[gs]

even if you isolate individually, you would prefer to do this inside a community which isolates itself. First because there would be just fewer viruses around in your surroundings and
Second, if you need something or have to go out, you still have much better chances of staying noninfected. What if you become sick of some non-H5N1 desease and need a doctor ? What id you need or want to trade some goods ? Also, some (protected) people will continue to work because they need the money and because the community needs some essential services.

[gs]

g33, you can also answer by email to sterten@aol.com or send PM, if you want to avoid public attention.

[gg3]

Heinekin, the critical difference is between a small rural group of self-selected individuals in an out-of-the-way place, and a large urban mass that's been herded into a heap. And as for terrorists seeking to experiment with bioweapons, the probability of them finding a small group in the woods is infinitesimally small compared to doing their dirtywork in a large city.

Re. GS: I'm one of the co-founders. Two of the members are on this BBS. The others are in our larger circle of friends. Total of 8 - 10 adults and three kids at present. We do not have land at present but are conducting thorough research of areas in northern California. We presently live in the East Bay, i.e. Oakland and Berkeley, across from San Francisco (where are you?).

Open to new members: Yes, people with relevant skills and/or investment capital, who are accepted based on a consensus of existing members. Email me via the private message function on this BBS.

Lists of other groups: do a keyword search for "intentional community" or "sustainable community." However most such groups are further toward the "communal" end of the spectrum whereas we're more individualistic, more like an eco-village than an extended family. For example we expect separate households for individuals and families, and shared utility infrastructure. We are all friends, and we are pretty diverse; we don't have a central ideology other than practical sustainability.

In contact with other groups: Not particularly; we are quite aware of other groups however. I was part of the founding group for Dancing Rabbit, but disengaged when they chose Missouri, due to anti-gay Jim Crow laws there and the hot/humid climate.

When people enter: This is a longterm sustainability plan, so we enter when we get the land and build houses & infrastructure. This is not just a preparedness plan for a specific emergency, but a long-term choice for living & working.

Medical services: One of the skill-sets we're seeking, or can be engaged via the local external economy.

Electricity and water: No, we're going to dehydrate in the dark:-). Yes, of course we'll have electricity and water! A few of us are eco-industrial geeks who can design all of that easily. And telephones via a community exchange, and highspeed internet access via a community-wide LAN, since these are things some of us presently do for a living. Think in terms of "sustainable comfort," i.e. all the basics, without excess.

Work: Primarily via local business activity in our respective areas of skill. Including the transplant of our present business entities engaged in various aspects of information technology. Some members may prefer to take jobs as employees of other companies.

Work within the community will mostly be non-monetary in nature because we're not large enough to support an internal monetized economy. Think in terms of "household chores on a farm." Someone maintains the garden, someone maintains the electrical systems, etc.

In the event of pandemic, we close the gate and everyone stays home for six months or however long, living on stockpiled provisions and financial savings. We'll see it coming via news reports, i.e. the first sign of a human-to-human outbreak overseas. At present we are not too concerned with transmission via wild bird droppings, though if this is an issue we can simply stay in our houses as much as possible, and take the usual precautions when coming in from any outside activities.

Quarantine homes for newcomers: Purpose-built quarantine homes are expensive. However, appropriate accommodations could be improvised from a guest cottage and other community buildings if need be. On the other hand, I seriously doubt we're going to accept people coming in at the last minute due to a) obvious infection risks and b) impact on provisions. Friends and family members who want to come in as temporary guests will have to do so on a set timeline ahead of the pandemic reaching the US.

Disinfecting stations: I've worked out a detailed protocol for that. Basically, if you have to go into the nearby town, you wear clothes that can be washed with bleach when you return, and you immediately shower, change clothes, etc. and stay in isolation for however-many days. In all probability, outside-duty would rotate among volunteers so no one person gets stuck living in isolation all the time between trips to town.

Protect the borders: The ususal combination of minimizing visibility, having good intel, having a reasonable but not excessive physical defense capability, and having good relations with local law enforcement. Specific details are available to members.

Disinfecting incoming goods: Postal mail gets left under the sun for a day (solar UV is a great sterilizer), non-perishable items ditto, perishable items (e.g. a gallon container of milk) wiped down with bleach solution, etc. This is a simple technical issue, and far less costly & involved than the issue of isolating people who've been to town.

Really, most of the technical issues associated with isolation from pandemic, are easily solved. And the rest of the technical issues around operating in a post peak oil scenario are also easily solved. The issues we're concerned with at present are raising money and completing our location research, and then dealing with issues related to building. Forming a legal business entity to own the land and suchlike, is easy. Setting up bylaws and internal agreements among members, is easy. The tough part is the economics of the startup phase, but that can be solved with a couple of members who have the means to invest in the project.

