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THE Transportation Infrastructure Thread (merged)

A forum for discussion of regional topics including oil depletion but also government, society, and the future.

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Tue 19 Jul 2005, 14:23:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FatherOfTwo', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'F')atherofTwo,You chose to dismiss this report out of hand. That is your right. The infrastructure has a grade of D with a cost of 1.6 trillion over 5 years just to bring it to a C, much less expand it.
You cannot focus on just one aspect (the grid) and make the case that there is no physical obstacles to expanding the grid in isolation.
This report makes it quite clear: We don't have the money or time to repair and maintain what we have, much less build anything new to prepare for or mitigate peak oil.

I'm not dismissing it out of hand. (maybe my posts seem like I am, but I assure you I am not.)
Yes, of course, expanding the grid can't be done in isolation. But as peak oil hits, and as we are forced to make wiser choices about where energy is allocated, I think the grid is one area that will be called upon, there will be little other alternatives. Whatever takes to expand the grid it’ll be done. It’ll be a major effort, and it may not be a resounding success, but I still haven’t seen any fatal problems or weaknesses preventing a rejuvenation.

FatherOfTwo...
We need 1.6 trillion to bring us up to a C in the next 5 years.
Ignoring expanded airways and other illogical investments, we can get that number down to 1 trillion. However, if you want to bring us up to a B or an A (which would probably be required to have a nuclear economy) we will need closer to 2 trillion or more.
That means a budget the size of the Pentagon every year for 5 years. We also have a budget deficit the size of the Pentagon budget.
So the US must figure out a way to raise taxes to the tune of 2 Pentagons. That would kill the economy. Granted some jobs would be created by hiring electricians and construction workers to rebuild our roads/trains/dams/etc. But the overall damage caused by a tax hike of that magnitude...
Interestingly, 2 Pentagons equals roughly the amount of revenue generated by the income tax. Are we planning on doubling the income tax here??

Or we could just cut Medicare out of the budget completely. Actually, we would have to cut out both Medicare and Medicaid entirely to match the shortfall.
And during this time, the economy will probably not be growing as fast as federal expenditures. This will add to the shortfall.
Don't forget that higher energy prices will cut demand, less gas taxes to pay for the roads.
And a recession would further cut tax revenue AND increase unemployment expenditures.
And if you destroy the economy in the process of creating a new economy...it's a waste.
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Unread postby zed » Thu 21 Jul 2005, 02:15:11

Well as an "end user" of infrastructure I don't have too many complaints. Compared to much of the world, I'd say the US' infrastructure is in good shape. My personal opinion is that a low grade like "D" should be reserved for things that are failing regularly and inconveniencing users. An example might be the Iraq power grid that (last I heard) shuts off for much of the day. Of course much of the world contains infrastructure in this category.
With that said, I don't think A grades are warranted for any of those categories - so much of the US infrastructure is 30+ years old and maintenance is a huge issue. The sectors where I think they understate the situation are rail and mass transit.

I would rate rail a "D-" because passenger rail has been effectively destroyed thoughout most of the country. Similarly for rail in general - the US rail system has been reduced to a system of main lines that cut off many communities from access altogether. Rusting abandoned lines are visible everywhere, including many that have been pulled up or turned into "rail trails". In effect, the rail system is failing to do what it should do, what it does in other industrialized countries, and what it did in the USA 60+ years ago.
Mass transit would get a "D" in my opinion. While some major cities have very good mass transit systems, most cities have poorly conceived development and therefore poor transit systems. Outside of vibrant core urban areas, I can't think of a single place I've visited in the USA where it was reasonable to run errands, commute to work, and access inter-city transit using mass transit. Mass transit is failing to serve most of the USA, and has degenerated significantly from what it was 60 years ago.
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Unread postby FatherOfTwo » Thu 21 Jul 2005, 19:26:37

Found out a couple of interesting tidbits today at work in relation to electricity generation and grid expansion.

Did you know that the overwhelming percentage of heat generated at generation plants is just vented out to the air? It’s another example of the sheer waste that could be captured for useful purposes (eg. heating people’s houses in the winter.) Maybe the old style water radiators will make a comeback! (I’m only half serious, but you never know)

More interestingly, as demands on the grid increases, two things have to happen. You build the generating plant (duh) and if necessary you build the transmission lines (duh). But wait! What about the money needed! Yes, it’ll take money, but the way things have been done in the past doesn’t mean they must continue to be done that way. In today’s world a lot of the existing generation is not close to existing population centers, thus the transmission piece of the pie is much bigger and more complex than it need be. If the generating plants are built closer to the source of demand, the transmission requirements drop significantly. Think of a nuclear power plant on the outer edges of the major population centers. Not possible in todays NIMBY dominated world you decry! Ah yes, it is true, but we’re talking about a peak oil dominated world here… something that can easily be overruled by the stroke of the government's pen.
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Re: The Great Living Infrastructure Change

