[MonteQuest]

A very good article with lots of data and charts. Note the sentence I have put in bold.

The Time of Sands

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')espite a doubling in crude prices over the last two years, non-OPEC supply failed to grow in 2005, resulting in a modest million barrel net increase in daily global production. Energy markets should brace themselves for another year of tight supply, as the rebound in production growth once again falls short of expectations.

Over 60% of the 3.6 million barrels of new oil production that will come on stream in 2006 will not support demand growth but simply offset the loss from depletion of existing fields such as the North Sea or the giant Burgan field in Kuwait. Net of depletion, conventional oil supply will continue to decline this year, just as it did last year. 2004, in hindsight, will prove to be a Hubbert curve peak, at least insofar as low-cost conventional crude is concerned. In any event, all of the increase in net global crude supply this year, as well as for the rest of the decade, will come from non-conventional sources like deep-water and oil sands.

We live not only in a world of rapidly depleting conventional oil supplies, but also in a world in which those that remain are increasingly beyond the private sector’s reach. Virtually all of OPEC’s massive production remains in the hands of staterun oil companies. What little is in private hands is being quickly converted back under state control as recent events in Venezuela attest. And even outside of OPEC, the picture isn’t much different. From Mexico to Russia, which has embarked on a de facto re-nationalization of its industry, the bias towards state control over energy resources remains strong. About 80% of the world’s conventional oil reserves remain effectively off limits to private investment. The combination of depleting reserves and sweeping state ownership has left each of the world’s six largest publicly traded oil firms looking at probable production declines over the next two years. That sets the stage for a mad scramble for whatever proven reserves the market still has access to.

[Sys1]

And oil barrel price keeps in the sixty range...
Even decreasing !
With such a wise market, we'll have an awesome post peak scenario.

[Jack]

Fascinating indeed.

Especially since this only covers two giant fields. I wonder what will replace declines in Gwahar? In the highly unlikely event that Gwahar ever declines, of course?

[Kingcoal]

Collin Campbel was recommending that hydrocarbon resources be nationalized. Seems his wish is coming true.