[dub_scratch]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TommyJefferson', '
')In the US and I'm sure Austrailia we have too much Kunstler-esqe personal vehicle infastructure to simply "stop driving" and abandon it. There are huge opportunities in replacing our current vehicle fleet with more efficient vehicles.

The car life-cycle is long, but the demand will be huge. It's already happening. An investor is building a 2-million gallon/year biodiesel plant near me. It will convert waste from wood products industry (of which we have prodigious amounts around here).

[TommyJefferson]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dub_scratch', 'I')f you go out and look at the current car fleet you see today, you are looking at the car fleet of the future.

[KrellEnergySource]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('johnmarkos', 'A')lthough I voted for "great demand destruction," I do think that machine powered transport will continue in some form for most people.

[emersonbiggins]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KrellEnergySource', 'B')ut how will the road and bridge infrastructure be maintained? That's another energy intensive aspect of the current transportation system.

Even before I was blissfully unaware of the fact that oil production would decline in my own lifetime, I'd already noticed that there's a lot of cracked concrete and potholes out there. I've wondered how our children would pay to repair the infrastructure we've built, and didn't see how they could. Now I'm sure they won't.

[dub_scratch]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KrellEnergySource', 'B')ut how will the road and bridge infrastructure be maintained? That's another energy intensive aspect of the current transportation system.

[emersonbiggins]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dub_scratch', 'P')erhaps lanes will have to be closed as they fall into disrepair. I imagine there will someday be a patchwork of crumbling lanes and detours that will constitute the remaining national road network.

[dub_scratch]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dub_scratch', 'P')erhaps lanes will have to be closed as they fall into disrepair. I imagine there will someday be a patchwork of crumbling lanes and detours that will constitute the remaining national road network.

[emersonbiggins]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dub_scratch', 'T')he toll concept is very plausible when you consider that less gasoline will be purchased, which means that less revenue is collected from motor fuel surcharges (I prefer not to call it a "gas tax" because taxes are not suppose to cover the costs of the item that is taxed). There will have to be some other revenue stream and highway tolls will be the most logical. And I don't think it will be politically unpopular either since much of the populous won't be driving. It could be far more unpopular to drain slim public funds for a deteriorating system that will only serve a few.

[dub_scratch]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', 'T')oday, we have over 42,000 miles of interstate highway and multiples of that in paved national, state and county roads. And all those have life cycles (@current usage levels) of *at most* 30-40 years, often times much less. Even if we manage to convert all of our auto fleet to EV (!), we'll still need cheap petroleum to keep the infrastructure intact, to say nothing of expansion. The highway system is looking more like a thinly-disguised ponzi scheme these days...

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', '.')...Even if we manage to convert all of our auto fleet to EV (!), we'll still need cheap petroleum to keep the infrastructure intact, to say nothing of expansion....

[eric_b]

dub_scratch & emersonbiggins,

You raise some excellent and often overlooked points regarding the
road infrastructure.

Most people are so fixated on how they are going to afford gas or
clinging to our auto-orientated way of life they overlook the enormous
costs involved in keeping the roads, highways and interstates functioning,
much less expanding them. Enormous costs here.

There's a joke where I live: There are two seasons in Wisconsin: Winter,
and road construction. Point being the roadways are not a static thing,
and require constant maintainance. And there's a lot of pork and cronyism
when it comes to contracting out this work.

Where I live your typical well trafficked blacktop road will require resurfacing
after 10 years, and most definitely after 20.

Monte also raised this point when evaluating the nations (US) overall
infrastructure, which is in decline (not sure where that thread went).

It's also noteworthy that all the major interstate projects were undertaken
at a time when oil was still dirt cheap. Before the US had peaked.

Your observations add to the evidence for a very rapid collapse of our
auto culture post PO.

[emersonbiggins]

I know we're only talking about road infrastructure here, but as I understand it, much of the nation's utility infrastructure is at least as oil-dependent as our road system. Many municipal sewer systems are in excess of 100 years old, well beyond the intended life span of such systems. The current policy has been 'replace as you go,' with varying amounts of success, but even this will be difficult as expenditures continue to mount. Also, many dams and levees are well beyond their intended life spans, with hundreds of millions of dollars of property and lives at risk of being wiped out (NOLA, anyone?) Peak oil may not be the root cause of the upcoming fall of the American empire, but it will definitely exacerbate many already challenging situations.

[emersonbiggins]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', '.')...Even if we manage to convert all of our auto fleet to EV (!), we'll still need cheap petroleum to keep the infrastructure intact, to say nothing of expansion....

