PeakOil is You
The world as a whole has not been explored for liquid oil.
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The world as a whole has not been explored for liquid oil.
by MarkL » Tue 19 Oct 2004, 12:00:59
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Last edited by MarkL on Sat 25 Aug 2007, 17:56:44, edited 1 time in total.
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by Leanan » Tue 19 Oct 2004, 12:09:43
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')ould it also be true that with newer oil field mapping technoligy, they wouldn't waste their time with wells that would be dry?
Bingo!
Petroleum geologists, like Deffeyes, say that the world has been thoroughly explored. The oil industry was born in the U.S., so naturally that's where most of the holes were drilled. They were doing little better than guessing in those days. You had to drill 30 dry holes before you found oil. Now, the geology of oil formation is well understood. They know where to look, and where it's pointless. They also have technology like sonic mapping, that lets them know what's going on underground without drilling an inch. They don't start drilling now unless there's a good chance of finding oil.
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by pip » Tue 19 Oct 2004, 12:13:06
That's a good point, one that I haven't seen the peak oil proponents address here. This is a possible scenario I see. World oil production normally stays at just enough to satisfy demand. New exploration takes place only when needed. There is no economic justification to find oil you won't sell for 10 years. Problem with the current situation is that India and China jumped up in demand and messed up the normal demand trend, thus we have a short supply now. It will take a few years for the new production to come on line to meet the demand and bring everything back to normal.
I realize this may not be true, but I haven't seen any chart of world spare capacity over the last few decades. To be convinced of peak oil, I will need to see a failure of the market to respond to increase supply within two years.
I realize this may not be true, but I haven't seen any chart of world spare capacity over the last few decades. To be convinced of peak oil, I will need to see a failure of the market to respond to increase supply within two years.
The road goes on forever and the party never ends - REK
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by tmazanec1 » Tue 19 Oct 2004, 13:00:34
There has been little oil found in the last several years, even with rising demand. And by the time we started drilling in Africa, we had a decent handle on where to look intead of sprinkling the continent with wells like we did North America.
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by Pops » Tue 19 Oct 2004, 14:04:22
I have to believe they know what they are doing after a century and a half. Could it be that there just isn’t any significant oil to find or are they losing money on purpose?
From the Financial Times (subscription)
"The world's biggest oil companies are failing to get value for money when they explore for new reserves, according to research by Wood Mackenzie, the energy consultant.
The report shows the commercial value of oil and gas discovered over the past three years by the 10 largest listed energy groups is running well below the amount they have spent on exploration.â€
From the Financial Times (subscription)
"The world's biggest oil companies are failing to get value for money when they explore for new reserves, according to research by Wood Mackenzie, the energy consultant.
The report shows the commercial value of oil and gas discovered over the past three years by the 10 largest listed energy groups is running well below the amount they have spent on exploration.â€
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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by StayOnTarget » Tue 19 Oct 2004, 14:22:20
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') realize this may not be true, but I haven't seen any chart of world spare capacity over the last few decades. To be convinced of peak oil, I will need to see a failure of the market to respond to increase supply within two years.
In the same vein as pops response but regarding the decline of global spare production over the last 25 years.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')eeb says that during the last oil crisis, the world was producing at 70% capacity. Now it's at 99%.
Quote is from this article that was posted earlier in another thread.
http://www.forbes.com/business/energy/2004/10/19/cx_da_1019topnews.html
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by Leanan » Tue 19 Oct 2004, 16:34:54
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ew technology doesn't explain why there have been 33 times more holes drilled in the US than Africa in the past 8 years.
There are still untapped reserves. Especially in Africa. No one is arguing that. But are there undiscovered reserves? Deffeyes says no, not much, and I believe him.
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