can grow a variety of crops including very drinkable table wines. On the otherhand, too much development here is putting strain on potable water supplies. The reservoirs are only 40% of capacity and the alternative to water rationing this summer is desalienating sea water. There have been large deposits of natural gas found between Cyprus, Egypt, Syria, Lebanon and Israel. This may lead to producers putting their facilities in Cyprus and should ensure Cyprus has natural gas supplies for the immediate future.

Worse comes to worse, we can live without heating in the winter and without airconditioning in the summer, just don't ask to get any productive work done between June and October. Siesta time. I reckon it is as good as place as any to weather avian flu out. Low population density and although disruptions of food and fuel would be inconvenient the island is small enough that I do not foresee riots in the streets. Close the airports and ports and you have the problem contained.

As for farmland. That is in N. Alberta where the extended family already owns mixed farming operations. The soil zone in N. Alberta is thin, grey woody soil with a short growing season. Ideal for cattle, hay, pasture, wheat, oats, barley and canola production, but far too far north for corn (except in the garden) and soyabeans. Not ideal, but we do have oil, gas, coal and the tar sands. Plus an abundance of fresh water and boreal forests for biomass and/or fuel. It is also pretty far from almost anywhere. Takes over three hours by car just to get to Edmonton, not exactly New Orleans or Fort Apache the Broncs in case of an emergency. A few days walk should calm them down I hope?

Global warming and climate change may make the area slightly warmer, but we will suffer from lack of snow cover in the winter and less precipitation in the summer. The water table has been dropping for twenty years now. Although we do not irrigate. Wrong soil type. Still, okay for dryland farming and mixed farming. I would personally look to add acres based on the ethanol story, but as a family unit, we have enough land, especially if it had to be farmed using other techniques than now.

Avian flu aside, I favor an Argentina vs. Zimbabwe style slow decline future scenario rather than a New Orleans/Mad Max type of catastrophe. I think we will survive the powerdown over several generations. We have the right infrastructure including farmers, mechanics, metal workers, carpenters, etc. in the family that can fix and keep machinery running, so long as we can power it using bio-diesel or ethanol produced from biomass. Might not be driving into town very often, but as far as producing crops, may look more like my how my Grandparents farmed. Big adjustments for sure, but likely our biggest worry would be jealous neighbors and/or theft of machinery or grain or cattle. That is a hard one to realistically protect against. It is next to impossible to thrive while others are struggling to survive.

My goal in life now is to raise Belgium draught horses like my Grandfather. That and Labradors and Newfoundlanders. Of course, have to shoot a mule deer every other week to keep them fed, but they are a nuisance these days anyways. Never saw one twenty years ago and now see herds of up to over a dozen at any given time in the fields in the evening. They love my mom's greenbelt of young trees. Tasty little snacks for a herd that is in desparate need of culling, but my mom won't let us speaking of demand and increasing populations putting strain on local supplies. It is fine to love deer, so long as they are not eating you out of ranch and home.
The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
User avatar
MrBill
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 5630
Joined: Thu 15 Sep 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Eurasia
Top

Re: Rather worrying article...

Unread postby Revi » Mon 27 Feb 2006, 12:55:13

It seems like a lot of people are talking about some kind of catastrophic collapse of the world economy. Nobody says when it's going to happen. Since they have no idea, I don't know if it helps much. What are we going to do about it?

The biggest challenge that I see for the coming century is maintaining soil fertility. We are going to try to make oil out of coal. That will strip the soil off of millions of acres of land. We will run our cars for a few more years and leave wastelands. It's already happening in West Virginia and Montana. What are we left with in the end? Land that won't grow anything and won't support people. I was even thinking that the forest cover we have in the east may not hold up once we hit a certain tipping point. How many trees can reseed into a gravel pit? Combined with increased acid rain from coal burning we could be like Easter Island before we know it.
User avatar
Revi
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 7417
Joined: Mon 25 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Maine
Top

Re: Rather worrying article...

Unread postby Revi » Mon 27 Feb 2006, 12:55:38

It seems like a lot of people are talking about some kind of catastrophic collapse of the world economy. Nobody says when it's going to happen. Since they have no idea, I don't know if it helps much. What are we going to do about it?

The biggest challenge that I see for the coming century is maintaining soil fertility. We are going to try to make oil out of coal. That will strip the soil off of millions of acres of land. We will run our cars for a few more years and leave wastelands. It's already happening in West Virginia and Montana. What are we left with in the end? Land that won't grow anything and won't support people. I was even thinking that the forest cover we have in the east may not hold up once we hit a certain tipping point. How many trees can reseed into a gravel pit? Combined with increased acid rain from coal burning we could be like Easter Island before we know it.
User avatar
Revi
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 7417
Joined: Mon 25 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Maine
Top
Previous
Post a reply

Return to Economics & Finance

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 0 guests



cron