[oilluber]

Any comments as to how things are different as compared to
the last commodity cycle of the 1970's ??

eg
1. World population/demand
2. Supply of oil
3. US savings/wages of the 1970's vs today's situation
4. US fiscal deficits


Your opinions ??

Thanks

[backstop]

Oilluber -

Your question addresses a range of conventional measures of economic potential but lacks a focus on our potential as a society to optimize the outcome of those factors.

I'd suggest that where we are going is about both Circumstances & Inclinations.

In this light the main difference I see is in the gutlessness of those people between 15 and 30.

The apathy and defeatism that is now prevalent was simply rare in the '70s.

How much of this is down to the switch to culturally soporific drugs (such as skunk, exctasy, coke and heroin),
from inspirational ones (such as grass, acid, mescaline and fly agaric), is unclear but certainly it's substantial.

Just a comparison of what now passes for the best of contemporary music appears to confirm this.

Given that young people's attitude to what's going on around them is pivotal to society's overall response,
this seems to me a critical change since the '70s.

regards,

Backstop

[blukatzen]

Hey Backstop,

Very astute assumptions there.

Now, as for drugs, I don't disagree with your observation of drugs of choice, however, you 've left out alchohol, which was always our "drug" of choice, maybe a little pot for some. I remember some weekends drinking downstairs in our parent's basements, just a few 6 packs, for kicks, most kids I knew didn't do more beyond that. In college, you either drank on weekends, or studied/worked. I did the latter.

Regarding changes in drug useage, the biggest difference are in prescription drugs like Ritalin, whose use has been 100 to 1000 times more for this generation of kids.

Also, you must look at differences and changes in demographics. There was not the amount of people of Hispanic persuasion in our North American culture by any means. The proportion now is about 10 to 20 percent larger, and that maybe conservative in certain areas, I know here in Chicago, whole communities have been taken over by Hispanic marketing. There is a new demographic to market to.
There is a growing Middle-Eastern and Indian demographic not far behind.

Also, there are FAR fewer manufacturing jobs. This has a lot of implications for the future..I know many of our younger workers wonder how they are going to pay off those college loans. We never worried about getting a job back then, it seemed that if something didn't work out, you could always get a job "at the factory", or "in construction", that one or two of your friends may have ended up at.

The younger people also are used to having somewhat more material goods/toys/lifestyle than we were used to. We were lucky to get an older car when out of high school,and we were happy with that, as I recall! (remember the term "Rustbuckets"?)
We didn't have to "be" in touch with data planners, cell phones, blackberries, etc., all that electronic junk that clutters up your life. However much I love the internet, I still think that there is something to be said about going to the library to do research.

Sometimes I miss that simple life.

I would say this..if my parents had issues about gas shortages, etc. they NEVER let on to us. We were sheltered from much of that, but not unaware. We weren't raised to think we had "no future".
We figured when we went to school, that it was "our job" to be there to learn ways to make our own future better, and if we didn't succeed, then it was our own damn fault, because no one was going to be there to make it better for us.

I figure every generation has to figure this out for themselves. We just had disco balls around us while we were doing that.

[Leanan]

I think today's youth have a lot going for them. If you believe Neil Howe's "Generations" theory, Generation Y will be the reincarnation of the Greatest Generation.

(Howe is a demographer who believes American generations repeat on a four-generation cycle, basically in reaction to the generations that came before. For example, the ennui-ridden youth of the Roaring Twenties was repeated four generations later, with the apathetic Generation X.)

Howe believes Generation Y will be extraordinary, in part because the Baby Boom generation's only real talent is cherishing their children. (He's a Boomer himself, but says Boomer-type generations never accomplish much, because they are too idealistic to compromise.)

I do think the future may be a horrible shock for some young people, simply because they have been so sheltered. Many have been home-schooled, because their parents wanted to protect them (from the "gay agenda," from playground bullies, from teachers who would "crush their spirts," etc.). This is already causing some problems in the workplace, where 20-somethings are often rudely surprised at not being coddled in the office the way they were at home. But they are also an extraordinarily creative and confident generation, and have proven valuable employees once they adjust.

