[pip]

I got the new copy of Hydrocarbon Processing yesterday. They have an article about Mexico's clean fuels program. As part of the article they show a graph of future Mexican oil output by field with Olmeca, Istmo, and Maya (Cantarell). The projection according to Hydrocarbon Processing is showing Maya peaking next year at 1.6 MM bpd and then declining to zero by 2016. I had heard of the steep decline expected but it’s still surprising to see 0 BPD from Cantarell in 10 years.

The bizarre thing is that the article throws up this semi-shocking chart showing Mexican oil production dropping by 2/3 in the next ten years and doesn’t make any mention of the problems that may cause. The only reference to the chart is for talking about how the crude qualities will change with Mayan out of the mix.

[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pip', 'I') got the new copy of Hydrocarbon Processing yesterday. They have an article about Mexico's clean fuels program. As part of the article they show a graph of future Mexican oil output by field with Olmeca, Istmo, and Maya (Cantarell). The projection according to Hydrocarbon Processing is showing Maya peaking next year at 1.6 MM bpd and then declining to zero by 2016. I had heard of the steep decline expected but it’s still surprising to see 0 BPD from Cantarell in 10 years.
The bizarre thing is that the article throws up this semi-shocking chart showing Mexican oil production dropping by 2/3 in the next ten years and doesn’t make any mention of the problems that may cause. The only reference to the chart is for talking about how the crude qualities will change with Mayan out of the mix.

[Novus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'T')hanks. This is incredibly bad. Pemex has commented on the WSJ story:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')FX Asia Focus Copyright 2006 AFX News Limited 9 Feb 2006
Mexican oil output could drop sharply - report
Pemex says it is confident it can make up for any decline at Cantarell by squeezing more output from other fields, but some analysts outside the company are far less sanguine. The study was carried out last year by Pemex experts. .

[cudabachi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lsu2001', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cudabachi', 'I')n the North Sea, it was much more common to use Floating Production Facilities in the the deep water prospects but there was always a lot of resistence to the idea in the GOM. That may have changed over the last few years as I know a number of companies were lobbying the MMS to allow them to use such facilities.

[DantesPeak]

Will modern civilization (or at least low oil prices) suffer the same fate as dinosaurs because of the same meteor? The final word on Cantarell.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Peak Oil Crisis Cantarell — An Omen? By Tom Whipple
There are a lot of bad things out there waiting to bite as the world moves towards peak oil— Iran, Iraq, Nigeria, Venezuela, China, globalization, and hurricanes to name a few. Last week a new bogeyman arose — super fast oil depletion.

Our story begins 65 million years ago when the Chicxulub meteor (or perhaps comet) crashed into the sea near the Yucatan Peninsula . This was one big bang, for it not only wiped out all our dinosaurs, but also took out 75% of the species living on earth. As our 10 km wide meteor was tooling along at 60,000 miles per hour when it hit, there was not much left of the meteor but vapor after the impact, but for a few seconds, there was a monster hole in the earth 100 miles in diameter. I won't go into all the terrible things that happened to our earth in the months after the blast, but few living things survived.

Our new hole promptly filled up with rubble (breccia, to geologists) pushed in by the rushing waters of the returning sea and landslides along the sides of the crater. Somewhere, between 65 million years ago and 1976, parts of this underwater rubble filled hole, filled up with about 35 billion barrels of oil. Making it one of the world's greatest oil fields. It is now called Cantarell.

[Novus]

Here are a few snipets I would like to highlight.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 't')he study's scenarios have Cantarell's production dropping from 2 million b/d to 875 thousand barrels a day by the end of next year and 520 thousand barrels a day by the end of 2008.

[TorrKing]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Novus', 'H')ere are a few snipets I would like to highlight.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 't')he study's scenarios have Cantarell's production dropping from 2 million b/d to 875 thousand barrels a day by the end of next year and 520 thousand barrels a day by the end of 2008.

[Jakeemon]

I've been following Peak Oil on this site for almost 12 months. Yet this is my first post, with the misreporting of kuwait's oil reserves and now the decline of Cantarell I'm really F#@King worried and think 2006 WILL be the downfall of cheap energy.

[AirlinePilot]

Welcome aboard!!! Try not to spend too much time here each day, it's bad for the psyche. I tend to agree, not a lot of time left for business as usual.

[mekrob]

I was trying to find the exact articles about Cantarells depletion rate (projected) on Google's news search. I typed in "Pemex Cantarell decline". The first two articles (didn't look further) both read "Peak Oil is now about us" (or close to that). Both were from different papers in Canada. They didn't give any doom or gloom, but only quoted ASPO and Simmons, and talked about Cantarell's production rates of past and projected future. An interesting note that I found in there was that Mexico's Pemex LOST more than $3 billion last year despite massive price increases.

One neighbor completely gets it, the other is only making it worse...Maybe the Mexicans realize this and are only stopping by the US on their way to Canada. Well, I'm off to join the Canadian Trail.

