Peak will come in 2005-2025. For a little better guess I say 2007-2017.
Data is so bad we can't make any sure predictions.
R.Koppelaar (known as Taskforce_Unity on this forum) says plateau 2010 until 2016, with peak in 2012. That sounds pretty credible to me.
I especially like his metodology which is neither Hubbert theoretical math, nor USGS statistical analysis nor economics theoretical math.
His report.
PeakOil is You
Post the year you expect oil to peak
Re: Post the year you expect oil to peak
by Starvid » Sat 04 Feb 2006, 10:30:45
Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
-
Starvid - Intermediate Crude
- Posts: 3021
- Joined: Sun 20 Feb 2005, 04:00:00
- Location: Uppsala, Sweden
Re: Post the year you expect oil to peak
by TheTurtle » Sat 04 Feb 2006, 11:04:16
2005 
“Humankind has not woven the web of life. We are but one thread within it. Whatever we do to the web, we do to ourselves.” (Ted Perry)
-
TheTurtle - Heavy Crude
- Posts: 1905
- Joined: Sat 14 May 2005, 03:00:00
- Location: Along the banks of the muddy Mississippi
Re: Post the year you expect oil to peak
by JustinFrankl » Sat 04 Feb 2006, 14:59:19
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', 'P')eak will come in 2005-2025. For a little better guess I say 2007-2017.
Data is so bad we can't make any sure predictions.
R.Koppelaar (known as Taskforce_Unity on this forum) says plateau 2010 until 2016, with peak in 2012. That sounds pretty credible to me.
I especially like his metodology which is neither Hubbert theoretical math, nor USGS statistical analysis nor economics theoretical math.
His report.
Data is so bad we can't make any sure predictions.
R.Koppelaar (known as Taskforce_Unity on this forum) says plateau 2010 until 2016, with peak in 2012. That sounds pretty credible to me.
I especially like his metodology which is neither Hubbert theoretical math, nor USGS statistical analysis nor economics theoretical math.
His report.
Right now, plus or minus 12 months is the peak.
The oil projects and decline methodology in the above mentioned report, unless I read it incorrectly, is based on CERA's and ODAC's work involving oil projects planned to come online in the coming years. The problem with this methodology is that the ability to produce is a function of what has already been produced and is available at that time. Production is not a function of time, production is a function of ability to produce, which is a function of past production.
Linear analysis of these data is insufficient, and it appears this model is linear. At the very least, some kind of ARMA or ARIMA model should be used, if not a dynamic system of nonlinear equations.
"We have seen the enemy, and he is us." -- Walt Kelly
- JustinFrankl
- Tar Sands
- Posts: 623
- Joined: Mon 22 Aug 2005, 03:00:00
Re: Post the year you expect oil to peak
by JoeCoal » Sat 04 Feb 2006, 16:43:12
Anyone remember when they last saw $1.50 gas? That was it.
Good night, and good luck...
- JoeCoal
- Lignite
- Posts: 293
- Joined: Thu 02 Feb 2006, 04:00:00
Re: Post the year you expect oil to peak
by Odin » Sun 05 Feb 2006, 17:33:40
Sometime in the next 2 years.
"Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis." -Starvid
The 2nd Law of Thermodynamics only applies in a closed system; Earth is NOT a closed system.
The 2nd Law of Thermodynamics only applies in a closed system; Earth is NOT a closed system.
-
Odin - Peat
- Posts: 89
- Joined: Sat 28 Jan 2006, 04:00:00
- Location: Moorhead, MN, USA
Re: Post the year you expect oil to peak
by leal » Sun 05 Feb 2006, 18:07:09
ASPO forecast is 2010 for all liquids, link to February newsletter.
-
leal - Peat
- Posts: 198
- Joined: Sun 24 Oct 2004, 03:00:00
- Location: Sweden
Re: Post the year you expect oil to peak
by untothislast » Sun 05 Feb 2006, 18:13:39
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ElijahJones', 'i')ts damn spooky that so many US presidents have been descended form royalty, they must have a genethat codes for ambition. Even Milhouse was a royal descendant.
One thing you can always depend on with the Royals - they have no trouble churning out bastards.
-
untothislast - Tar Sands
- Posts: 686
- Joined: Sat 22 Oct 2005, 03:00:00
- Location: European Capital of Kulcha 2008
Re: Post the year you expect oil to peak
by smallpoxgirl » Sun 05 Feb 2006, 19:29:54
For all intents and purposes, we're at peak. The exact date of the actual numerical peak could be anywhere from 2005 to 2008 and in truth the actual date is an only an academic concern anyway. We've entered a period where any little disruption sends demand way above supply and the price skyrockets. When everything is perfect, demand is just under supply and prices stabilize...even drop a bit. Over the next couple of years demand will continue to climb while supply remains static and the panic situation we saw after Katrina will become the everyday norm.