[The_Toecutter]

I don't think private cars will leave immediately, either. However, we will se significantly reduced use, and in America, maybe riots considering the mass transit was bought by the oil and auto industries in the 40s and torn down. For people with commutes over 15 miles, biking really begins to get impractical and time intensive, although with the possibility of significantly less cars on the road it may not be so bad.

The only way the auto industry has any chance of survival is by producing electric and biodiesel vehicles. Electrics with 200+ mile ranges can be done with today's technology, but they won't be affordable unless someone is mass producing them. But since electrics are maintenance free and make less profit than gas vehicles as a result, the market rejected them, despite consumer demand for such a product.

Personally, I hope the auto industry dies so that smaller, less centralized enterprises can take them over and produce vehicles that aren't so oil intensive... In the mean time, we could really use a ramping up of mass transit in the cities and suburbs, but the auto industry consistently lobbies againast such measures. They don't want car use to drop or car use to become less wasteful, as that means less revenue.

If there is a government bailout, I hope the bureaucrats that support it are shot for again wasting our tax dollars on more unconstitutional corporate welfare. The buyback program, or worse, a blatant bailing out of industry, would be a waste of precious time and resources that we need to prevent a peak oil scenario from degrading into a total collapse.

Adoption of alternative fuels and EVs, while we still have the resources, can't hurt either, provided it's done in a sensible manner. The bottom line is that car use needs to become an option, not a necessity within America, and the cars that are used need to be independent from oil.

Should we keep using all available oil even on the downslope, the conflicts and problems will keep getting worse. We need to begin to reduce consumption before production declines, and there exists the tech level to do so without declining living standards.

But the governments and major corporations refuse to allow it to happen. They want growth and more resource consumption, not contraction and increased efficiency. We'll be in a very sorry state if Americans cannot afford to drive and would find it more economical to stay home than to work. Transportation is this country's lifeblood by intentionally inefficient design. Cut the oil off with no viable alternatives to the car and/or significant numbers of oil fuel independent cars in place, and things will get very ugly fast. Europe at least has a reasonable amount of alternatives to the car in place in their urban areas, but they too could suffer the same fate, at perhaps $25/gallon...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hat's the problem I'm having.

Last September my 1993 Mazda pick-up bit the dust after 189,000 miles.

I went shopping for another small, fuel-efficient truck. Guess what? They don't make them anymore!!!

Nissan, Toyota, Ford, Chevy, Mitsubishi, Dodge, ...all had nothing to offere but ballooned-up junk with alunimum cylinders getting 19mpg.

Finding a NON-4x4 or NON-V6 truck was an exercise in futility. The slimey salesmen questioned both my sanity and masculinity when I inquired about a smaller, more fuel efficent truck.

I REFUSE to drive one of those gashogs into the P.O. future for the next 15 years. (I extract maximum value from my vehicles by running them out.)

I said F.U. all, and didn't buy a truck. I began riding my motorcycle to work. I'm banking what would have been my car payment each month and hoping for a MASSIVE recession, with huge defaults on housing and autos. I'll swoop in and buy that stuff for pennies on the dollar.

I bought my 3B/2B brick home as a repossesion from the Resolution Trust Corporation after the S&L scandals of the 80's for pennies on the dollar. I hope to do the same again soon.

I'll keep riding my bike until the manufacturers offer fuel-efficient vehicles, then maybe I'll buy one.

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('The_Toecutter', '.')...The only way the auto industry has any chance of survival is by producing electric and biodiesel vehicles....

[The_Toecutter]

Of course, that assumes fuel will be available and we'll have the luxury of still buying feul at gas stations. If the 70s have taught us anything, don't count on it.The shortfall in the 70s was small compared to what a 2% decline would bring. Peak oil, unlike the 70s will be chronic and permanent. We might see a return of WWII style rationing, but that by no means would provide sufficient fuel for people to go about their day to day business, unless their cars got over 100 mpg. Very difficult to get even 80 mpg in a passenger car capable of seating 4 without going to diesel, no matter how good your aerodynamics. Once you go to diesel, congratz, you've now opened up the possibility of biodiesel...

With an aerodynamic body, transmission, LRR tires, ect. a 55 horsepower car will get similar fuel economy to a 155 horsepower car. The difference might be about 15-20%.

The biggest low hanging fruit is not really a more efficient and smaller engine, but instead aerodynamics, low rolling resistance tires, and a composite body, aerodynamics having the largest effects.

