[gt1370a]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '"')intangible investments" = "hot air."

[Jellric]

It's not hot air, it's hydrogen.

[oilfreeandhappy]

I'm not real familiar with the Political leaning of Business Week. I've heard similar arguments from Fox News about how wonderful the economy is doing. We have huge debt and a huge trade deficit. This is not a good combination.

Here are some interesting facts from the CIA factbook. I've only chosen
comparisons between the US, Europe and Australia.

Population (2005): EU: 457 Million, US: 296 Million, Australia: 20
Million
Daily Oil Consumption: EU: 14.5 Million BBLS, US: 19.6 Million BBLS,
Australia: 796,000 BBLS
GDP: EU: 11.65 Trillion, US: 11.75 Trillion, Australia: 612 Billion


Dividing some of these figures:
Daily Oil Consumption per person: EU: .032 BBL/person, US: .066 BBL/person, Australia: .040 BBL/person

GDP/BBL of oil: EU: $800,000 / BBL, US: $600,000 / BBL, Australia:
$769,000 / BBL

I believe these are important figures. Basically it says that we're not getting the same bang for our BTU as Australia and Europe. If you think of this in terms of a business, we wouldn't be able to compete.

[jaws]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jellric', 'F')amous last words.

"This time it's different."

[rogerhb]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rogerhb', 'I')t's called PPT

[americandream]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rogerhb', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rogerhb', 'I')t's called PPT

[BrownDog]

I can definitely see how their argument points to a benefit for the corporations, but I find it much harder to see how this "knowledge economy" is going to be so good for employees.

Further, I find it to be no surprise that the corporate media would be pushing this kind of thinking.

[Ludi]

As a person who makes orginal things for a living, I'm constantly "investing in copyrights" but this doesn't give me any particular financial security.

*shrug*


I can't buy groceries with a copyright.

[Vexed]

Here is a list, acording to one blogger, of the best patents that have been handed down in the past couple of years. By "best" I would assume most profitable.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ') * Microsoft was awarded a patent Tuesday for a system and method for encouraging viewers to watch television programs, such as offering viewers frequent-flier miles for identifying the name of a sponsor or the color of an announcer’s shirt.
* After two rejections, Amazon was granted a patent Tuesday for the Extraction of bank routing number from information entered by a user, which covers the process of obtaining a routing and checking account number from information entered by a user from the face of a check.
* Washington Mutual was awarded a patent for a particular kind of bank branch — one that has play areas for kids, serves coffee and popcorn, and has kiosks instead of teller windows, which is denoted “Occasio.”
* An organization called United Video Properties, Inc. has been granted patent #6,748,596, titled Program guide system for recording television programs. Buh-bye TIVO.
* Network Associates, makers of McAfee, have been granted a broad anti-spam patent. The patent covers “compound filters, paragraph hashing, and Bayes rules” and was filed in December of 2002.
* The USPTO granted Amazon.com a patent for the Use of browser cookies to store structured data, which covers the storing of data structures and non-character data within browser cookies.

[DantesPeak]

GDP growth does not necessarily equate to an increase in personal income per person - or even per worker.

Essentially the government can increase GDP at will by increasing government spending. That is, assuming that someone will buy the bonds to finance the resulting budget deficit. So far, the US hasn't had problems doing so. Government spending and the deficit has increased substantially since the 'liberal' Clinton left office to be replaced with the conservative 'Bush'.

Somehow, I just don't agree with Business Week that incremental spending on ammunitions that go up in smoke and military salaries is a sign of a better than expected economy.

[Vexed]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'G')DP growth does not necessarily equate to an increase in personal income per person - or even per worker.

[lutherquick]

Most peak oil information is focused on how the "peak" is coming. And this estimate is really looking at "exponential growth". The math works because we have historical data and the fundamental mathematics that can be proven easily.

What I see little of is the exponential decay. That is, estimates as to how the down slope will look like. Many will interpolate, or estimate, and we can even use Hubbert's curve from the US lower 48 to come up with some sort of ball park, but globally, how does all this effect economies?

I will assume that as energy becomes more valuable, that economies near places of energy reserves will not suffer as great as those that have higher sinks (consumption / demand) coupled with lower supply. In fact, places that do have the remaining reserves may see fantastic economic activity as they learn to stretch those reserves, and as the advanced economies such as the US basically prostitute themselves for energy input out of desperation.

So I'm NOT focused on regions that will have energy reserves, those areas may actually enjoy exponential growth, but controlled, and slower. I focus here on the decay of established economies like the US. And I want to understand how the decay will look like.

There must be a way of estimating for example, how the US economy will collapse. Could we compare the US economy to decay rates of say "radio carbon dating"? That is, simple mathematics used to calculate "half life" of decaying isotopes or even bacteria.

It's all exponential. We got to where we are with exponential "growth", and now we will leave this height with exponential "decay".

In my humble opinion, I think we could use the very same mathematics used for calculating exponential decay of isotopes and bacteria to calculate how the US monetary and economic activity will decay and recede, even if we delay this decay with alternative energy sources, conservation, creative US foreign policy, or external US funded NGO activity.

If anyone knows of this decay analysis, please post it. And any thoughts would be appreciated.
Thank you in advance.

[rogerhb]

Hysteresis. There is a fair amount of momentum in the system to try and carry on as before.

[lutherquick]

rogerhb,

I do understand Hysteresis, and momentum. And the more "mass" that is in the system, then the more momentum and the higher the hysteresis...

But, that's like building aircraft out of cast iron.

And what will this momentum buy America? We have all this property in suburbia, we will need to sell it to foriegners and out source INTERNAL jobs such as Port Security in order to maintian dollar hegemony and keep the economy going...

The momentum will buy a very small amount of time. And the mass we have is going to make us create very strange deals such as this port security fiasco...

No matter how FAT the American economy is, the mementum is only going to add to the stench as we decay... mass might be good in a tank, but not in a fighter plane... and frankly, mass in a modern tank is pointless as well... mementum (based on mass as apposed to velocity) is for fat, suv, beer belly methedology...

[Kingcoal]

If you could predict future economic performance, you wouldn't be wasting your time trying to predict the end of the world, you'd be rich.

[rogerhb]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lutherquick', 'a')nd frankly, mass in a modern tank is pointless as well

[lutherquick]

Kingcoal,

The world is going to just fine.
I only try to predict where the most energy inefficiant economy is going to go. Knowing that, and you can be rich.

In my opinion, being in a 3rd world country or the US is going to be miserable. Living in the Middle East once American foriegn policy has no more energy to "fire" and "power" it's creativity, that's going to be a new world of peace... as well as living in countries that can befreind middle east nations...

[lutherquick]

rogerhb

You said "M1 Abrams is 69.5 tons."

This is very American thinking. Tonnage is better. This is why people drive bigger and bigger SUVS and have bigger and bigger homes... Mass is not indicative of performance. M1 tanks can't stop shaped charges. And they can't even stop a home made Iraqi IED. It's why bullet proof vests are made from Kevlar. If American thinking were applied to vests they would be made out of 15 foot thick cast iron. Agility, maneuverability will be less if there is more mass... And to all this, it's my point that the US economic activity of and highest consumption of energy at exponential growth rates will do nothing to stop exponential decay.

People think because my car is big that I can win this race, I say BS !!!!

My educated guess is that most of the world will do very well as the US economy starts to decay, fester, and rot. Mathematically, I believe the same equations used to plot and track radioactive decay could be used.

[rogerhb]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lutherquick', 'M')athematically, I believe the same equations used to plot and track radioactive decay could be used.