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THE Private transportation after PO Thread (merged)

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

How to eliminate the private automobile

Poll ended at Wed 23 Nov 2005, 12:44:14

Better public transit! That will draw people out of their cars.
8
No votes
The humble bicycle -- the most efficient way to get around.
5
No votes
A new technology that hasn't been invented yet.
1
No votes
Market forces will take care of it.
4
No votes
Better urban planning and tax penalties/incentives.
12
No votes
We should not eliminate the private automobile. Cars are good.
7
No votes
 
Total votes : 37

Re: Personal Transportation Solution ?

Unread postby Mark_i » Sat 14 Jan 2006, 14:29:13

Extreme-Carpooling in Malaysia

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Re: Transportation - PO

Unread postby cube » Sat 14 Jan 2006, 18:46:38

Looks like a greenie's wet dream.

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Unfortunately 2/3 rds of American adults are obese so the chances that Velomobiles will be the prefured mode of transport in the future is how should I say this...rather slim! :-D

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Anyways keep the ideas coming...I learned a new word today...."Velomobile".

This is for the Star Wars fans: Badonkadonk Land Cruiser/Tank
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Re: Transportation - PO

Unread postby ubercynicmeister » Sat 14 Jan 2006, 20:16:52

Assuming that money becomes no object, then the costs associated with the relative transportation modes is as follows:

Rail, through undulating country, no big hills, no major watercourses: Australian $3 to $5 million per kilometre.

Freeways through the same type of country: Aus$25 million per kilometre.

Magnalev is nice, but it's costs are stated as being somewhat higher then freeways - I'm told that the costs may go as high as Aus$100 million per km, but it should be remembered, that that cost is the "top end" of things.

Modern trains can travel at around 200 km/h without too much expenditure. To travel the 4,700 km from one side of the US to the other (that's rail-route presently established) at 200 km/h gives an overall time for the trip as being 23 hours, 30 mins.

Note well: the reason the present service is so damn slack is simply because people don't use it enough. People don't use it enough because the service is so darn slack.

If one were to raise the train's speed to (say) 300 km/ h, the time taken goes down to 15 hours, 40 mins, which is actually a reasonable amount of time. It's about as long as the average person spends in holding patterns over air-ports, anyway.

And one can put beds on trains, too, at minimal extra cost. A bus comes in at about Aus$125,000 each. A train's carriage comes in at about Aus$400,000 each, and the locomotive costs about Aus$5.2 million each.

The bus carries about 70 persons, the train carriage (double-deck) carries about 180, and one can take surf-boards, bicycles, LOTSA bulk luggage, etc on a train...I dunno if I'd wanna do that with a coach!
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Re: Personal Transportation Solution ?

Unread postby Revi » Sun 15 Jan 2006, 14:32:27

I took my bike out for a spin because we had a January thaw here. Really fun! I look forward to spring when I can use the electric bike again. It has several advantages. The battery can be stored inside, so it doesn't drain all its energy in the cold. It's a nickel metal hydride battery, so it doesn't have to be checked or anything. The bike is a great way to get around on a nice day, and makes all errands an adventure. The battery could be charged with a small solar setup. You can affix baskets or even a trailer to get groceries, etc. It really feels like the transportation of the future, and it augments your present modes of transport. (and it's an awfully fun toy)
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Re: Transportation - PO

Unread postby Wildwell » Sun 15 Jan 2006, 14:42:44

In the UK right now there’s a group commissioned by the Department for Transport to look at long term transportation needs. In the magic mix of solutions they are looking at airport expansion, new toll roads, new high speed railways.

There are three options for the high speed railway:

1. Maglev. A 300mph line, along I’m not sure it will run into cities, so I see little point if you are trying to compete with planes.

2. French/German convention high speed 200mph 25kv AC electrified line, use conventional tracks into cities.

3. And the latest glint in the eye…150mph Gas turbine running on vast amounts of aviation fuel, thus to avoid the expense of electrification. Has anyone told them about the price shocks?

