[lsu2001]

Here are some U.S. statistics from 1905, one hundred years ago. What a difference a century makes!

[DISCLAIMER: This forward hasn't been "snoped" yet.]


The average life expectancy in the U.S. was 47 years.

Only 14 percent of homes in the U.S. had a bathtub.

Only 8 percent of homes in the U.S. had a telephone.

A three-minute call from Denver to New York City cost $11.00.

There were only 8,000 cars in the U.S., and only 144 miles of paved roads.

The maximum speed limit in most cities was 10 mph.

Alabama, Mississippi, Iowa, and Tennessee were each more heavily populated than California. With a mere 1.4 million people, California was only the 21st most populous state in the Union.

The tallest structure in the world was the Eiffel Tower.

The average wage in the U.S. was 22 cents per hour.

The average U.S. worker made between $200 and $400 per year.

A competent accountant could expect to earn $2000 per year,
a dentist $2500 per year, a veterinarian between $1500 to $4000 per year, and a mechanical engineer about $5,000 per year.

More than 95 percent of all births in the U.S. took place at home.

Ninety percent of all U.S. doctors had no college education. Instead, they attended so-called medical schools, many of which were condemned in the press and by the government as "sub-standard."

Sugar cost four cents a pound; eggs were fourteen cents a dozen;coffee was fifteen cents a pound.

Most women only washed their hair once a month and used borax or egg yolks for shampoo.

Canada passed a law that prohibited poor people from entering into their country for any reason.

Five leading causes of death in the U.S. were
1. Pneumonia and influenza
2. Tuberculosis
3. Diarrhea
4. Heart disease
5. Stroke

The American Flag had 45 Stars. Arizona, Oklahoma, New Mexico,
Hawaii, and Alaska hadn't been admitted to the Union yet.

The population of Las Vegas, Nevada, was only 30.

Crossword puzzles, canned beer, and iced tea hadn't been popularized yet.

There was no Mother's Day or Father's Day.

Two out of every 10 U.S. adults couldn't read or write.

Only 6 percent of all Americans had graduated from high school.

Marijuana, heroin, and morphine were all available - over the counter
at the local corner drugstores. Back then pharmacist said, "Heroin clears the complexion, gives buoyancy to the mind, regulates the stomach and bowels, and is, in fact, a perfect guardian of health."

Eighteen percent of households in the U.S. had at least one full-time servant or domestic help.

There were about 230 reported murders in the entire U.S.


Imagine what life in the U.S. may be like in another 100 years!

[Windmills]

Except for the first cause of death, the others are easily treatable or preventable. Proper sanitation, vaccination, diet, and exercise can potentially deal with enough health issues to maintain a higher life expectancy than was seen in 1905. I think most people now have a better understanding of microbes and their various effects. Most preventive medicine is cheap. Curing the results of lazy, overindulgent, degenerate lifestyles is what is expensive in medicine. Overall, life expectancies will certainly decrease, but we might also see a wider spread in life spans as some people remember how to care for themselves and others don’t.

It’s quite possible that population may shift back to those areas. They are mostly fertile farming areas with plenty of rainfall. After distancing ourselves from and forgetting about our connection to it, people will be pulled back towards our source of life, good land.

I can certainly see more home births occurring. People will be making many choices between what really are needs and wants, resulting in a resurgence of some industries, goods and services, and the death of many others.

In the end, I think the results will be a strange mix past and present. I don't think history is going to neatly move back and forth through time in a linear fashion.

[Ludi]

No real need to "go back" to whatever way of life. We have a larger knowledge base than folks did then, about things like sanitation and hygiene, water supplies, etc.

If people want to pretend we'll suddenly get stupid overnight, ok, but I don't see why we need to do that.

It's like people keep thinking we'll have to go back to the horse and plow to grow our food. Sure, you can if you want to, but you don't need to.

[shady28]

I really don't think its so much a matter of stupidity, but rather availability.

Consider - how often will you bathe if you do not have running water? How will you brush your teeth if you have no toothpaste, and your toothbrush is falling apart? If there is no soap, how do you wash your hair?

I'm not saying it would go completely back to those kinds of conditions, but if people are mostly concerned with surviving one day to the next then a lot of things we consider important right now might not be so important then. If you haven't eaten for three days, personal hygene might not be real high on your to-do list.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'N')o real need to "go back" to whatever way of life. We have a larger knowledge base than folks did then, about things like sanitation and hygiene, water supplies, etc.