A car with a .35 coefficient of drag and 23 square foot frontal area with 3,200 poundas curb weight might get 27 mpg with a 160 horsepower V6. Cut the drag coefficient to .20 while keeping the same weight and frontal area, and the car might return 40-45 mpg. Keep the drag coefficient at .35 and use composites to cut the weight by about 1,000 pounds, and it might return 30-32 mpg. Don't touch weight or aerodynamics and use LRR tires, about 28-29 mpg. Do none of those things but swap in a 55 horsepower engine, and you might only see 35 mpg, less than a Geo Metro(which is much lighter at about 1,800 pounds with a similarly powerful engine, getting on the order of 40-45 mpg). Do all three, aerodynamics, LRR tires, and composite bodies and keep the 160 horsepower V6, and you could see perhaps 50-55 mpg. Use the 55 horsepower engine while doing all of those things, and perhaps 60-65 mpg, on par with a Honda Insight or Toyota Prius, but they use an electric motor to up the horsepower while slightly aiding fuel efficiency throuh regen braking and such.

Switching to a diesel of equivalent power will see about a 30-40% fuel economy improvement, but you also must account for more energy stored in diesel than gasoline. Diesel plus drag reduction is how we will get our 80-100 mpg midsize, sports, and luxury cars with high acceleration performance. Open up the diesel pandora's box in America, and consumers will see biodiesel as an option. Stick with gasoline, and people won't be able to afford to drive, killing the American auto industry with 4-person gas cars mostly unable to exceed 80 mpg or so with the weakest of engines, lightest of weights, and most clean aerodynamics. Oops.

I don't think slow, lacklustre cars will sell, even in a fuel crisis. This is why Japan did so well in the 70s and 80s, and America floundered. Even america's efficient cars, like the Chevat, were crap and the Japanese outsold them. Likewise, post peak, the diesels would be faster, cheaper, more fuel efficient, and larger, as would the electrics, using off the shelf technology that we could use today. The gas IC engine is simply too inefficient.

Further continuing that status quo of fossil fuel derived transportation would also garuntee global warming, future oil wars, and maybe bring upon a dieoff due to reduced oil for food. Of course, the major industries and the governments would rahter keep the status quo, I just don't think they would be able to keep it up entirely for 50 years. By that time, the oil will be gone, and probably not enough to switch to electrics and such. I don't think we'll have enough oil to make a transition 5 years from now, let alone 50!

[eastbay]

TJ,

You ain't the only one... in September of '04 went I went shopping for a small pick up and you're right. Here in the US there isn't one. I must have blinked and the Tacoma became a large truck. I took a chance and became truckless for the first time in years buying an inexpensive 45 mpg small car instead.

But, like you, I put the most miles on my trusty 50 mpg motorcycle. But when I ride home at 2 or 3am I rarely see another motorcycle so we are still rare birds indeed.

[Revi]

I agree with you Tommy Jefferson! I have a 97 Ford Ranger that has 2 wheel drive, four cylinders and an extra cab. Gets over 25 mpg. Very hard to find. I kinda want to replace it since this may be the last vehicle I ever own, but have a hard time finding anything made after that time that gets decent gas mileage. The Tacomas have turned into monsters and the Ranger has 6 cylinders in the extra cab models. What alternative is there? Lately I'm thinking of getting a trailer so I can haul wood and do pickup things and get a Rav 4 or or something that gets great mileage and has 4 wheel drive. I love small pickups, but they just aren't making them like they used to! If they made a vehicle I wanted, I'd buy it! There must be lots of people like us out there.

[The_Toecutter]

The small truck market is like the electric car market.

It is very sizable and outright ignored. Industry would rather steer you towards vehicles with much higher profit margins, like SUVs and full size trucks built on economy car chassis. I don't expect the automakers to change their tune anytime in the near future, as if they go bankrupt, they'll simply ask the government for handouts to stay afloat courtesy of Joe Taxpayer, all the while ignoring what consumers want trying instead to force them into certain vehicles.

[Revi]

What I would really like to buy is a small diesel pickup like they made in the 80's. They made a Ranger and VW made a little diesel that went about 45 miles on a gallon. I have a friend who works for the USDA who said that if they institute rationing they may allow farms to keep some diesel around. We have a small farm and a pickup is certainly necessary for farm work.

Last night on 60 minutes the Governor of Montana, Schneider was talking about making diesel out of coal. I was thinking that there may be some diesel around for quite a while for agriculture. Who knows? It's hard to know what to do. I certainly don't want one of those monster diesel pickups, but maybe if the price was right...