-
smallpoxgirl - Expert
- Posts: 7258
- Joined: Mon 08 Nov 2004, 04:00:00
Re: Post the year you expect oil to peak
by grabby » Sun 05 Feb 2006, 22:54:45
Washington will wake up any time now.
-
grabby - Heavy Crude
- Posts: 1291
- Joined: Tue 08 Nov 2005, 04:00:00
Re: Post the year you expect oil to peak
by Antimatter » Mon 06 Feb 2006, 00:01:25
ASPO sez 2010, Laherrere 2015 (for all liquids) but hey I'm a clueless peak oil cultist and I NEED MY DOOM NOW!
"Production of useful work is limited by the laws of thermodynamics, but the production of useless work seems to be unlimited."
-
Antimatter - Tar Sands
- Posts: 587
- Joined: Tue 04 Jan 2005, 04:00:00
- Location: Australia
Re: Post the year you expect oil to peak
by grabby » Mon 06 Feb 2006, 01:50:26
These may come first.
-
grabby - Heavy Crude
- Posts: 1291
- Joined: Tue 08 Nov 2005, 04:00:00
Re: Post the year you expect oil to peak
by Starvid » Mon 06 Feb 2006, 07:09:54
I would like to give a word of caution in predicting early peaks (based on what by the way?) as they will probably not come to pass and will further undermine the credibility of the peak oil movement.
edit: or to say it another way: avoid cultists who NEED DOOM NOW!!!!1111
edit: or to say it another way: avoid cultists who NEED DOOM NOW!!!!1111
Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
-
Starvid - Intermediate Crude
- Posts: 3021
- Joined: Sun 20 Feb 2005, 04:00:00
- Location: Uppsala, Sweden
Re: Post the year you expect oil to peak
by JayBee » Mon 06 Feb 2006, 07:19:18
Earth's oil peaked in 1853. We've never had as much since.
Downhill all the way.
Downhill all the way.
- JayBee
- Peat
- Posts: 156
- Joined: Fri 30 Sep 2005, 03:00:00
- Location: UK
Re: Post the year you expect oil to peak
by MD » Mon 06 Feb 2006, 07:20:39
There is a significant possibility that PeakOil will never be recognized as a significant event.
More attention will be given to the symptoms instead of the cause.
quote from 2015:
"peak oil? what the hell are you talking about? there's plenty of oil...if OPEC, Nigeria, Venezuela, China, Iran, Bird Flu, etc hadn't wrecked the world economy in 2009, we would be still using 90+ million barrels a day instead of the 50 we are using now...now leave me alone, I have to go work on my vegetable garden so I can eat this winter."
More attention will be given to the symptoms instead of the cause.
quote from 2015:
"peak oil? what the hell are you talking about? there's plenty of oil...if OPEC, Nigeria, Venezuela, China, Iran, Bird Flu, etc hadn't wrecked the world economy in 2009, we would be still using 90+ million barrels a day instead of the 50 we are using now...now leave me alone, I have to go work on my vegetable garden so I can eat this winter."
Last edited by MD on Mon 06 Feb 2006, 07:25:43, edited 1 time in total.
Stop filling dumpsters, as much as you possibly can, and everything will get better.
Just think it through.
It's not hard to do.
Just think it through.
It's not hard to do.
-
MD - COB
- Posts: 4953
- Joined: Mon 02 May 2005, 03:00:00
- Location: On the ball
Re: Post the year you expect oil to peak
by grabby » Mon 06 Feb 2006, 08:22:57
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', 'I') would like to give a word of caution in predicting early peaks (based on what by the way?) as they will probably not come to pass and will further undermine the credibility of the peak oil movement.
edit: or to say it another way: avoid cultists who NEED DOOM NOW!!!!1111
[/img]
edit: or to say it another way: avoid cultists who NEED DOOM NOW!!!!1111
[/img]
Ok you asked. THANKS!
Since you ASKED how I know, I'll tell you a little, but you don't need me, you just need GOOGLE. Check it out for yourself,
My conclusion is solely based on the facts
middle east cultures who will do everything to start it wether or not they have nukes. But they dont need nukes to start the big one at all, they just need to cut off oil. I am notanyone who would ever hurt a fly or tell anyone to hurt anyone, but I can warn just fine about what is coming.
but we are at peak now. OPEC is actually almost powerless now, I think. They can't "Outproduce" in a crises, Been there done that.