Unread postby HonestPessimist » Sun 04 Sep 2005, 12:43:20

Do anyone think our civilized, modern society is going too fast with new developments and ideas from technology, science and social progressivism?
Computer CPUs must be faster and faster. Cars and trucks must be faster. Deliveries must be faster. New ideas and concepts to make everything more efficient and faster.
Faster, faster, baby! Kill, kill! We don't need time-wasting. I wanted it now. You wanted it now. Everyone wanted it NOW.
And oil is being processed, burned, refined and used to satisfy such timely demands by our civilized, modern society being fast-tracked to the future.
We need to slow down and put a brake on fast demands and faster needs. :(
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America's crumbling infrastructure...

Unread postby AmericanEmpire » Fri 25 Nov 2005, 19:47:27

They ran a story on the news about the sad state that many of our roads and bridges are in.
Course when you know we are living in a collapsing civilization it doesn't suprise you. Its like more confirmation of what you know to be true.
And yet all the sheeple around you fail to see it. We can't even maintain what we got now. 8O
They were talking bout how much it was gonna cost to fix all the roads. There won't be much use to fix them will less road traffic though. :lol:
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Re: America's crumbling infrastructure...

Unread postby Specop_007 » Sat 26 Nov 2005, 01:09:49

Missouri's roads (Especially in the Kansas City area) SUCK. They are bar none the worst I have ever driven on.
Overland Parks roads are quite nice. Nebraska has the nicest interstate (I-80) I have ever driven on.
Compare taxes on Kansas City, Mo, Overland Park, Ks and Nebraska.
You'll see an interesting relation. The more you pay in taxes, the nicer your infrastructure.
How much do you want to pay today?
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Re: America's crumbling infrastructure...

Unread postby Omnitir » Sat 26 Nov 2005, 01:30:01

You guys should check out the roads in Australia. Probably the worst roads in the developed world. It’s no wonder so many people have 4x4’s (SUV’s) here.

The problem with modern civilisation, is nothing is built to last. Ancient Rome made roads to last thousands of years. We are lucky to get a decade out of today's roads.
"Mother Nature is a psychopathic bitch, and she is out to get you. You have to adapt, change or die." - Tihamer Toth-Fejel, nanotech researcher/engineer.
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Re: America's crumbling infrastructure...

Unread postby PenultimateManStanding » Sat 26 Nov 2005, 01:45:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Omnitir', 'T')he problem with modern civilisation, is nothing is built to last. Ancient Rome made roads to last thousands of years. We are lucky to get a decade out of today's roads.
We have no respect for the past and no regard for the future. Our age is The Age Of Conceit.
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Re: America's crumbling infrastructure...

Unread postby Specop_007 » Sat 26 Nov 2005, 01:59:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Omnitir', 'T')he problem with modern civilisation, is nothing is built to last. Ancient Rome made roads to last thousands of years. We are lucky to get a decade out of today's roads.
We have no respect for the past and no regard for the future. Our age is The Age Of Conceit.

No, ours is the Age of Money.
Money makes the world go 'round, and greed is the axis upon which it spins.
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Re: America's crumbling infrastructure...

Unread postby PenultimateManStanding » Sat 26 Nov 2005, 02:02:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Specop_007', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Omnitir', 'T')he problem with modern civilisation, is nothing is built to last. Ancient Rome made roads to last thousands of years. We are lucky to get a decade out of today's roads.
We have no respect for the past and no regard for the future. Our age is The Age Of Conceit.

No, ours is the Age of Money.
Money makes the world go 'round, and greed is the axis upon which it spins.
I have to disagree with you on this one, spec. Money has greased the wheels of Civilization since the beginning. We are the ones with no connection to the past or the future, because we're so conceited as to think that neither have any meaning or importance.
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THE Infrastructure Thread

Unread postby LadyRuby » Sat 04 Feb 2006, 09:38:43

That's how much we're spending on the wars now.
Just curious how much renewable research and energy infrastructure that could've bought... any thoughts?
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Re: Renewable energy infrastructure for $440 billion?

Unread postby LadyRuby » Sat 04 Feb 2006, 10:20:52

Okay, I'll take a first cut at it:

We could've constructed about 6,800 50MW windfarms. Or about 130 windfarms per state.
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Re: Renewable energy infrastructure for $440 billion?

Unread postby UncoveringTruths » Sat 04 Feb 2006, 11:11:03

I see where your going with this. However one consideration would be that the renewable energy industry is recently producing flat-out from what I understand. In other words they can't keep up with orders. You woud need to ramp up the industry? Correct?
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Re: Renewable energy infrastructure for $440 billion?

Unread postby Andy » Sat 04 Feb 2006, 11:42:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') see where your going with this. However one consideration would be that the renewable energy industry is recently producing flat-out from what I understand. In other words they can't keep up with orders. You woud need to ramp up the industry? Correct?