THE government’s chief transport adviser, Sir Rod Eddington, favours plans for a new high-speed rail link that could see jet-propelled trains ferrying passengers between London and Scotland in record times.
The new trains would eschew conventional power sources and would instead be fired-up by a jet engine similar to those used in aircraft.

A prototype, capable of travelling at 150mph, has been built in north America but manufacturers believe that, in the right conditions, it could achieve a much higher top speed.

The jet train plan — which some industry experts have dubbed “Eddington’s Rocket” — would cut journey times between London and cities such as Birmingham, Manchester and Edinburgh.

Virgin Pendolinos, operating at 125mph, are currently the fastest trains running up and down the country.

Eddington, the former boss of British Airways, is considering a new north-south high-speed link as part of a long-term review of Britain’s transport needs.

Tasked with looking beyond 2015, he will present his findings directly to Gordon Brown, the chancellor, and Alistair Darling, the transport secretary, this summer.

Eddington has previously claimed that fast trains would be preferable to many domestic flights. “Everyone should be taking the train,” he said.
“People wouldn’t need to fly between London and Manchester if the service was faster.”

With passenger journeys forecast to rise by 28% in the next decade, Darling is keen to free up capacity on existing tracks. The east coast main line from London to Edinburgh, for example, is already struggling to accommodate extra services.

Eddington believes a new high-speed link may provide a solution to this congestion and has discussed its feasibility with John Armitt, chief executive of Network Rail.

He has also consulted officials at Bombardier, the Canadian maker of the jet train, and at Ultraspeed, a company that is proposing a magnetic levitation — or maglev — system for Britain. Ultraspeed claims its train could reach speeds of 311mph.

A team of experts at Network Rail are now weighing up the merits of the competing technologies, as well as conventional high-speed trains such as the TGV in France, which travels at speeds of up to 186mph.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/newspaper/ ... _2,00.html

Meanwhile on the other side of the pond..

ere we go again. President Bush puts highly unqualified political supporters in charge of a vital public service, and Americans pay the price.

But this time it isn't the Federal Emergency Management Agency. It's our national passenger railroad - Amtrak.

Amtrak's directors, appointed by the Bush administration based on cronyism, not competence, are shirking their responsibilities and dismantling - through outsourcing and privatization schemes - the very rail company they are charged with strengthening. If we don't stop this runaway train, millions of passengers will lose vital rail service along the Northeast Corridor and across America.

Defying the wishes of a bipartisan Congress, Amtrak board members are pushing a disastrous "reorganization" plan that would dismantle the rail carrier, abandon passengers, dump billions of dollars in costs onto Maryland and other states and allow profit-driven speculators to cherry-pick Amtrak's most prized assets. Other than the White House and its handpicked Amtrak board, few are for this plan.

The Bush administration wants to eliminate federal funding for Amtrak, and the Amtrak board of directors wants to separate the Northeast Corridor from the rest of the network and open the system up to competition/privatization.

The current board chairman, David M. Laney, a Texas attorney, sits at the helm of Amtrak after raising more than $100,000 for the Bush-Cheney campaign.

Another board member's qualification to serve as fiduciary for a multibillion-dollar passenger railroad is his experience as the CEO of Kmart and the Museum Co., both of which ended up in bankruptcy. Undoubtedly, Floyd Hall's $360,000 in "soft money" contributions to the Bush-Cheney machine since 2000 did not hurt, either.

The third private-sector member, Bush-booster Enrique Sosa, told Democratic Sen. Frank R. Lautenberg of New Jersey in June 2004 that he had never ridden on an Amtrak train before his appointment.

Meanwhile, the board has operated without a quorum for several years, casting grave doubt on the legitimacy, if not the legality, of its actions, the most recent of which was the firing of CEO David L. Gunn, a 40-year rail professional. We had strong differences with Mr. Gunn's labor-management practices, but he has forgotten more about passenger rail than the three private-sector Amtrak board members combined have ever known. Mr. Gunn was fired because he refused to take a blood oath to carry out the "kill Amtrak from within" strategy.

Key Republicans are also fed up. House Railroads Subcommittee Chairman Steven C. LaTourette of Ohio recently called the situation "pathetic" and "such a mess that I have heard it said that you couldn't think up a hypothetical case this loony if you tried."

