[backstop]

Leanan -

I don't see how a geological change, (the peak in US oil production), has generated the evident cultural shift I referred to above -

Most people were either uninterested or unaware of it, and it's had no noticeable impact on ordinary life -

On the contrary - as America has expanded its power over and suction of other countries' resources, unprecedented wealth has flowed in,
but cultural decline has continued apace. But maybe wealth is bad for ones moral health ?

I'd agree that the national shame of the conduct of the war against Vietnam has to have played a part -

also, since the '60s was when the British Empire ceased to exist in the minds of the British people, and this news went round the world both in music and diplomacy,
maybe Americans' growing apathy since then reflects a lack of external stimulus ?

regards,

Backstop

[Primate]

Yes, Leanan, it does matter. Precisely because people on this board seem to be wondering how to spend their money, or the resources of the the community, for as along as we have them on this earth, wisely. New Orleans will not be rebuilt in any way that resembles the former New Orleans. That should be a comfort to many of you on this board.

I wonder why the cost of one bomber could fix many of our levees. I admire your assertions about man vs. nature. I believe them. How does this translate into action? Tell me what my father-in-law should do, who's been living with us since the flood? What about my friends and family? What should I tell my students (80% have returned to New Orleans--contrarty to some commets on this board, New Orleans is not a ghost town)? Can we be protected? What if we live above sea level? How long will we be safe? What's the answer? Nature wins out? Move out now, or for ever hold your peace?

I believe that, psychologically, many of you are afraid of the the circumstatnces that we are experiencing in New Orleans. It's kind of a preview of your peak oil future. You're frightened. And you should be. You are all scared shitless, and you should be.

But I have a few assertions of my own! I believe that man has been "pitted against nature" for the past 12,000 years pb (uncalibrated radiocabon dates). I have long believed that man has not yet adapted to the Neolithic "Revolution" (that is my profession). But despite my beliefs, I may be wrong, and the arguments that man has "lived with nature" for the two-to-three million prior to that date may be inaccurate. Even the argument that man has been successful becuase of that " two-two-three million year" episode may be erroneous.

Good luck to you all. I wish you all the best. I'm a peak oiler, and all that represents. I'm trying to live. I hope you live too.

[hull3551]

Many interesting and thought provoking points.

First, I too believe NO will take on a totally different form versus the city that I so dearly knew and loved. I too feel that much of the lower lying land should be returned to its natural state. This is obviously a huge sticking point, as much of the population residing in these areas were poor minorities. But unfortunately there seems no practical reason to reestablish these fragmented neighborhoods, especially when the bulk of these residents do not plan on returning.

But I am shocked at the inaction (whether intended or due to a pervasive lack of competence) of our government on many different levels. Reading about it and seeing it first-hand made me ashamed as a US citizen that there was such widespread ineptitude. Face it, our government is failing us.

But unfortunately, this very well may be the first of many large-scale catastrophic challenges awaiting the US in the upcoming decades. Right now the infrastructure is in a dismal state. The ASCE annually reports on the amount needed to rehabilitate our ailing power plants, airports, bridges, etc. – basically the entire US infrastructure. Its cost to bring the domestic infrastructure to an acceptable level of functionality is estimated at $1.6 TRILLION over the next five years. It doesn’t require a genius to realize this issue is not going to get addressed considering the US’ current fiscal priorities, and the country will continue its decay and collapse.

Add to this the increase effects of global climate change (eg, more intense hurricanes, drought), increased water issues (eg, the depletion of the Ogallala Aquifer), increased decrease of the tax revenues, projected recession, and the fact that the US is pretty much bankrupt. And then we stir PO into the mix, and I don’t foresee a very rosy future.

[Waterthrush]

This is a fascinating thread! I am reasonably convinced by the arguments tha many of you have made, that NOLA provides a glimpse of post-peak realities. Remember, in the original article, it's not just New Orleans but also the WTC, some of the most valuable real estate in the world.

After Katrina first hit I read a half-in-jest suggestion that rather than rebuilding, inhabitants should simply be given generous amounts of the rebuilding funds and told that that was their settlement. Although the fear of setting a precedent prevented anything like that happening, I wonder whether that would have helped, or harmed the situation? I suspect that many would have left, but with the funds to support themselves elsewhere.