Saudis said "DONT COUNT ON US ANY MORE!"
That is an amazing point in history, OPEC just declared that they can't OPEC anymore!
NUKES are going to be the problem soon.
set off by peak oil.
I am a newsreader and understand what drives the Mid east culture.
And I can put together 2+2.
but the nuclear option is a real threat as long as there is land to fight over and oil to loose and a group of people dedicated to starting the war as in the mid east..
You can't stop anyone from turning of their taps. when they do it will be just like 1970 again when effectively WE ran out of supply due to our peak.
Did you know there are mid east nations that are trying to start the worlds destruction? They atually WANT a global destruction?
You think peak oil will be started slowly?
Not so,
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MAIN INTERNATIONAL NEWS SOURCE', '
')The man in charge of hoodwinking the Western powers about Iran's now 18-year-old secret nuclear program believes the apocalypse will happen in his own lifetime. He'll be 50 in October.
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's Shi'ite creed has convinced him lesser mortals can not only influence but hasten the awaited return of the 12th Imam, known as the Mahdi. Iran's dominant "Twelver" sect holds this will be Muhammad ibn Hasan, the righteous descendant of the Prophet Muhammad. He is said to have gone into "occlusion" in the 9th century, at age 5. His return will be preceded by cosmic chaos, war, bloodshed and pestilence. After this cataclysmic confrontation between the forces of good and evil, the Mahdi will lead the world to an era of universal peace.
"The ultimate promise of all Divine religions," says Ahmadinejad, "will be fulfilled with the emergence of a perfect human being [the 12th Imam], who is heir to all prophets. He will lead the world to justice and absolute peace. Oh mighty Lord, I pray to you to hasten the emergence of your last repository, the promised one." He reckons the return of the Imam, AWOL for 11 centuries, is only two years away.
Mr. Ahmadinejad is close to the messianic Hojjatieh Society, which is governed by the conviction the 12th Imam's return will be hastened by "the creation of chaos on Earth." He has fired Iran's most experienced diplomats and scores of other officials, presumably those who don't share his belief in apocalyptic conflagration.
The Iranian leader's finger on a nuclear trigger would be disquieting under any circumstances. Positively alarming would be a nuclear weapon in the hands of a man who badgers Israel, the U.S. and the European Union in belief a pre-emptive aerial attack on Iran's nuclear facilities will hasten the return of the missing Mahdi. Such an attack presumably would trigger anti-Western mayhem throughout the Middle East.
When he became Iran's sixth president since the 1979 revolution last summer, Mr. Ahmadinejad decided to donate $20 million to the Jamkaran mosque, a popular pilgrimage site where the faithful can drop their missives to the "Hidden Imam" in a holy well. Tehran's working-class faithful are convinced the new president and his Cabinet signed a "compact" pledging themselves to precipitate the return of the Mahdi -- and dropped it down Jamkaran's well with the Mahdi's zip code.
In Mr. Ahmadinejad's eyes, Iran is strong, with oil inching up to $70 a barrel and America, dependent on foreign oil, is weak. He has said publicly America and Europe have far more to lose than Iran if the U.N. Security Council votes for tough economic sanctions. He also figures if Israeli and/or U.S. warplanes strike Iran, all he has to do is give the U.S. a hard time in Iraq as American forces prepare to withdraw.
Moving two or three Iranian divisions into Iraq and activating Shi'ite suicide bombers and hit squads throughout the region would not be too hard for a country that fought an 8-year war against Iraq (1980-88) and had no compunction about giving thousands of youngsters a key to paradise and 72 virgins before sending them across Iraqi minefields.
A top Ahmadinejad officer, Brig. Gen. Mohammad Kossari, who heads the political watchdog, or Security Bureau, of Iran's armed forces, recently taunted the U.S. when he bragged "we have identified all the weak points of our enemies" and have sufficient cannon fodder -- i.e., suicide operation volunteers -- "ready to strike at these sensitive locations." Iranian television recently broadcast an animated film for Iranian children glorifying suicide bombers.
See? I am trying to show you something, don't hit me.
I am letting you know what they are planning. I am not one of them I wish they would go away.
But they won't.
