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How will Americans pay their 27k?

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How will Americans pay their 27k?

Postby rogerhb » Sun 12 Feb 2006, 11:50:43

U.S. NATIONAL DEBT CLOCK = $8,212,065,477,371.73

Each citizens share is $27,510.55

How will you pay your share?

Note: the US gov basically treats each tax payer as an underwriter to the tune of around $1.5million per head, so there is plenty more room to borrow.
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Re: How will Americans pay their 27k?

Postby Falconoffury » Sun 12 Feb 2006, 12:01:02

I have tried very hard in my life to avoid debt, so I don't understand why I should be responsible for a share of the government's debt. The government needs to pay down the debt through taxation but it doesn't want to do that. It knows that there is no tomorrow, so there is no point in getting ready for tomorrow.
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Re: How will Americans pay their 27k?

Postby gt1370a » Sun 12 Feb 2006, 12:11:38

I've already paid over twice that in federal taxes, and I've only been out of college for 4 years...
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Re: How will Americans pay their 27k?

Postby Kingcoal » Sun 12 Feb 2006, 14:37:10

It's all chicken and egg. If you've studied physics, you've heard of curved spacetime. The dollar exists in curved spacetime and the one controlling the curving is the Federal Reserve. Hint: curving = inflation.

The Federal Reserve authorizes the printing of fiat money, records the debt and then has the audacity to charge interest on it. Then the Treasury Dept takes this "authorized loan" and auctions it off, kind of like your home mortgage has probably traded hands. In the old days, the primary buyers of this debt were Americans. The amount of debt when adjusted as a percentage of GDP is not out of line with other countries. The "problem" these days is that the primary buyers of T-bills are foreigners.

You have to remember that our money system is not unlike an old amusement park ride ticket. The tickets you buy are needed to get on the rides. If you go home with unused tickets you keep them for the next time you go to the amusement park. They have value outside the park because they are the type of currency needed to get on the rides. You can even sell your extra tickets on eBay if you want.

The dollar is the ticket to play the financial markets which tend to resemble amusement park rides. As far as I know, every other country out there these is using fiat money. The world financial markets tend to be denominated in dollars because after WW2, most of the rest of the world used the dollar as a gold certificate because it was a gold certificate.

This brings me around to your personal share of the public debt. The debt is paid in dollars, which really are just ride tickets. If the economy (ride) stops moving, the tickets very quickly become worthless. So the most important thing of all is to keep the economy constantly growing. What exactly is growth? Now we are at the root question. Has the economy in the US actually produced any value over the past 30 or so years? By value I mean better ways of doing things, technological discoveries. Well, it's a fact of life that you can't schedule invention, so what you can do is just keep people busy until value is created. Right now, America is keeping millions of Chinese very busy. Americans are also very busy trying to beat inflation and make money.

What about dollar competition; the euro? It's like you are the owner of the amusement park and you watch as someone else starts building one across the street. If they don't take your tickets and their park is better than yours, you are in a quandary. You will have to upgrade and quick. You could start taking their tickets in exchange for them taking your tickets, but if they really are that much better, you are looking at quick decline.

Of course if their park isn't as good as yours, then they are just a thorn in your side, not a real, head to head competitor. I believe that this is the current situation that exists between the dollar and the euro. Remember that the euro, until further notice, is not pegged to a certain value of gold. The dollar used to be pegged to gold. One ounce of gold was worth exactly $35. That valuation was held constant. Making the dollar a real life, good as gold thing of value. Today it's just a ride ticket, but so is the Euro and every other currency I can think of. Of course if Islamic nations carry through with their plan for the gold Dinar for oil purchases, we have a big problem, but that is a different topic.

Europe's protection of their manufacturers slows their economy. How? In this case, Europe's workers, with four months vacation, a 35 hour (or less) work week and extremely high pay, are anything but a bargain. Chinese workers, with no benefits, extremely low pay and few work place regulations are a bargain. America has already made the choice between protectionism and dollar hegemony and for the most part, chosen the later, with good results. It hasn’t been easy for the American worker, who has had to be more versatile. Former steel workers now sell cars, work on cars, work in construction or just sit around and post on peakoil.com. Sure, a percentage of the formerly high (over) paid steel workers have a tough time selling their skills, but that is often a matter of personal choice. I know a lot of guys that fly around the country and work as millwrights, etc. There is always a demand for people willing to travel because most people don't want to do it – a personal choice. The short term pain experienced by displaced workers often puts them in a better situation. I know a guy that became a boat engine mechanic after Bethlehem Steel laid him off. He now makes good money and has a much more satisfying job.