But the current administration throws an odd angle into the whole mix: the Bush people dislike "government" so much that they don't really want to see effective government responses to problems. Really! An effective, efficient FEMA would "make people dependent" on government for solutions. The more effective a government agency is, the more it is filled with dedicated career employees, the less the Bush followers like it. They deliberately insert political appointees, cut the budgets, hobble the outreach. They most fear that people will become dependent. That is why the response to Katrina was so incompetent - the Bush people were deeply ambivalent about using the "government" to fix the problems. They remain so. They would rather see the whole New Orleans situation dissolve into chaos rather than see effective government solutions.

However, I think that modern states require more complex governments and generate that fearful thing, entitlements. We may go the other direction, towards an oligarchy with many poor people. Places like Renaissance Italy took this path.

I hope those of you in NOLA continue to write about what you see happening and what you are experiencing. There will be more of us in your situation as time goes by.

What kind of early spring is NOLA experiencing right now? Does the natural world seem different?

[Leanan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') don't see how a geological change, (the peak in US oil production), has generated the evident cultural shift I referred to above -

Most people were either uninterested or unaware of it, and it's had no noticeable impact on ordinary life -

[Leanan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') wonder why the cost of one bomber could fix many of our levees.

[backstop]

Leanan -

I'm happy to differ amicably over this point.

I'd observe that the US oil production was not owned by "the working stiff" to any significant degree,
and thus essentially it made no difference to his income when it peaked, and the majority of the oil supply began appearing in tankers from abroad.

I'd well agree that the corporations have bribed their way from 30 to 7% of US tax income
and that working people have been made to meet the shortfall, but that is plainly an issue of culture, not geology.

Thus it seems that the unprecedented incoming foreign wealth has simply been allocated increasingly unfairly -
owing to enough working people accepting the terrible delusion of being "temporarily embarrassed millionaires"
and thus being the opponents of effective government for the common good.

Between Roosevelt and Bush, Kennedy was perhaps a mid-point in cultural terms, and it is that ongoing cultural decline
that now gags the natural aspiration of the young from making their pivotal input.

Establishing the havens where the most aware of them can learn of skills valuable in the coming decades seems to me of paramount importance.
And it may be of still greater value in helping to raise the cultural aspirations of a new generation.

regards,

Backstop

[Leanan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')'d observe that the US oil production was not owned by "the working stiff" to any significant degree, and thus essentially it made no difference to his income when it peaked, and the majority of the oil supply began appearing in tankers from abroad.

[Revi]

[quote="backstop"]Leanan -


I'd observe that the US oil production was not owned by "the working stiff" to any significant degree,
and thus essentially it made no difference to his income when it peaked, and the majority of the oil supply began appearing in tankers from abroad.
Quote from Backstop


I think the reason we have been able to continue consuming is that our "empire" that includes Saudi, West Africa, etc still had some oil. Now that it has peaked we are in real trouble.

[Leanan]

The Oil Drum just posted an article about the difference between the U.S. and European democracies, and why that makes it so hard for the U.S. political system to respond to peak oil:

http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/2/15/104340/306

[Keith_McClary]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leanan', 'Y')es, Greer's work is based on Tainter's. BTW, there's an HTML version of Greer's paper here:

http://www.xs4all.nl/~wtv/powerdown/greer.htm

I suspect Greer's "catabolic collapse" is our most likely fate. Which might be good for us right now, but really terrible in the long run.

[Keith_McClary]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('hull3551', 'P')ersonally I am appalled that people here feel there is no need to assist in the rebuilding effort of NO because of its lack of economic benefit and contribution.

[backstop]

Keith MC -

I have to differ fundamentally with the history of Britain according to the Roman Church as sketched above.

Being Welsh by ancestry, I'm well aware that when Rome was finally ejected from the southern two thirds of this land
(it was never able to take Alba in the north and spent 150 years trying to take Wales)

there was for several generations a unified resistance to invasion by Norsemen & Saxon trying to become the new power.

Eventually they got the south & east, but Wales held for about 700 years and Scotland for over 1,000,
and both these nations are now well on their way, peaceably, to recognition as Interdependent States of the United Kingdom.

I suggest that history according to the clergy of a defunct Roman empire has a tendency to self-glorification, and should not be taken at face value.

Regards,

Backstop