[Heineken]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gs', 'e')ven if you isolate individually, you would prefer to do this
inside a community which isolates itself.
First because there would be just fewer viruses around in your surroundings and
Second, if you need something or have to go out, you still have much
better chances of staying noninfected.
What if you become sick of some non-H5N1 desease and need
a doctor ? What id you need or want to trade some goods ?
Also, some (protected) people will continue to work because
they need the money and because the community needs
some essential services.

[gs]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')einekin, the critical difference is between a small rural group of self-selected individuals in an out-of-the-way place, and a large urban mass that's been herded into a heap. And as for terrorists seeking to experiment with bioweapons, the probability of them finding a small group in the woods is infinitesimally small compared to doing their dirtywork in a large city.

[gg3]

Re. GS:

People throwing things over the fence: not likely, again that sounds like a deliberate bioterror scenario, and that's so improbable it's not worth considering.

Cats, mice, beetles: It's not realistic to put the place under a perspex dome. Local fauna carries disease in normal times, including some things that are relatively easily transmitted via e.g. contamination of food supply. Normal rural sanitation measures are sufficient to deal with these risks.

Germany: You can try organizing something there, I don't know anything about relevant conditions for intentional community in other countries.

Land & houses immediately: No, there is no such thing as "immediately" when talking about a longterm plan that has business planning elements and land use planning elements and all the rest of it. As I've said before, this is not a panic/bug-out situation, but a long-term plan for sustainable living & working.

Groups specifically directed toward fighting the pandemic: Probably, but we believe it's prudent to plan for a wider range of contingencies.

Nothing for pandemic isolation: No group of this type can afford to build an intensive-care unit for however-many-people. Nor is it realistic to put the place under a perspex dome. Reasonable prudence & precautions can be taken and will.

Guaranteed to work: Nothing is guaranteed to do anything. I get the sense you're seeking a level of certainty that's not obtainable.

Outside the community, risk of infection: As I said, we have plans and procedures for that.

Airport nearby: not where we're looking to build. Real estate near airports is notoriously expensive since it's in high demand for business uses.

Poultry: Probably yes, and with appropriate precautions. That's a technical issue easily solved without excessive cost. Or in a worst case scenario the (rather small) flock gets culled and landfilled and we make do without chicken.

Fence to keep animals out: Also not realistic. Cats? Ha, what about burrowing animals? That's not a fence, that's a miniature version of the Great Wall of China, with an awful lot of expensive concrete. And it also creates a notable attractor for any wandering troublemakers: it says "look here, something interesting!" which is poor security planning.

Six months is a long time: Yeah, so what? That's a human software issue, people find ways to entertain themselves.

Don't know what peak oil is: Then you should find out, and you've come to the right place.

Yes we want to go there even if there's not a pandemic. We want to live sustainably because sometime during our lifetimes there won't be any choice about that. Think of voluntaring for the military rather than waiting to be drafted: at least you can exercise some choice about how and when to serve.

Only buy an option: Another case of "not realistic." No such thing as instant houses and instant farms and instant infrastructure.

Common medications: obviously.

---

I think from this point forward I'm going to confine my lengthy replies to cases where there is a potential of practical interest, i.e. people who are likely to be interested in joining up or working with us in some specific way.

[gs]

>Re. GS:
>
>People throwing
>things over the fence: not likely, again that sounds like a deliberate
>bioterror scenario, and that's so improbable it's not worth considering.

People might threaten to throw some shit over the fence when you
won't let them in.
Or some of your kids want something from their friends outside
which their parents did forbid.
Lots of possibilities.

>Cats, mice, beetles: It's not realistic to put the place
>under a perspex dome. Local fauna carries disease in normal times,
> including some things that are relatively easily transmitted
>via e.g. contamination of food supply. Normal rural sanitation
>measures are sufficient to deal with these risks.

how ? Won't that make the fence rather expensive ?

>Germany:
>You can try organizing something there, I don't know anything
>about relevant conditions for intentional community in other countries.
>
>
>Land & houses immediately: No, there is no such thing as
>"immediately" when talking about a longterm plan that has business
>planning elements and land use planning elements and all the rest
>of it. As I've said before, this is not a panic/bug-out situation,
> but a long-term plan for sustainable living & working.

so it has nothing to do with panflu at all ?
Sorry then. Maybe I shouldn't have answered in the first place.

>Groups
>specifically directed toward fighting the pandemic: Probably,
>but we believe it's prudent to plan for a wider range of contingencies.
>
>
>Nothing for pandemic isolation: No group of this type can
>afford to build an intensive-care unit for however-many-people.

not necessary. The idea is to keep the virus out.
No hospital will be available anyway, when the pandemic is severe.
Even outside the community. You just have to be prepared for
the common medical problems.

