When do you think TSWHTF?

by **FossilFool** » Tue 31 Jan 2006, 17:45:11

Just trying to gauge the attitude. I love these polls.

by **Merlin** » Tue 31 Jan 2006, 19:14:02

Anytime I've tried to predict the future I've managed to be wrong. But it is a useful exercise if you are trying to prepare for bad outcomes ahead of time. So, because I *fear* TSWHTF sooner rather than later, I couldn't in good conscience put bad times off until 2010 or later; that would just be wishful thinking and self-deception.

On the other hand TPTB have held things together longer than I expected, so I won't be surprised if Armageddon doesn't happen tomorrow or next month. Just look at the people on this list who expected economic collapse or at least a nuclear attack on Iran last summer.

by **smallpoxgirl** » Tue 31 Jan 2006, 20:16:22

OK...I'll be the cassandra for once.

2012 to coincide with the end of the Maya calander.

by **engulfthemanatee** » Tue 31 Jan 2006, 20:34:28

What exactly do you consider TSHTF? Economic collapse? $5/gal gas? Nuclear war? If we're talking economic collapse, it could very well be this year.

by **satjeet** » Tue 31 Jan 2006, 21:02:50

The Age of Aquarius begins 2011 - finally, we're off the cusp !! -
that sounds right to me. An age of social chaos and Involuntary(!)
enlightenment.

by **eric_b** » Tue 31 Jan 2006, 21:16:44

I'm going to say 2011-2012 also.

Just a gut feeling, though I also had a dream (some time ago) in which
I was reading a paper and the date was 2011. Not a good dream.

by **RonMN** » Tue 31 Jan 2006, 22:08:11

Could be tonight...could be 5 years from now.

I don't see it much longer than 5 years from now

by **MicroHydro** » Wed 01 Feb 2006, 01:51:52

9/11/2001 - the cold blooded murder of 3000 people by the US establishment to jump start the resource wars under a false pretext.

by **ravensburg** » Wed 01 Feb 2006, 02:23:17

Right now its all a matter of perspective I think TSHTF already.

by **pup55** » Wed 01 Feb 2006, 09:13:03

I vote for 1973. It's all been a downhill slide since then.

Here's a graph for you.

[web]http://zfacts.com/p/55.html[/web]

by **ashurbanipal** » Wed 01 Feb 2006, 10:49:50

In one sense, I have to agree with the folks who are saying that we're already deep in it. But I think things will start to get die-off bad around 2012-2015.

by **kmann** » Wed 01 Feb 2006, 11:17:31

You forgot to put Never on your poll.

by **Specop_007** » Wed 01 Feb 2006, 11:20:46

Too soon.
I'm not ready yet!

by **Leanan** » Wed 01 Feb 2006, 11:21:37

I voted for 2010, but I think it will be later than that. Possibly much later. Sadly, I think the most likely outcome is a "catabolic collapse." It may last centuries, as we slowly turn all our resources and capital to waste. Burning poorer and poorer fuel each year, creating more and more pollution, running out of water and topsoil, etc. More and more people falling out of the middle class every day. But the very wealthy will do alright for awhile, in their walled compounds run on solar, wind, nuclear, etc.

by **PenultimateManStanding** » Wed 01 Feb 2006, 11:30:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leanan', 'I') voted for 2010, but I think it will be later than that. Possibly much later. Sadly, I think the most likely outcome is a "catabolic collapse." It may last centuries, as we slowly turn all our resources and capital to waste. Burning poorer and poorer fuel each year, creating more and more pollution, running out of water and topsoil, etc. More and more people falling out of the middle class every day. But the very wealthy will do alright for awhile, in their walled compounds run on solar, wind, nuclear, etc.

by **TommyJefferson** » Wed 01 Feb 2006, 12:04:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leanan', 'M')ore and more people falling out of the middle class every day. But the very wealthy will do alright for awhile, in their walled compounds run on solar, wind, nuclear, etc.

by **PrairieMule** » Wed 01 Feb 2006, 14:06:29

I usually keep this under wraps but my father is a petroleum engineer of note. He is not a CEO but a mid level contractor in Port Harcourt, Nigeria with 40 years of experience in Offshore drilling. I sent him a e-mail with a few point blank questions. I shared the results with a few folks last week, but took out his name so you guys could read it.

Hi Dad,

There is much speculation over the price of gas in the next few months based on the situations in Iran and Nigeria. Any thoughts? I know that I am, like other average middle class americans,are feeling the squeeze from utilities and other products that rely on fuel(Food and Goods). How worse do you think this will get?

Charles

Charles,

The supply of crude oil in the world market is about 85 million barrels per day. The daily demand is also 85 million barrels per day. Every producer is producing at maximum capacity. The supply and demand curves are now crossing, about 4 years ahead of schedule due to a huge increase in demand from China. The price of energy will seasonally fluctuate, but the trend is steadily upward. I would imagine that we will have $100 crude oil and $5 gasoline in the next five years. Plan your life accordingly. I remember my dad was selling natural gas at 3 cents per thousand cubic foot on the Abbie Moore well at Chandler, Oklahoma 50 years ago. Gas was $15 earlier this month, not 3 cents. LNG imports will eventually bring down the price of natural gas some time in the future. Your 4 cylinder Ford Ranger was a good answer to this problem. My 4 cylinder Chevy with standard shift gets 36 mpg.

Life in America will change quite a bit as the price of crude oil continues upward. Agriculture will rise in profitability because people still like to eat. You should learn now how to run these ranches. See you in a few weeks.

Dad

This is dead on to what is being circulated around on this website. Now Its been said that their are 2 ways to tell the quality of the meat on a cow. You can stick your hand up the cows ass or take the butcher's word for it. This is why I don't hang around posts and debate statistics. To me it's moot, not a matter of if but when. I say 3-5 years. I myself am socking $100 a month to start a herd of cattle.

by **Leanan** » Wed 01 Feb 2006, 14:55:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ou may be right, but I do think that the nature of our society, "civilization on steroids" is such that it could fall apart rapidly, practically overnight. I.e., we aren't like previous civilizations that went into slow decline, because our complexity is lightyears beyond anything ever seen before and it absolutely must work to an extremely high degree of efficiency or it won't work at all.

by **TommyJefferson** » Wed 01 Feb 2006, 18:35:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PrairieMule', 'I') usually keep this under wraps but my father is a petroleum engineer of note.

by **PrairieMule** » Wed 01 Feb 2006, 19:25:21

TJ-

I turned on Sci Fi channel last night and THEY LIVE was on, I remembered your tagline and had to watch it again.

Sorry if I brought everyone down earlier. I need to keep him on the QT since I do not want him to loose his job. I'll tell you something else about the oil industry brass. They all know its coming to a end, and they have known it for years. My pop attended a confrence 4-5 years ago and I think it was one of the Top brass of Chevron or Texaco was a key speaker anounced they would soon see the end of the oil age. Digest that Cornucopians...