by jimk » Wed 15 Feb 2006, 19:06:27
I worked with Deffeyes & MacGregor at Princeton in 1976 & 1977. They gave me a copy of a Senate report by Hubbert. So that's 30 years now that I have been aware of peak oil. What I remember from that report was that world peak would probably hit maybe 2025 or 2030. So what's interesting is that generally the estimates of the peak date have moved earlier in time. Drives me a little batty when cornucopists say that lots of folks have predicted the peak and it always keeps moving out. Sure there is a lot of bad science in the world that is way off target, but there is good science too that gives a decently accurate picture of reality. Hubbert sure looks like pretty good science!
Just by way of introduction, I studied physics in college - four years of grad school earned me an MS. Been writing computer programs since then, programs that analyze designs of digital electronic circuits, i.e. chips.
Another book I read around 1991 that really influenced my outlook was Knowledge Value Revolution by Taichi Sakaiya. As I recall, the basic analogy is with the collapse of the Roman Empire.
Maybe the peak of civilization was really like 1914, or ok maybe 1972. Nobody will come out and announce that civilization has now entered the phase of collapse. At every time, there will be some good news and bright prospects, along with some bad news and bleak prospects. The long bumpy ride down looks just like this, like what we see.
Anyway it seems to me that there is a sort of perceptual problem here with time scales. All this peak oil and global warming business happens on a time scale of decades and centuries. Our lives happen on shorter time scales! The whole survivalist response, that somehow one can build a castle and live through the crisis, doesn't make sense. The "crisis" is likely a 500 year affair. Nobody lives for 500 years!
Of course the long crisis will probably looks like a series of shorter crises, and castles might be useful for some of these.
But in general, it seems to me that what we really ought to work for, the thing that has a chance of surviving and would be worth helping to survive, is the best parts of human culture and civilization. What are those best parts, and how can we do a kind of triage to figure out which we have any hope of preserving or keeping alive, that to me is the most interesting thing to discuss & puzzle over.