by bart » Wed 15 Feb 2006, 17:02:39
I finished the Tertzakian book last night. It's an easy read, seems aimed at the business/investment audience. His background is an interesting mix of geology and business. He seems reasonable and well-informed.
T is adamant that we are approaching the end of cheap oil and we have to prepare for it.
He says we are approaching a "break point," at which the existing mix of energy sources no longer proves adequate. He predicts a period of disruption and confusion, followed by a new, more appropriate energy mix.
As an example, he points to the the reshuffling that took place after the oil shocks of the 70s and early 80s. Industrial processes and consumer habits became more efficient (for a while). Natural gas and nuclear edged oil out of the market for generating electricity.
So, that's what we're in for again, except this time it will be LNG terminals, more nuclear, etc.
He enumerates several other breakpoints, such as the converstion from wood to coal, from whale oil to kerosene, and from coal to oil.
He emphasizes conservation and efficiency, and advises business and consumers to make their processes energy efficient.
On the other hand, he does not discount Hubbert at all. And despite the cheery tone of the book, there are grim reminders scattered here and there that the scenario may not happen as envisioned.
FWIW, I think he's correct in the short term... unless there's a war in Iran or some other political-economic upset.
Long-term? Aye, there's the rub.