I’m all for sending the entire consumer auto industry overseas to China. Not only will they love us for that, but we will export that much more inflation to them. If you really look closely at the US manufacturing sector, you see companies which are engaged in either high end markets, restricted markets (military, medical) and highly custom markets (systems integration, construction.) Vehicles will still be produced in the US; they will just fit into one of the slots mentioned above. In light of peak oil, I think it’s a good thing to get rid of your general auto production.

There you have it. The US exports its industries and moves up the food chain in doing so. Pressure is put upon its Citizens to improve themselves. The debt is paid down with inflated dollars by the people who are exporting to the US. That has been the US economy for the last 30 or so years. When there are no industries left to export or when the Chinese or whoever can no longer take on anymore industry, prices will rise and the world economy will slow. I say world economy because the US economy has become the world economy. If and when peak oil starts making a big dent, heavy industry, with it’s razor thin profit margins will suffer greatly. America has exported most of its low profit margin industry. The reason why high oil prices haven’t hit the US to a large degree is because of this.

The great danger is if and when China crashes. This will force the US to stop inflating and pay down its debt. This will mean punishingly high taxes on Americans. For that reason it is in the best interest of the US to keep the world economy moving and to keep weeding out loosing industries and exporting them.
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Re: How will Americans pay their 27k?

Postby gego » Sun 12 Feb 2006, 14:42:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Falconoffury', '.')...The government needs to pay down the debt through taxation but it doesn't want to do that.


My take is that in the short term the debt will continue to grow following an exponential growth curve as described by Bartlett. We are in the steep part of the curve so the growth will be large in absolute terms. Note also that the supply of money increases as the debt increases so that will drive up the price of everything as this increased money supply is used to bid on things.

In the long term, the debt cannot be actually paid. It will be eliminated either by default, by hyperinflation, or by the end of the federal government WITHOUT any successor government assuming the debts; default is the least likely.
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Re: How will Americans pay their 27k?

Postby rogerhb » Sun 12 Feb 2006, 15:13:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gego', 'I')t will be eliminated either by default, by hyperinflation,....


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Re: How will Americans pay their 27k?

Postby TorrKing » Sun 12 Feb 2006, 15:29:43

Some questions:

Why does the creditors not understand that they will never get their money back? Are they lending USA the money, since they know that if the US falls, world economy goes with it?

What common banks would do, if a person is not liquid (and there is no prospect of him ever becoming so): they would take the loss and declare him bankrupt (and stop lending him money). That seems most sensible. Any suggestions of why we don't do the same with the US?

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Re: How will Americans pay their 27k?

Postby MicroHydro » Sun 12 Feb 2006, 15:32:44

The Kiwi savings rate, household leverage, and current account deficits are even worse than US. Those $800,000 condos in Auckland and the lenders that financed them are as doomed as anyone in the US.
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Re: How will Americans pay their 27k?

Postby TommyJefferson » Sun 12 Feb 2006, 16:31:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kingcoal', 'i')t is in the best interest of the US to keep the world economy moving and to keep weeding out loosing industries and exporting them.


Interesting thesis Kingcoal. I never thought of it that way.
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Re: How will Americans pay their 27k?

Postby jaws » Sun 12 Feb 2006, 17:51:11

It's actually a lot more than 27k since the majority of Americans are either too young or too old to work, or they work for the government (thus consume resources instead of producing them).

How will it be paid back? When did a country ever pay back its national debt?
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Re: How will Americans pay their 27k?

Postby cube » Sun 12 Feb 2006, 20:05:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jaws', 'W')hen did a country ever pay back its national debt?
When it gets bankrupted and must pay back not in the form of paper money but instead hard assets like :land, natural resources, factories, ect...

This happens all the time to resource rich but poorly managed 3rd world nations that borrow more then they can afford. There's usually a "damage clause" in the contract that basically says if you don't repay your loans then you must surrender your natural resource for below market value.