The industry would indeed need ramping up but her point is that that money should have ben better invested in factories, facilities for ramp up etc. rather than wasted on an essentially futile attempt to maintain the status quo. Geology will have the last word any way no matter how much money is thrown at Iraq.
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Re: Renewable energy infrastructure for $440 billion?

Unread postby Andy » Sat 04 Feb 2006, 11:55:05

That amount of wind by the way, which is deemed technically feasible even on our current grid could displace electricity of an equivalent amount as the current contribution from natural gas (20%) or nuclear (20%) or 2/5ths the contribution from coal (50+ %)

It could buy even more energy efficiency by subsidizing users intallation of efficient refrigerators, insulation, LCD televisions, solar thermal heat, distributed cogeneration etc. etc. possibly to the tune of the magnitude of the present coal contribution to eletricity.
For ionizing radiation “…the human epidemiological evidence establishes—by any reasonable standard of proof—that there is no safe dose or dose-rate…the safe-dose hypothesis is not merely implausible—it is disproven.” Dr. J.W. Gofman 4
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Re: Renewable energy infrastructure for $440 billion?

Unread postby Andy » Sat 04 Feb 2006, 11:59:37

That amount of wind by the way, which is deemed technically feasible even on our current grid could displace electricity of an equivalent amount as the current contribution from natural gas (20%) or nuclear (20%) or 2/5ths the contribution from coal (50+ %)

It could buy even more energy efficiency by subsidizing users intallation of efficient refrigerators, insulation, LCD televisions, solar thermal heat, distributed cogeneration etc. etc. possibly to the tune of the magnitude of the present coal contribution to eletricity.
For ionizing radiation “…the human epidemiological evidence establishes—by any reasonable standard of proof—that there is no safe dose or dose-rate…the safe-dose hypothesis is not merely implausible—it is disproven.” Dr. J.W. Gofman 4
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Re: Renewable energy infrastructure for $440 billion?

Unread postby Gary » Sat 04 Feb 2006, 12:14:02

Spending the $440 billion on renewable energy infrastructure rather than stirring up the hornet's nest of "endless war" seems like such a "no brainer" to me.

We could provide decent paying jobs in an industry oriented to creating a better future with renewables. Instead we are sucking up huge resources to stir up ever more hatred and rage.

Roscoe Bartlett has called for an Apollo-like energy campaign. But now we must try to extract ourselves from Iraq and Afghanistan. Isn't it strange, BTW, that Afghanistan is doing more opium business than ever since the Americans took over?

Bringing this analysis back to the topic at hand: isn't there a larger pattern of deceit and denial here? Is it possible that "we the people" demand war in the false belief that this will make us safe and decure in our comfortable lifestyles?

Renewables bring to mind responsibility and a willingness to face issues related to providing for future generations. Such responsibility is the most unpopular topic is the USA. We would rather perpetuate the notion that our current lifestyle will continue as it is as long as we are alive, and then it is "someone else's problem."
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Re: Renewable energy infrastructure for $440 billion?

Unread postby LadyRuby » Sat 04 Feb 2006, 12:48:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Andy', '.').. her point is that that money should have ben better invested in factories, facilities for ramp up etc. rather than wasted on an essentially futile attempt to maintain the status quo. Geology will have the last word any way no matter how much money is thrown at Iraq.


Yes exactly. And still holds true for future wars. How much do we want to spend (not to mention lives) trying to secure dwindling fossil fuel resources when we could be investing it in ourselves?
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Re: Renewable energy infrastructure for $440 billion?

Unread postby Denny » Sat 04 Feb 2006, 20:05:58

We are dawdling while we re at the cusp of the peak oil connundrum.

All the details which limit capacity right now for alternative energy infrastructure are resolvable by $$, just like the same constraints were solved that way back at the time of WW2. Just think of the massive industrial infrastructure that materialized so quickly then. Such as whole new shipyards capable of putting out naval ships at the rate of one a week, and new aircraft plants pumping out one B24 bomber per hour!

I lived in a small town of 7,000, about 3 square miles in size, that was purposely constructed for munitions production on the outskirts of Toronto, it had 14 separate production plants seved by a railway network, a central steam plant and all the personnel amenites, even schools and banks, that went with it. It went from farmland to this within 20 months.

Wind turbines are cinch by comparison and we are now much more techically advanced than back 60 years ago.

All it takes is the will of government to recognize this situation confronting us today.

It seems that finally George Bush sees the writing on the wall, and I expect that you'll be seeing some massive projects coming soon. When the U.S. makes up its mind, it can do some phenomenal things.
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Re: Renewable energy infrastructure for $440 billion?

Unread postby EndDays » Sat 04 Feb 2006, 20:39:46

Perhaps the goal was never to create any sort of sustainable society.

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