> Nor is it realistic to put the place under a perspex dome. Reasonable
>prudence & precautions can be taken and will.

couldn't figure out, what a "perspex dome" is.

>Guaranteed to
>work: Nothing is guaranteed to do anything. I get the sense you'
>re seeking a level of certainty that's not obtainable.

OK, then give an estimate how much that is expected to increase
you life-expectancy should the panflu hit.

>Outside
>the community, risk of infection: As I said, we have plans and
>procedures for that.
>
>Airport nearby: not where we're looking
>to build. Real estate near airports is notoriously expensive since
>it's in high demand for business uses.
>
>Poultry: Probably yes,
> and with appropriate precautions. That's a technical issue easily
>solved without excessive cost. Or in a worst case scenario the
>(rather small) flock gets culled and landfilled and we make do
>without chicken.
>
>Fence to keep animals out: Also not realistic.
> Cats? Ha, what about burrowing animals? That's not a fence, that'
>s a miniature version of the Great Wall of China, with an awful
>lot of expensive concrete. And it also creates a notable attractor
>for any wandering troublemakers: it says "look here, something
>interesting!" which is poor security planning.

this "look there" will be replaced by a "beware" in a pandemic.
Make a big sign "Quarantine" on your fence !

>Six months
>is a long time: Yeah, so what? That's a human software issue,
>people find ways to entertain themselves.
>
>Don't know what
>peak oil is: Then you should find out, and you've come to the
>right place.
>
>Yes we want to go there even if there's not a
>pandemic. We want to live sustainably because sometime during
>our lifetimes there won't be any choice about that. Think of voluntaring
>for the military rather than waiting to be drafted: at least you
>can exercise some choice about how and when to serve.
>
>Only
>buy an option: Another case of "not realistic." No such thing
>as instant houses and instant farms and instant infrastructure.

build the basics, store the food and the other supply but keep the
place being used by the owner until the panflu hits.
(when he probably won't be able to use it anyway)
There are lots of people who consider this very unlikely, so they
should happily sell that option for cheap.

>Common medications: obviously.

>I think from this point forward I'm going to confine my lengthy
>replies to cases where there is a potential of practical interest,
> i.e. people who are likely to be interested in joining up or working
> with us in some specific way.

I assume that means you are not so much interested to improve
the concept and discuss about it. That's OK.
Maybe others will find this, so I post my reply nevertheless.

[horsestoaster]

It's true since I learned about PO I am even more cynical about the government(national & local).But suddenly the government knows nearly EXACTLY when this thing is gonna hit the US of A?Hmm do we need a die off of our citizenry to make the economy get a little kickstart and use less resources and also empower the government even further?A year ago I was telling folks about the possible looming pandemic.Just lotsa stares met my alarm.Same with PO.They keep changing the whitewash writing on the side of the barn and all the good little work horses don't seem to notice...

{Thread moved to Open Discussion forum since I can't figure out what it has to do with the Environment - TheTurtle}

[uNkNowN ElEmEnt]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('horsestoaster', '.')..But suddenly the government knows nearly EXACTLY when this thing is gonna hit the US of A?Hmm do we need a die off of our citizenry to make the economy get a little kickstart and use less resources and also empower the government even further? ...

[Jake_old]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')specially when you have a president whose ratings are in the crapper, who doesn't want to give up power because his agenda is going so well

[Ludi]

The guvmint plans martial law to control the spread of bird flu, so, well, it could certainly come in handy for them to announce the pandemic has arrived. Even without that drastic step, just think how much inconvenient information re: Iraq, etc could be ignored during the flurry of a pandemic.

[Roccland]

Link

Not sure if this has been posted...Mods please merge if already in a thread.

[ReverseEngineer]

Has anyone noticed here the simultaneous upwelling of political disruptions from Bolivia to Venezuela, from Georgia to Pakistan, from our own streets at the RNC? The board is becoming overun with a new thread about some HUGE crisis somewhere else in the world every day. They are popping up like Buboes on a Plague Victim.

Meanwhile, in the world of finance the buboes are popping up just as fast, if not faster. First it was just Bear Stearns; now every day a newer and bigger financial Giant is crumbling, from Fannie & Freddie to Lehman and WaMu in one weekend, with AIG and Merrill Lynch not far behind.

In the natural world, buboes like Ike & Gustav come hurtling out of the Atlantic into the GOM to infect the entire oil infrastructure, and at the same time the entirety of the Polar Ice Cap disintegrates in the course of the summer, releasing who knows how much methane into the atmosphere from clathrates.

Sense a pattern here? You need a sledgehammer over your head to get how connected all these things are? We reached a Tipping Point in 2008, and the WHOLE house of cards is coming tumbling down, from political structures to economic structures to the underpinning of the environment. The society and its underpinnings are falling apart at the core.