If people want to pretend we'll suddenly get stupid overnight, ok, but I don't see why we need to do that.

It's like people keep thinking we'll have to go back to the horse and plow to grow our food. Sure, you can if you want to, but you don't need to.

[Leanan]

Good point. Some historians think a fuel shortage was at least partly to blame for the Black Death. Contrary to popular belief, medieval peasants liked bathing and being clean. They used to have public bathhouses, like in Japan. But by the 14th century, they were facing all kinds of resource shortages, including firewood. Bathing (at least in winter) became something only the wealthy could afford.

[aahala]

"Two out of every 10 U.S. adults couldn't read or write."

If we are including only English, the number may worse today.

[backstop]

Aahala -

could I persuade you to refashion your message so that it is written in intelligible English ?
Or were you trying to demonstrate your point about US illiteracy ?

regards,

Backstop

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leaf', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f people want to pretend we'll suddenly get stupid overnight, ok, but I don't see why we need to do that.

It's like people keep thinking we'll have to go back to the horse and plow to grow our food. Sure, you can if you want to, but you don't need to.

[Windmills]

It is quite possible that a large number of people actually will become stupid overnight. There are many people in the US that have useless sets of skills and knowledge with regard to a post-peak world. Not knowing how to do anything useful in such an economy does give you the outward appearance of being "stupid." We are all equipped with a great deal of information that allows us to survive in our current niches. When our circumstances change, many people may find themselves terribly uneducated about how to live. I find it amazing the amount of information that people in different socioeconomic systems know, such as those a hundred or two years ago. I keep adding book after book to the list of things that could be very important to know. One could fashion an entire degree of study around post-peak skills and survival knowledge.

So it's not a matter of becoming stupid, but rather having all your knowledge become irrelevant. That is going to depend on the rate of decline of civilization, since that will determine how much time people have to adapt.

[JustinFrankl]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Windmills', 'I')t is quite possible that a large number of people actually will become stupid overnight. There are many people in the US that have useless sets of skills and knowledge with regard to a post-peak world. Not knowing how to do anything useful in such an economy does give you the outward appearance of being "stupid." We are all equipped with a great deal of information that allows us to survive in our current niches. When our circumstances change, many people may find themselves terribly uneducated about how to live. I find it amazing the amount of information that people in different socioeconomic systems know, such as those a hundred or two years ago. I keep adding book after book to the list of things that could be very important to know. One could fashion an entire degree of study around post-peak skills and survival knowledge.

So it's not a matter of becoming stupid, but rather having all your knowledge become irrelevant. That is going to depend on the rate of decline of civilization, since that will determine how much time people have to adapt.

[Michael_Layden]

except for the first cause of death, the others are easily treatable or preventable.


1. Pneumonia and influenza
2. Tuberculosis
3. Diarrhea
4. Heart disease
5. Stroke

I wouldn't be too sure of that resistant strains of TB are starting to make a comeback.
There are also many resistant forms of ecoli and other infections which will probably increase the amount of Diarrhea.
Our Plumbing systems and sewerage systems are not designed for very long lives adn rely greatly on Energy for pumping and treatment. I would think that these would be an early casualty.
In terms of food preservation we will probably have a great deal of spoiling and this will also mean an increase in Infections and food poisoning.
In terms of Heart disease and strokes, I would imagine that the tougher conditions would probably result in the unfit dieing sooner and the fit straining their hearts through a lifetime of hard work.
I think the leading cause of death in the next decade will be suicide as people start to face the grim reality of wasted lives and a future of endless hard work and very little "luxury". A great many people are full sold on their perfect houses, cars and other consumer trinkets.
Don't forget too that very high death rate among the very young do skew these statistics quite a bit. The average life expectancy was 47 but the death rate below 2 was much higher. One child dieing at 2 does bring down the average a great deal!! Don't get too hung up on Statistics

Similarly I think the hard working and frugal children of the 1930s who are hale and hearty now, I think have seriously skewed the average lifetime expectancy tables. From personal observation I have met umpteenth 80-90-100s year olds who are infinitely fitter than their overweight unfit 50-70s year old children who were brough up in times of plenty. I think we are having a temporary blip in the statistics and I would expect life expectancy to drop in the next decade even if everything goes well.


Many of our Antibiotics and other wonder drugs are meeting more and more disease resitant bugs.

Many of the poor man's diseases, i.e TB, Polio, Cholera, Malaria, Dysentry etc etc are getting virtually no investment or research while designer drugs like Viagra and other more lucrative drugs get most of the research.