I'm not really worried about young people. I think they'll be fine. I think it's the older folks who will have the most trouble if things go downhill. They're the ones who have so much invested in the status quo. Their 401(k)s, their mortgages, their Roth IRAs, their pensions...they will feel they worked hard all their lives doing what they were supposed to, only to get screwed.

[dhfenton]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('backstop', 'O')illuber -

In this light the main difference I see is in the gutlessness of those people between 15 and 30.

The apathy and defeatism that is now prevalent was simply rare in the '70s.
Backstop

[backstop]

dhfenton -

I should clarify quite what I meant -

The lack now is of young people en masse to stand up to a US regime that even the dear old BBC is starting to say is out of control.

Rather than marching and protesting its genocidal negligence of GW + PO,
young Americans, plus British, Australians and others, are heading for the auto, the mall, and the 'designer label'.

When I think of the numbers who campaigned, risking and suffering arrest and brutality, for the determination to see their aspirations fulfilled, the present stupefaction is quite a contrast.

How the necessary spirit will be awoken in the rising generation seems to me the central question.

regards,

Backstop

[oilluber]

sorry if I was too vague.
From an investment, econmical forecastin point of view
(eg trying to make money on peak oil),,,
do you guys think that the oil cycle this time will be different
considering the huge fiscal US deficits, the low saving rate,
the poor real wages of the US worker...or anything
that may be different in this cycle compared to the 1970's ??

ie is it irreversable this time in that the USD may finally tank
and what this will mean for the peak oil religion and also
for me as an investor in oil companies ???

[markam]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'd')o you guys think that the oil cycle this time will be different

[backstop]

Oilluber,

I guess it means that as long as you are investing in fossil oil companies you are a complicit part of the problem.

How about investing in sustainable forest energy, and becoming an active part of the solution ?

And please do not take offence from the above - none whatsoever is intended,
as we all start from the point where we wake up to the scope and implications of the problem.

regards,

Backstop

[rogerhb]

My Dad started a short-lived vegetable garden in the 70s, don't think he will bother this time.

[pup55]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n this light the main difference I see is in the gutlessness of those people between 15 and 30.

The apathy and defeatism that is now prevalent was simply rare in the '70s.

[rogerhb]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', 'T')here is a way to fix it.

[diogenes]

Many of the twenty-something men you see around you who seem to be unmotivated losers have "played the game," only to find that there is no reward at the end. Today's economy, if you look past the glowing reports the mass media and government spew, is nowhere near healthy. It's a bit ridiculous to think that people who graduate from high school and college only to find themselves "out in the cold" will be able to maintain a motivated and optimistic spirit. Polishing your degree-frame provides only so much spiritual uplift between shifts at the local Floor-Mart.

In the seventies, people were still coming off the high that was the post-World War II era. The ascendancy of America, the leadership of the free world--a glorious future, socially enlightened and benevolent. Well, then came AIDS, the collapse of the Soviet Union--and nothing is as disheartening as a rival's collapse--many honest whistleblowers who pointed out our government's hypocrisy in foreign and domestic policy, huge public policy gaffes, a shrinking manufacturing sector, a sense of malaise and foreboding----

Boys are told in school that they are evil and violent, that men are prone to rage and are unable to think outside their pants. Many energetic boys who are otherwise bright are drugged to the gills so that they're more convenient for their working parents. The arenas that have always fostered competition among boys have been removed. When I was in elementary school, grades were often posted with the name beside them. It wasn't a secret. We competed to have good grades, and I did quite well. It was a motivator. Later, grades were posted only with your student identification number--and later, not at all, because it might hurt someone's feelings. Even games like dodgeball and tag, which I loved even as an unathletic geek, are being banned. Touch football, gone.

Is it any wonder you don't see boys and young men able to muster up much enthusiasm for a race they have no chance of winning? Many more people sense a coming crisis than know about peak oil.