This would be laughable if the travel needs of 25 million passengers (including 2 million Marylanders), the jobs of 20,000 dedicated Amtrak employees (including 2,600 Marylanders) and the health of our transportation system were not at risk.

Cronyism is leading Amtrak over a cliff. The White House and its Amtrak board want to emulate the British rail privatization debacle. That catastrophe caused years of rampant delays, steep fare increases, higher accident and injury rates, and apoplectic passengers. The British government had to end this half-baked scheme and reportedly could face a $40 billion tab - $10 billion more than we've spent on Amtrak in 35 years - to clean up the mess.

http://www.commondreams.org/views05/1215-33.htm
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Re: Transportation - PO

Unread postby cube » Mon 16 Jan 2006, 02:56:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Wildwell', '.')...
The Bush administration wants to eliminate federal funding for Amtrak, and the Amtrak board of directors wants to separate the Northeast Corridor from the rest of the network and open the system up to competition/privatization.
....
The northeast corridor is Amtrak's most successful corridor. (D.C. to Boston) It actually produces a profit! There is one other corridor that also makes money. (Texas to Oklahoma) All other Amtrak routes are money lossers if I'm not mistaken.

Therefore if the system were to actually become privatized those would be the only 2 routes to survive. here's an interesting link that shows the most profitable/ or least profitable Amtrak routes:

http://search.csmonitor.com/specials/amtrak/lines.html

As for Britain's options for future transport, I'd put the maglev option as the least likely to happen. There are really only 2 maglev systems worth mentioning:
1) German
2) Japanese
There's a German maglev train in Shanghai right now but it's such a financial disaster it's going to be awhile before some other country wants to take such a financial risk. As for the Japanese design it's still in the experimental stage.
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Re: Transportation - PO

Unread postby Starvid » Mon 16 Jan 2006, 10:47:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '1'). Maglev. A 300mph line, along I’m not sure it will run into cities, so I see little point if you are trying to compete with planes.

Too expensive by a long shot.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '2'). French/German convention high speed 200mph 25kv AC electrified line, use conventional tracks into cities.

The perfect choice.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '3'). And the latest glint in the eye…150mph Gas turbine running on vast amounts of aviation fuel, thus to avoid the expense of electrification. Has anyone told them about the price shocks?

Are they fucking crazy?
Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
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Driving private cars after PO - car industry future post PO?

Unread postby sch_peakoiler » Wed 25 Jan 2006, 17:05:27

there were some discussions on car industry here before but they were limited to GM and Ford. I wanted to conduct this small poll on private vehicles and discuss the future of the car industrie in general.

So what is your opinion about the future of the car industry in general?
How do you see the situation with driving private vehicles post PO--Poll ended at 24 Feb 2006, 15:05

With no changes - technology will fix everything, so that we continue as normal 3 6%
A slight demand destruction - less driving to movies, to mcDrive, more carpooling 16 30%
A great demand destruction -nobody driving except for the ultra rich 28 52% Government forbidding private cars trying to save enough fuel for transport, emergency and governmental purposes 7 13%
Total votes : 54
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Re: Driving private cars after PO - car industry future post

Unread postby NeoPeasant » Wed 25 Jan 2006, 17:36:19

After the auto industry collapses, the existing fleet of gasoline and diesel vehicles will be nursed along for years beyond their life expectancies and will be driven only when necessary. Think of all the 1950-something american cars still operating in Cuba.

There will be no replacement technology personal autos for the masses. The available energy sources will be used to maintain mass transit, farming, potable water systems, sanitation systems, home heating, and medical care. When we are struggling to supply adequate energy to keep people alive, there will be little tolerance for the waste of personal transport.
The battle to preserve our lifestyle has already been lost. The battle to preserve our lives is just beginning.
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Re: Driving private cars after PO - car industry future post

Unread postby NeoPeasant » Wed 25 Jan 2006, 17:40:11

After the auto industry collapses, the existing fleet of gasoline and diesel vehicles will be nursed along for years beyond their life expectancies and will be driven only when necessary. Think of all the 1950-something american cars still operating in Cuba.