I have been accused on the board of being the "Most Doomerish" member. That is quite an honor considering the Doom that has been forecast here for years by members like MonteQuest, with whom I do not agree on many things, but he certainly was prescient in his analysis of the problems.

At this point however, you don't need to be a Nostradamus to see what is right in front of your face, to feel what is whacking you over the head with a sledgehammer. Every facet of society is spinning out of control, at a pace beyond belief these days. Yet still, people here on the board deny forecasts of Doom, Dodging Bullets all the time. "Thank God, Gustav was a Non-Event". HEY! This is not one Bullet here! Its a HAILSTORM of bullets, and sorry you cannot dodge them all, you are going to get hit by one of them.

We are experiencing the Plague on a Grand Scale, I knew it when I saw all Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse at my front door one day on the Internet. Famine, Plague, War & Death on a Worldwide level, not in just one place; not just one civilization falling while another rises. They ALL are falling, SIMULTANEOUSLY.

What do you DO when the Plague comes to your neighborhood? First you must RUN AWAY. RUN AWAY FAST. Then you must protect yourself from Plague Infected people, we call them Zombies here. Then you must burn all structures and all things which might be infected with the Plague. The Plague here in this case being Greed, Capitalism, the Market, Religion and all the rest of the concepts which have brought us into the mess we are in today.

I am not one of those here who thinks all human life on earth will be extinguished, not even by the melting of the Polar Icecap. So in this sense I am NOT the Most Doomerish member of the board. I do not right now think we necessarily are witnessing a Mass Extinction event. If we are, there is nothing can be done about it. If we are not, then in order to survive the Plague, first you must escape its path, then you must eradicate the infection of greed and selfishness. Make it your goal to escape first, and then Save as Many as You Can. That is the only way we can come out of this as a People. NObody comes out Alive? NO! Somebody gets left standing, and it will be those who work together as a community to do so.

[Cashmere]

I can assure you that you're not the biggest doomer on this board, Ms. Merry Sunshine up his ass.

[mrobert]

Ever thought that this was going on in the last 2000 years, except that you now have the media to exagerate everything to raise it's ratings?

For example, my country was under "extremely heavy floods" a couple of times in the past year, yet I saw nothing unusual. Life went on normally, no disruptions occured, I haven't seen any water or any problems.

Do you think hurricanes weren't around for hundreds of years?

Stop watching the media like I did. You will get the perfect picture of the real world.

[ReverseEngineer]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mrobert', 'E')ver thought that this was going on in the last 2000 years, except that you now have the media to exagerate everything to raise it's ratings?

[Cashmere]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', 'I')n any event, I haven't lived through the last 2000 years, only the last 50. In that 50 years, I can say with assurance I never saw Flash Points at every corner of the globe at the same time, I never saw the largest Wall Street firms teetering on the edge of collapse, I never saw half the state of TX without power, I never saw Cuba and Haiti basically levelled by two hurricanes in a row, I never saw 97% of the refinery capacity of the Gulf all shut down at the same time, I never saw somebody paddle a Kayak to the North Pole, and I CERTAINLY never ran into as many people who tell me "this is all NORMAL, its been going on for 2000 years" as I do here.

[ReverseEngineer]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cashmere', 'T')here's no doubt, world volatility is the highest it's been since the Nazis rise to power.

[CarlosFerreira]

It's never a good thread when the Z word, as VMarcHart puts it (cheers!) pops up at the first post. One of the bad things of discussing these matters is that, when you try to argue a differen position, you're on of the Z's.

We are, and it's been acknowledged in the media, in the middle of a global systemic crisis. We have enjoyed a time of generalized (if not quite "fair") expansion, and we now face a crisis that has economic, social and (for the first time) environmental components. We may be indeed approaching a tipping point. But what comes out of it, when it tips, is not a given result. Doomerish members seem to overlook that nagging system property: the end result is more dependent of the process than of the starting point. You can start from the same point and reach radically different results, and different starting points may see you achieving the same result.

So, no RUN AWAY. There's nowhere to run away to. You don't run away from problems, you face them and try to understand what you can make out of them, out of what you have. Opportunities and threats lie along the way, but that's just the way our world is built. We'll make it - somewhere, somehow. By the way: we all might want to implement Godwin's Law at this forum. Seriously, it's getting tiresome.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')odwin's Law (also known as Godwin's Rule of Nazi Analogies) is an adage formulated by Mike Godwin in 1990. The law states: "As a Usenet discussion grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving Nazis or Hitler approaches one." --snip-- Although in one of its early forms Godwin's Law referred specifically to Usenet newsgroup discussions, the law is now applied to any threaded online discussion: electronic mailing lists, message boards, chat rooms, and more recently blog comment threads and wiki talk pages.