To add insult to injury, it's not uncommon for these loans to be taken out by dictators who got into power with the help of the USA.....Soddom Insane being a prime egg-sam-apple.

I call that Cube's Law of the crouching hand, hidden fist theory of "free trade". :roll:
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Re: How will Americans pay their 27k?

Postby frankthetank » Sun 12 Feb 2006, 22:55:36

I think its simple...it never will get paid off! :)

We'll just file chapter 7 or 11 :)
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Re: How will Americans pay their 27k?

Postby Tyler_JC » Sun 12 Feb 2006, 23:32:29

Wait a second, I only owe 27k?

This must be my lucky day!

I would gladly take that 27,000 under my name if it meant my taxes would decrease by 22% (the current cost of the interest on the national debt as a % of Gov. spending).

I could probably manage to pay off that debt in a few years and not have to worry about it.

But I know that my share is not 27,000. It's probably closer to 127,000. Don't forget, only 2/3 of Americans work. And many of those people work for low wages. The top 20% of income earners will have to pay for a far larger % of the national debt than the bottom 80%.

The top 20% pay virtually all of the federal income taxes...but they also earn like half of all of the income. So I suppose it balances out somehow.
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Re: How will Americans pay their 27k?

Postby pup55 » Mon 13 Feb 2006, 10:45:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')ach citizens share is $27,510.55


I will gladly pay the $104K for my family of four if I can get some assurance that this would be the end of it.

But even if "they" did rattle the tin cup and collect the money to pay it all off, the current crew would just turn around and start over and run it up again.
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Re: How will Americans pay their 27k?

Postby smallpoxgirl » Mon 13 Feb 2006, 10:50:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rogerhb', 'E')ach citizens share is $27,510.55

How will you pay your share?

Note: the US gov basically treats each tax payer as an underwriter to the tune of around $1.5million per head, so there is plenty more room to borrow.


Screw that. I don't get any say in what this government does, why would I want to float their loans. They may extort money out of my paycheck every month, but I'll be darned if I'm assuming responsibility for their debts.
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Re: How will Americans pay their 27k?

Postby Doly » Mon 13 Feb 2006, 11:20:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smallpoxgirl', 'T')hey may extort money out of my paycheck every month, but I'll be darned if I'm assuming responsibility for their debts.


On the other hand, "their" debt might be paying for stuff that YOU use.
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Re: How will Americans pay their 27k?

Postby smallpoxgirl » Mon 13 Feb 2006, 11:31:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', 'O')n the other hand, "their" debt might be paying for stuff that YOU use.


Such as?

Only example of that I can think of is roads which is tiny portion of that debt. I think I have more than paid for my usage of roads by now.

If somebody wants to install toll booths, charge me for my actual road usage, and stop charging me income taxes, that's a-ok by me.

The truth is that debt is mostly so Reagan and the Bushes could strut around the world bullying people. I say sell off the Bush Ranch, the Reagan Library, and the assets of anyone with those stupid yellow "I support our troops ribbons". Use the proceeds to pay down the debt. Write the rest off as uncollectable.
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Re: How will Americans pay their 27k?

Postby Doly » Mon 13 Feb 2006, 11:36:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smallpoxgirl', '
')Such as?


Read the budgets. See if any of the items applies to you.
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Re: How will Americans pay their 27k?

Postby smallpoxgirl » Mon 13 Feb 2006, 11:57:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', 'R')ead the budgets. See if any of the items applies to you.


Well...not really. Lots of them apply to controlling, policing, and spying on me, and extorting money from me. You're going to have a hard time convincing me that is a benefit I should be paying for. As a doctor, I do end up getting some money from medicare and medicaid. I think that if people suddenly had 30-40% more income, they probably wouldn't have a hard time paying for their own care and setting up a charity care system that would work a heck of a lot better than those two.

So tell me. What am I overlooking. What have they done for me lately?
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Re: How will Americans pay their 27k?

Postby Falconoffury » Mon 13 Feb 2006, 12:12:57

The USA government wants a sudden and quick crash rather than a long, transitional crash. They just keep pushing more economic growth and more inflation, rather than allowing the dollar to deflate slowly.
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