There will be no replacement technology personal autos for the masses. The available energy sources will be used to maintain mass transit, farming, potable water systems, sanitation systems, home heating, and medical care. When we are struggling to supply adequate energy to keep people alive, there will be little tolerance for the waste of personal transport.
The battle to preserve our lifestyle has already been lost. The battle to preserve our lives is just beginning.
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Re: Driving private cars after PO - car industry future post

Unread postby sch_peakoiler » Wed 25 Jan 2006, 17:54:57

NeoPeasant,

when do you see the car industry collapse, long after PO (10 years or something), or on a rather short notice, because of collapsing stocks due to investors removing money.

Private question - what to you advise to those working in car industry now? a friend of mine works in a big well known car company.
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Re: Driving private cars after PO - car industry future post

Unread postby dub_scratch » Wed 25 Jan 2006, 17:59:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sch_peakoiler', 't')here were some discussions on car industry here before but they were limited to GM and Ford. I wanted to conduct this small poll on private vehicles and discuss the future of the car industrie in general.

So what is your opinion about the future of the car industry in general?


The future of the car industry is of substantial contraction within a very sort time into the energy crisis. Simply put, there are too many cars in the US, which is the auto industries bread & butter. These cars have long replacement cycles. Economic dislocation, which is almost guaranteed to occur during oil shortage, is not a time to buy a new car. Plus, escalating energy prices will be reflected in commodities and manufacturing of new cars. This will be a time when the market for new cars drops out while prices increase. The showrooms will be empty of customers.

Some incorrectly think that because our current car fleet is so energy inefficient that that will spur people to get rid of their SUVs and buy a new high MPG or alt car. Yet in the face of oil shortages the shift to fuel efficiency in cars will be a non-starter. You cannot instantly turn a few screws and increase car fleet efficiency. This will mean that people will have to adjust to high gasoline prices by substantially curtailing their driving. Because of the economic downturn I just noted, much of that curtailment will come naturally. Driving curtailment will increase the life of the current car fleet which will give people less of a reason to buy a new high MPG car.

Bottom line: we are not going to remain a nation of drivers. The auto industry will contract substantially within a few years after global declines take place. This is a good thing because oil is too valuable to burn in single occupied cars.
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Re: Driving private cars after PO - car industry future post

Unread postby SHiFTY » Wed 25 Jan 2006, 18:00:17

Ever seen a photo of a busy street in Bankok, Vietnam, anywhere like that- scooters and motorcycles are king.

Invest in a scooter/small bike business, at 70-140 MPG they will be around for a long time.

Hell they're still making the original Honda C-50 (or C-90) as it is incredibly reliable and sips fuel. 1/2 gallon a week?
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Re: Driving private cars after PO - car industry future post

Unread postby dub_scratch » Wed 25 Jan 2006, 18:20:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sch_peakoiler', '
')Private question - what to you advise to those working in car industry now? a friend of mine works in a big well known car company.


I'd like to answer this, if I may.

How about farm laborers? There may be allot of positions opening for that...

No just kidding. There could be allot of useful vocational realignment in fixing things. People with mechanical skills in the auto industry can find employment in fixing old equipment, including old cars that will be driven for a long time. Also we could see an effort in building alternative energy systems. I wonder if a car factory can be converted into a wind turbine factory. That would be a very positive thing to see happen.

I certainly hope the government does not try to save the auto industry with a car buyback program or some other car subsidy scheme. That will divert labor and resources from the important task ahead.
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Re: Driving private cars after PO - car industry future post

Unread postby RacerJace » Wed 25 Jan 2006, 19:16:38

I've been working in the auto industry for about 15 years now. I'm an engineer and presently an R&D Manager in a large automotive supplier company. I've been predominantly in powertrain systems, fuel handling, fuel cells and presently in interiors.

