[Flow]

He is updating his site to push his Peak Oil date back even further once again (much like most that have predicted Peak Oil was right around the corner in the past).

[johnmarkos]

Um, that's not what I read.

Agree with it or not, Professor Deffeyes is sticking to his Thanksgiving, 2005 prediction.

http://www.princeton.edu/hubbert/current-events.html

See, "November 28, 2005."

I'm curious to know what he will say if it becomes obvious that oil did not peak on Thanksgiving (for example, if 2006 production exceeds that of 2005).

Also, he wrote in Hubbert's Peak that there's no way PO could be after 2009.

I'd love to hear a conversation between Deffeyes and Mike Lynch in 2011.

[DigitalCubano]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('johnmarkos', 'I')'m curious to know what he will say if it becomes obvious that oil did not peak on Thanksgiving (for example, if 2006 production exceeds that of 2005).

Also, he wrote in Hubbert's Peak that there's no way PO could be after 2009.

I'd love to hear a conversation between Deffeyes and Mike Lynch in 2011.

[uNkNowN ElEmEnt]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ould that be:
Biggist Prickist?

... after failing to contain the snickering...

Centurian, thwow him to the fwoowr!

[clv101]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Flow', 'H')e is updating his site to push his Peak Oil date back even further once again (much like most that have predicted Peak Oil was right around the corner in the past).

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('clv101', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Flow', 'H')e is updating his site to push his Peak Oil date back even further once again (much like most that have predicted Peak Oil was right around the corner in the past).

[seldom_seen]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')irsch considered technologies for replacing crude oil that are ready or nearly ready for commercial use.

[PeakOiler]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnviroEngr', 'W')ould that be:
Biggist Prickist?

... after failing to contain the snickering...

Centurian, thwow him to the fwoowr!

[Carlhole]

FTW Subscribers Only Story (this is the email teaser)

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('source', '�')��I’m not so worried about the next 15 to 20 years. I’m very scared about the next five.”

By
Jamey Hecht

December 7, 2005 0800 PST (FTW) -- At 8 p.m. on December 1st, Kenneth Deffeyes gave this year’s Lauritsen Memorial Lecture to a packed house at Beckman Auditorium on the California Institute of Technology campus. Just over 800 people heard the thesis and supporting arguments of his most recent book, Beyond Oil. It’s a brief, graceful book whose two strengths are a new non-technical presentation of M. King Hubbert’s work aimed at laypeople (without the use of logarithmic curves), and a survey of the various non-conventional sources of hydrocarbon energy (including coal gasification, tar sands, methane hydrates, and others). The venue was ideal, as the press release explained: “Though he is not affiliated with Caltech, Deffeyes’ work is of keen interest to the Caltech community, in part because the Institute’s vice provost, David Goodstein, is also an authority on the coming production peak of oil.”

[Tanada]

I received The View From Hubbert's Peak by Dr. Deffeyes for christmas and finished reading it yesterday. I was surprised to discover to moderate factual errors in the chapter on Uranium and would like to submit correction to the Professor for subseqyent editions of his book.

Any suggestions on how to effectively contact the Professor with the corrections?

[gt1370a]

Deffeyes, Kenneth S.
Professor of Geosciences, Emeritus.
Home Department: Geosciences
Office Address: B58A2 Guyot Hall
Campus Phone: 609-258-3597
Campus Fax: 609-258-1274
E-mail: deffeyes@Princeton.EDU

[Leanan]

He's updated his Web site: link
The good news is, the peak wasn't Thanksgiving Day last year. The bad news - it was three weeks later.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')y 2025, we're going to be back in the Stone Age.

[Leanan]

I'm not sure, but perhaps he means the oil drawn from reserves? After Katrina, we pulled oil out of our own strategic petroleum reserve, as well as Europe's and Japan's. That would be demand that was not met by production.

Simmons also believes the Saudis use their huge tank farms to disguise their actual production.

[backstop]

Leanan -that confirmation is some news !
One aspect I don't follow is D's statement that while global supply rose by a mere 0.8% last year despite the escalating prices, global demand rose by 3%.
Short of measuring garage queues of un-sated drivers, how is un-met "demand" measured ? Could you clarify this ?

[clv101]

While he may be right and 2006 might see lower production - there's no way it can be calculated as he has done there with such crazy precision. The peak global flow rate might occur after 55% or 60% of URR has been extracted. It's said that his Thanksgiving prediction was tong-in-cheek, this is also?

[clv101]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('backstop', 'O')ne aspect I don't follow is D's statement that while global supply rose by a mere 0.8% last year despite the escalating prices, global demand rose by 3%. Short of measuring garage queues of un-sated drivers, how is un-met "demand" measured ?

[Leanan]

Looks like the servers are out of synch again. Either that, or I used my psychic ability to predict Backstop's question and answer it before he asked it.
I'm not sure how serious Deffeyes is. But I think he does believe in Hubbert's method. Hubbert's method isn't much affected by new discoveries. Hence the U.S. peak was in 1970, as predicted, despite the huge Prudhoe Bay reserves which Hubbert did not consider. Deffeyes argues, convincingly, that because production is so high right now, it will be very difficult for new finds to make a real difference. We cannot replace all the existing, declining fields with new finds. And he thinks Ghawar is going down fast:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')hawar, the supergiant Saudi oilfield, is producing increasing amounts of water along with the oil. When Simmons sent Twilight in the Desert to the printer, the water cut at Ghawar was around 30 percent. There are later reports on the Internet (home.entouch.net/dmd/ghawar.htm) of water cuts as high as 55 percent. Ghawar has been producing 4 million barrels per day; when the Ghawar field waters out, you can kiss your lifestyle goodbye.

[mekrob]

How exactly do you pronounce Deffeyes correctly? I can't find a way without some help on this one. Thanks

[sjn]

I can see no problem with demand being higher than production. While it can't continue indefinitely supply can and was/is met from reserves and inventries. Indeed the release from the SPRs had the effect of surpresing the price and holding demand at a level necessarily higher than production.

[Leanan]

It's Def - fays.