I don't have any hard feelings toward you, I really believe you think I am a religious crazy wanting the destruction, No, I'd rather work and have grandkids and retire, than destroy the world, but that is not what is in the future. If you don't want to believe it you don't have to, but you asked how I know, and here it is, I can read the direct promises and I see they can do it easily, we are at peak and all they have to do is shut down their total production.
now we, as a business people will say THEY WILL NEVER DO THAT THEY NEED THE MONEY AND THEY WOULD LOOSE BILLIONS!
Well, they will do it cause they are very religious and they are TRYING to cause a crisis. Get it? We don't think like they do they will try to do it.
When is this going to happen? THEY TOLD US!
But the truth is we are still right at peak and because of that we are now today 100% susceptible to any nation shutting down production.
They WANT to usher in the age of IMAM and the only way is a world destruction and THEY WANT THIS.
this is incredible to believe, but think of this, THEY ARE LIVING MISERABLE LIVES and they want this to happen.
I am ON YOUR SIDE friend I told you what I think which may be wrong, but it IS based on facts out there.
These are just my opinions from the facts and if they don't come true In the next 2-3 years I will be happy that millions did not perish. great!.
I run on facts and figures and do not make ecisions on what I want to have happen, They say just 2 years or so.
I don't want doom, but I can't stop wild men. These wild men tell us theya re goig to do this. Hope they are stopped.
unfortunately any one of the OPEC countries could now CAUSE a crisis any time they want by just SHUTTING OFF OIL PRODUCTION..
Bush and company know this, and that is why they want to be THERE in mid east to quickly avert it when they want to shut off their oil To help them see a BETTER WAY.
this thread said
WHEN DO YOU THINK PEAK OIL CRISIS IS COMING?
I was being honest, the wild men say 2 years they will put us in a crisis.
IF they go through with it. I hope they won't
We have wild men in charge of oil who know all they have to do is stop producing for a crises and who promise there is going to be a crisis.
So I kind of expect one.
I think we are at peak, and OPEC is powerfless to avert one of these nations to shut off.
I just gave you the truth, in a year or two there will be a humdinger of a crisis of some kind, hopefully JUST OIL SHORTAGE.
Hopefully just oil shortage..
Ok, you said "Early peak based on what? The statements of leaders of powerful oil producing nations.
ook at oil production in 1970 there was a HUGE SHARP PEAK.
In two years there will be another HUGE SHARP PEAK if they cut the oil.
.
It will be the SAME CAUSE only this time US cant run to the oil pumpers to increase production. They don't have any extra now.
well, based on our serious flat top peak position and the necessety for some people to nthink they have to start the GREAT SATANAS TOTAL DESTRUCTION within 2-3 years so that the BIG IMAMA can come, otherwise it will be deleyed for some umpteenth thousand years.
Would you want to be responsible for delaying the great IMAM's coming for another thousand years ?
So in my opinion peak oil (ARTIFICIALLY SET OFF, BUT PEAK NONTHELESS) is coming sooner than you think.
GEORGE W could go over there and convert the Ayatollahs to his religion that teaches love for mankind and not hurting anyone, instead of trying to hurt everyone.
Uh, wait a minute...
I wouldn't cross my fingers.
You know, I understand people's denial, denial and doubt.
Peak Oil is exactly like your going to the doctor and finding out that you have Diabeties and you must immediately make serious eternal changes in your eating and living habits, or you will die.
New diabetics are always in Denial and shock for some months.
That is what peak oil is like, a new unsolvable problem we have to live with.
We must be kind to people who figure this out and worry at first, Denial is good protection for their minds till they can think about it.
Denial saves you until you can adjust.
Peak is a real shock.
Some people stay in denial, that is ok too, at least they are happy.
It does absolutely no good to anyone who has cancer when they talk about retirement and grabbing them by the shoulders and shaking them screaming"BUT YOUR GOING TO DIE!"
Likewise, we shouldn't be trying to convince those who refuse to be convinced, they are blessed with a blindness and don't worry about it.
Myself, I like to know whats coming so I can prepare, but that doesn't mean we should force others to believe. that isn't going to do any good./
so I hope those who read this see peak oil may be sooner than you think.
Peak actually helped my life, I am focusing to what is important now instead of playing around with useless wastes of time, life and time is to precious now to waste any time.
Long ago I accepted what my father told me, Live each day to the fullest, and let others be the object of your actions and help, and forget your selfish goals for just today. See who you can help, see who you can cheerup and at the end of the day see where I went wrong and where I can do better.
Last edited by grabby on Mon 06 Feb 2006, 12:56:23, edited 14 times in total.
-
grabby - Heavy Crude
- Posts: 1291
- Joined: Tue 08 Nov 2005, 04:00:00