As far as contraction of the industry goes... it's already happening at an alarming rate. The US is the most obvious since it has the most capital tied up in large uneconomical SUVs and trucks. Germany is starting to feel the pinch and the UK's auto industry has almost completely shrivelled up already. Here in Australia it's devastating the local manufacturers. Mitsubishi has been suffering financial woes over the last five years and is on the verge of shut down. They had one last chance with the release of their 380, a mid-large size passenger car with 12-14 litres/100 km efficiency. The new model release generated some interest but in only a few short months their sales have followed the same trend as Holden (GM) and Ford's large passenger car sales... down by nearly 25% in 2005. Interestingly the overall sales of cars when up by 5%. Small imported cars are kicking butt. Toyota Corolla was the top selling car in Australia in 2005, for the first time ever it out sold the larger locally built Holden Commodore and Ford Falcon.

I am feverishly looking at the options of a business importing small electric cars for urban commuting. I have a number of acquaintances, friends, and family who are interested in backing me. A follow on business will be in selling electric conversion kits for small cars. I think it is likely that the remains of the big automotive companies will flee to China (as has the company I work for) and what's left in Australia will continue to shrink. In a few years I believe there will be a few small new localised automotive makers attempting to start up with electric and or hybrid vehicles. I intend to be the founder of one.. that is if we manage to stay on a plateau for another ten years or so before a total economic crash happens.

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Re: Driving private cars after PO - car industry future post

Unread postby johnmarkos » Mon 13 Feb 2006, 00:35:33

Although I voted for "great demand destruction," I do think that machine powered transport will continue in some form for most people.

Here's what I've been imagining lately: modular transportation. I was thinking about the fact that unless you're packing up the family and heading cross country, you are only using a tiny fraction of your car's capabilities. So why not only take what you need? What's required is some way of snapping in power, seating, and cargo modules as we need them. Also, it would be nice if you could vary things like number of wheels and power source (so that your bicycle could snap into your "car").

Anyway, it's likely that only the wealthy would keep their cars (in the 20th century sense of the word) around simply because there's no need. Sure, most people could snap enough modules together to get a vehicle with the weight of a car -- but there would almost never be a need to do so.

Here's an example of an early "seating/cargo module". It can attach to a bicycle or a walking, running, or skiing human. Of course, none of these power sources are mechanized: imagine modules that would permit motors safely.
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Re: Driving private cars after PO - car industry future post

Unread postby ChicknLittle » Mon 13 Feb 2006, 01:05:04

There needs to be another option on the poll... "Personal transportation continues to be an option using dramatically smaller/lighter vehicles."
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Re: Driving private cars after PO - car industry future post

Unread postby TommyJefferson » Mon 13 Feb 2006, 08:26:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RacerJace', 'I')n a few years I believe there will be a few small new localised automotive makers attempting to start up with electric and or hybrid vehicles.


That's the ticket.

In the US and I'm sure Austrailia we have too much Kunstler-esqe personal vehicle infastructure to simply "stop driving" and abandon it. There are huge opportunities in replacing our current vehicle fleet with more efficient vehicles.

The car life-cycle is long, but the demand will be huge. It's already happening. An investor is building a 2-million gallon/year biodiesel plant near me. It will convert waste from wood products industry (of which we have prodigious amounts around here).

I ride a luxurious motorcycle with heated hand-grips and a 250 mile fuel tank range that can sustain 100mph for hours on end. It gets 50mpg. For urban commuting I could easily transition to a Vespa scooter.

There is huge room for improvement in fuel economy in all personal transport vehicles.

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http://www.businessweek.com/autos/conte ... 626644.htm
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Re: Driving private cars after PO - car industry future post

Unread postby Doly » Mon 13 Feb 2006, 08:34:20

I think there will be moderate demand destruction at the beginning, but it will increase to the point that only rich people will have a private car. When I say rich people, I don't mean only the ultra rich, but certainly having a car will be a status symbol that most people won't be able to afford, like today could be things like owning a holiday home, having a home cinema, or going quarterly in a shopping trip to New York when you live in Europe.
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Re: Driving private cars after PO - car industry future post

Unread postby rogerhb » Mon 13 Feb 2006, 08:53:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', 'I') think there will be moderate demand destruction


The US demanding the destruction in Iran as a reponse to Iran want the destruction of Israel in response to Israel wanting the destruction in Iran .....


That doesn't sound very moderate, and it also sounds rather 'now'.
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