We take a great deal of modern medicines for granted but a poor starving world knows how deadly these diseases are. I would expect that many illness our grandparents would have consider trival will be scourges to us.

[Schweinshaxe]

It's ment to be ironic (yes I was told so...).

The list has been posted before here at PO.com.

The last "fact" in the list is "There were about 230 reported murders in the entire U.S. "

Do you get it now?

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Windmills', 'I')t is quite possible that a large number of people actually will become stupid overnight. There are many people in the US that have useless sets of skills and knowledge with regard to a post-peak world. Not knowing how to do anything useful in such an economy does give you the outward appearance of being "stupid." We are all equipped with a great deal of information that allows us to survive in our current niches. When our circumstances change, many people may find themselves terribly uneducated about how to live. I find it amazing the amount of information that people in different socioeconomic systems know, such as those a hundred or two years ago. I keep adding book after book to the list of things that could be very important to know. One could fashion an entire degree of study around post-peak skills and survival knowledge.

So it's not a matter of becoming stupid, but rather having all your knowledge become irrelevant. That is going to depend on the rate of decline of civilization, since that will determine how much time people have to adapt.

[Jack]

Edit: made the title more descriptive of the content.

Jack

[lsu2001]

thanks jack, I am new to this board so any help is greatly appreciated.
Tim

[kochevnik]

[galacticsurfer]

I think we will definitely go back to some older ways. This morning I looked around my kitchen and started counting all electrical appliances and got up to over 20 things.

electrical appliance manual alternative
1)Washer scrub board
2)Dryer drying line
3)Freezer cellar
4)Stovetop/oven gas oven/wood stove
5)toaster as above
6)radio/cdplayer singing/guitar/harmonica
7)light no. 1 oil lamp/candle/sleep early
light no. 2 as above
9)battery powered clock/weather station wind up clock/thermometer
10)Water heater for tap wood,coal,etc. pot on stove
11)refrigerator cool room, cellar, ice box
12)juicer hand juicer
13)coffemaker on stove
14)yoghurt maker I make kefir, it does itself
15)digital clock wind up watch
16)fan hand fan
17)pump for water(somewhere below in apartment house) carry water
18)Water cooker on stove
19)egg cooker in pot on stove
20)mobile phone send a letter
21)water meter count pails hauled
I have no microwave oven, no hand mixer or "moulinex".Can anyone beat my list just for the kitchen?

Now that is just one room. Take each item and go back to 1905 and replace it with an alternative manual model. Do this for the whole household then your whole life. We are really dependent on electricity.

I mentioned a few days ago in another post how I think dieoff will be unneeded as people will stop having kids and not live as long due to the coming economic depression thereby reversing the "natural population growth" to a "natural population reduction" on the downside of the oil depletion curve if it is not too severe initially. I talk with my wife and we think maybe rationing of food(how much junk food is sold, ban that too) and fuel and electricity will stave off mass starvation, freezing ,etc. Private cars could simply be banned as an emergency measure and all electricity and oil going only for neccessary activities(cooking, water pumping to households, heating). Electricity could be cut off after a certain time each night to save it. No street lights, curfew imposed for safety on the streets. Buses and bicycles and trains only transport allowed. Diesel powered trucks only for necessary food transport to be slowly replaced by horses or electric vehicles upon availablity. Barges for grain, coal,etc. transport are a great solution in Europe as everywhere there are lots of old waterways from 18th-19th century.

Anyway if the price of a barrel of oil gets to 200-300 USD in 5 years or so such a solution comparable to a war emergency powers within the framework of democracy(and even in nondemocratic countries it will all be the same) would be workable. People would accept it just like after 9/11(and in WWII) people accepted certain things as necessary. There is no need for massive restructuring, panic buying, total breakdown, chaos, cannibalism,etc. You just cannot imagine chaos in Japan or Germany on that scale as the people are too orderly and passive to government. I do not know what will happen in Los Angeles however(ha ha ha).

The German government(where I live) is putting through continual cutbacks, not as the US government pretending everything is normal and making one artificial financial bubble after another(keep the good times rolling). The last German government and this current one just sits there cutting back programs and increasing taxes and the two main parties now have a coalition government and have stopped passing blame for hurting the population. This sort of thing works when the population realizes it is the only way to survive in a world with increasing scarcity. this is the basic model for the future. Germany is ahead of thte curve because energy is scarce and expensive(see wind and solar boom here) and the population is being slowly reduced and is much older already.