[OilyMon]

The majority of Canadians are as clueless as everybody else in the west. I work for a large Canadian energy company (a division of a large American one!) and most of the people I've met who work there have no concept of peak-oil and drive from the suburbs to work 50 + km (approx 30 + miles at least! - some drive much further). Granted most of the people I work beside are not in my peer group, but the majority of the people in my peer group are even more clueless - they're concerned primarily with getting a car, picking up 'chicks', fashion, television etc. Granted again my peer group is only a small cross-section of all people of my generation, but I consider them, from my point of view, to be in the majority. An older friend of mine, however, recently came to my place and we talked about a news special he saw on CNN. It was oil related and it scarred the crap out of him. He understood the ramifications of peak oil at least to the point that economically we depend on petroluem for subsistence. He left with my copy of "The End of Suburbia"... I do what I can but I think I was preaching to the choir. I've long ago given up trying to convince people of the possible ramifications and dangers involved in our economic system.

[Concerned]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilyMon', ' ')I do what I can but I think I was preaching to the choir. I've long ago given up trying to convince people of the possible ramifications and dangers involved in our economic system.

[ChoKyOTO]

*drips*

[SoothSayer]

I too have been following many posts here. One established mindset is to assume that Ghawar is the "gold standard" ... as long as Ghawar is OK then the world is OK. However with the other big name fields hitting problems like skittles it seems that public knowledge of peak oil will arrive by the back door.

Who cares if Saudi is still OK ... if all other fields are dropping 5-15% a year? The supply problems caused by these "unimportant" fields failing will still be horrendous. [If Ghawar then peaked in say 5 years time, I think the panic would set in] I suspect that things are now moving too fast for the governments to set up valid plans.

Note: I do NOT expect an imminent drastic collapse of oil supplies ... but a 5-10% gap between supply & demand developing over say 2 to 3 years could nevertheless cause major economic disturbances ... and the media, politicians, corporations etc will all try to stir things up for their own benefit.

[DantesPeak]

Recent stories out of Mexico confirm that Pemex is preparing for a sharp drop in Cantarell's production - plus they need about $12 to $17 billion per year for further development of resources:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')rivate funds needed to bolster output
Wire services El Universal March 31, 2006
FALLING RESERVES: Proven reserves have fallen every year for more than a decade, leaving the country with less than 10 years worth of oil reserves at current production levels. Pemex is now seeking to replace output at Cantarell, which contained 35 billion barrels of oil when discovered in 1976.

The field peaked in production at more than 2 million barrels a day in 2005 and will decline by 30 percent to 1.43 million barrels per day by the end of 2008, Pemex has forecast. Only Saudi Arabia´s Ghawar field is larger.

"It´s hard to compensate for a super giant field with something much less than a super giant field," said David Shields, an independent energy industry analyst in Mexico City who published a book in October on Pemex. Mexico´s last year of declining oil production was in 1999, after a plunge in prices the year before hurt investment.

[mekrob]

At another gasoline site that I go to, there are a few that are actually smart. One of the topics involved Cantarell. I think it's best if you just read this article for yourselves. I doubt that study can be found anywhere outside of PEMEX's archives. Any good hackers around here that speak Spanish?

Cantarell's Depletion

Some very scary shit to say the least. I thought the 14% that's been stated publicly was pretty horific. But then again I wouldn't be surprised if a sudden collapse (>20%/yr) happened. If a NOC (that is having financial trouble) is stating 14% depletion rate, then the more realistic scenario can't be too good.

[coyote]

So much attention has been paid to Ghawar, and whether the Saudis are telling the truth... "When Saudi Arabia peaks, the world peaks." Couldn't a hard nosedive by Cantarell and Burgan do it too, even if Ghawar remains strong?

[mekrob]

If Cantarell or Burghan alone had a hard nosedive, it wouldn't have to be even close to what this article writes for the effect to be massive. I don't think it would necessarilly usher in the end of the oil age, but if we had a .5 mpd drop from either of the fields (10% possibility IMO), it would be very hard to meet demand. This would probably have the same effect as a hurricane in the Gulf, except this oil could not be recovered.

And don't forget about the North Sea. It's depletion rate has been ACCELERATING (not surprising really when looking at the Hubbert Curve). But if this happens in other fields, and it can't be contained, then we could see massive declines. After all, if Cantarell starts at 14% this year, it could be up to 20% by the end of 2008. I thought this would get more attention here.

[mekrob]

Gary, well we get about 2 mpd from Mexico. Cantarell produces 2 mpd (well, it used to anyways). 10% of US oil consumption would be a massive loss. Katrina was 5% and that shook prices pretty badly. The major difference is that this won't be as sudden, even if it drops to half a million barrels per day by 2008.

[gary_malcolm]

I know oil is fungible... but isn't it true that Cantarell is our Super Giant? By that I mean don't we get more barrels from Cantarell then from Ghawar for US consumption?

G