[fossil_fuel]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ow much of this is down to the switch to culturally soporific drugs (such as skunk, exctasy, coke and heroin),
from inspirational ones (such as grass, acid, mescaline and fly agaric), is unclear but certainly it's substantial.

[TorrKing]

According to a study, most kids in Norway today can't even manage to hold their own weight when hanging from their arms. Much less pull themselves up. That tells me something. They don't have a clue how to do anything that isn't computer related.

Torjus Gaaren

[pup55]

We are really saying the same thing, Diogenes, and I agree with many of your comments. I thought I would get more disagreement.

A lot of the problem stems from the screwed up educational system we now have, as you have pointed out, which is currently administered by the bottom 20% of the college graduates of the 1970's (who went on to become teachers and then administrators).

This plus a lot of other factors have ganged up to produce an entire dysfunctional generation. If the Chinese knew this, they would be lined up at the border right now ready to move in, except they are too smart to try to overrun us and have to put up with the administrative problems. Easier to buy us out.

The mexicans already know this, and they are already starting their conquest.

Which brings up the question, why would a 20-something mexican check out of his home village and come up here and work like a dog for 60 hours a week laying pine straw or cutting meat, while the US men of the same age lay around and whine about how life is unfair and the system is set up against them etc.?

The answer is that we let them. The Mexicans can't afford to let their young men sit around and whine.

[pup55]

Anyway, to get the thread back on-task, the original quesiton posed was:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'd')o you guys think that the oil cycle this time will be different
considering the huge fiscal US deficits, the low saving rate,
the poor real wages of the US worker...or anything
that may be different in this cycle compared to the 1970's ??

[lawnchair]

Viewed from an American perspective, the difference is between the euphoria of the US at-peak, versus the distant euphoria of a world at-peak, but a US thirty years past.

Personally, I've chosen a symbolic date for "Peak USA". That date is 14-December-1972.

That was the day that the Apollo 17 lunar module lifted off the moon. That was the end of human, haul-our-monkey-butts, exploration. A third of a century later, and we have bothered to do no more, nor even go back to the moon. Too bureaucratic, too scared of failure.

In the end, 14-Dec-72 is pretty meaningless, but it makes a good date.

Slightly over a year before, US oil production peaked at a level we'll never return to.

Nixon closed the gold window in 1971. This was not so much a cause of disaster, but an admission that US extractive growth ability was over. 15-Aug-71 would also be a good day to pick, but it took a while for Bretton Woods to collapse. This inflection point is the triumph of the modern system of inflation. Sure it's 'measured', at a 'healthy' 3-5% (except when it's not). But, the collapse of a stable currency has lead to the hypertrophic growth-at-all-costs mentality. Simply owning one's means of production, and making enough to pay the bills, is not enough. You must also grow enough to keep up with Leviathan's (govt and banks) growth rate, or else slowly be whittled away. Except, you have to make more, more, more; Leviathan must simply print money.

Finally, within a year after Apollo 17, the OPEC nations had the US in a vice-grip over oil. Ever since, more and more of our efforts go to the people who still-have providence-given hydrocarbons under their sand. Since we extract less, and make less, every year since 1973 has been eating away at our infrastructure. Roadways, railroads, water projects, urban investment, quality of education... business investment, too... we've been gnawing away ever since, to send it overseas.

None of this was clear in 1970. It may not be clear to Americans of 2006, but it is a part of their psyche. Those of us in the US under 35 know a very brash and very hollow superpower.

[dhfenton]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', '
')
A lot of the problem stems from the screwed up educational system we now have, as you have pointed out, which is currently administered by the bottom 20% of the college graduates of the 1970's (who went on to become teachers and then administrators).

This plus a lot of other factors have ganged up to produce an entire dysfunctional generation.

[oilluber]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('backstop', 'O')illuber,

I guess it means that as long as you are investing in fossil oil companies you are a complicit part of the problem.

How about investing in sustainable forest energy, and becoming an active part of the solution ?

And please do not take offence from the above - none whatsoever is intended,
as we all start from the point where we wake up to the scope and implications of the problem.

regards,

Backstop