PeakOil is You
THE F.William Engdahl Thread (merged)
Re: Stable dollar rests on sand - F.William Engdahl
by hull3551 » Mon 14 Nov 2005, 16:49:21
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'S')o, if the gains were illusionary and the apparent wealth of the real economy is a mirage, why does it matter...
You pose many interesting questions. But I think you need to decide what constitutes progress? Never in history has the average person been offered so much debt. Back in the late 90’s mortgages were written on the more credit-worthy buyers. As we all know, this has changed, and any measurement will tell you that the US is living well beyond its means in the form of debt, based upon false wealth.
When this comes crashing down, in one form or another, that no one can tell what the ramifications will be. But I think it will be widespread and significant, as the US even in this time of significant economic growth is still experiencing deficits (both personal and governmental) as well as stagnated wages/revenues. (Although growth is not solely attributable to borrowing, as productivity has inched up and other factors obviously come into play regarding GDP.)
I think we are all exposed to lifestyles well beyond our earnings ability, yet we aspire to them anyway: cars, boats, fancy vacations. Granted, these have all come down in price to make these things a bit more attainable, but it is widely know that we live beyond our means (speaking from the perspective of a US citizen).
But regarding the quality of life, we are generally healthier and live much longer. We have more material goods, own more real estate etc., but we also work more, have less of a safety net, have more stress/responsibilities, less chance for personal opportunity overall,…
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')herefore, we are just paying an overdue debt. How could it have ended otherwise?
I guess the issue here is whether it will be soft and gradual, or sudden and harsh.
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Re: Stable dollar rests on sand - F.William Engdahl
by threadbear » Mon 14 Nov 2005, 19:54:45
Actually Hull, I would argue that Americans are more healthy. They don't sicken and die as they did at the turn of the century from contagious diseases pneumonia and TB, but the obesity and therfore diabetes rate would disqualify them from any measure of good health.
I would suggest that without anti-biotics Americans would be the sickest people on the planet.
I would suggest that without anti-biotics Americans would be the sickest people on the planet.
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Re: Stable dollar rests on sand - F.William Engdahl
by MrBill » Tue 15 Nov 2005, 06:20:03
Well, I think you did put your finger on part of the problem. This whole argument is US-centric. We are always talking about problems in America. The whole debate is about the USA. The value of the dollar. Housing prices in the States. Wal-Mart. Republicans.
It seems that from obesity to SUVs to easy credit, Americans lack the capacity to say, no. Why is that?
If you take statistics in aggregate you will see that savings rates are at historical lows and are actually negative, while personal debt levels are at highs. That disguises the fact that many homeowners do not have mortgages at all. I will have to hunt for the number, but I believe it is 45%? Maybe it is 35%? In any case, any meltdown will affect people in different backgrounds unevenly. The lower-middle class, the poor and those deep in personal debt the most. No one ever held a gun to their heads and told them consume today or else!
If the US consumes 70% of the world's savings than by definition the rest of the world is probably saving quite a bit of their income to GDP? So as we are having a US-concentric argument here, really this is a made in the USA problem. I am glad at least something is still made in the USA?
Just kidding.
However, just because Americans on average save less than they earn, this is a liquidity problem. They are cash poor. That does not mean that the total debt exceeds the value of all assets. At a 60% discount, like when Argentina defaulted on their debts, I would be a huge buyer of American assets - companies, intellectual property, patents, trademarks, banks, white collar workers, etc. At that price the international buyers would be lined-up around the block to buy America on the cheap. If you're going to mortgage your future, you better hope you can make the payments. That is not to suggest that America is not worth anything, anymore than a decade of recessions undermined the real networth of Japan or HK. The price of assets went down, but did not go away. They still have intrinsic value.
Peak Oil is not the biggest problem facing America today. Overweight adults and children, obesity and health related problems such as adult onset diabetes affects more Americans than a recession will. Why do you obsess about conspiracy theories and events that have only a small likelyhood of ever happening, while eating yourselves to death? Really, this is putting the cart before the horse. If you're going to worry about the future, make sure you have one
Japan was able to learn from the oil shocks of the 70's and now consumes less than two thirds the energy per unit of GDP as the G7 average. Why was not America also able to absorb these lessons? I see US politicians flying around the globe time and again asking other countries to voluntarily restrain themselves from producing and exporting to save American jobs. Why do not Americans buy American made goods? It would be a simple solution to your trade deficit and in turn support the US dollar so it does not collapse. If American products are more expensive then this would be an incentive to save. This would create less dependence on imported foreign capital.
Budget deficit and debt got you worried? Why not raise taxes and close tax loopholes. Eliminate the deficit and reduce the debt to GDP ratio. The solutions are easy, but the will is lacking. Instead you're obsessing on Roe vs. Wade for the umpteenth time and electing your politicians based on their views on gay marriage.
Instead of solving your problems and getting on with life you spend all your time ranting and raving that the market does not work, that capital markets are rigged, that finance is all smoke and mirrors and that economists have no idea what they are talking about. All I can say is grow up. Stop blaming all your problems on the rest of the world. Go elect Al Gore or John Kerry or Hillary Clinton if you think they can solve your problems, but they cannot and they will not.
Or as Benjamin Franklin said, 'Laziness travels so slowly that poverty soon overtakes him.'
It seems that from obesity to SUVs to easy credit, Americans lack the capacity to say, no. Why is that?
If you take statistics in aggregate you will see that savings rates are at historical lows and are actually negative, while personal debt levels are at highs. That disguises the fact that many homeowners do not have mortgages at all. I will have to hunt for the number, but I believe it is 45%? Maybe it is 35%? In any case, any meltdown will affect people in different backgrounds unevenly. The lower-middle class, the poor and those deep in personal debt the most. No one ever held a gun to their heads and told them consume today or else!
If the US consumes 70% of the world's savings than by definition the rest of the world is probably saving quite a bit of their income to GDP? So as we are having a US-concentric argument here, really this is a made in the USA problem. I am glad at least something is still made in the USA?
Just kidding.
However, just because Americans on average save less than they earn, this is a liquidity problem. They are cash poor. That does not mean that the total debt exceeds the value of all assets. At a 60% discount, like when Argentina defaulted on their debts, I would be a huge buyer of American assets - companies, intellectual property, patents, trademarks, banks, white collar workers, etc. At that price the international buyers would be lined-up around the block to buy America on the cheap. If you're going to mortgage your future, you better hope you can make the payments. That is not to suggest that America is not worth anything, anymore than a decade of recessions undermined the real networth of Japan or HK. The price of assets went down, but did not go away. They still have intrinsic value.
Peak Oil is not the biggest problem facing America today. Overweight adults and children, obesity and health related problems such as adult onset diabetes affects more Americans than a recession will. Why do you obsess about conspiracy theories and events that have only a small likelyhood of ever happening, while eating yourselves to death? Really, this is putting the cart before the horse. If you're going to worry about the future, make sure you have one
Japan was able to learn from the oil shocks of the 70's and now consumes less than two thirds the energy per unit of GDP as the G7 average. Why was not America also able to absorb these lessons? I see US politicians flying around the globe time and again asking other countries to voluntarily restrain themselves from producing and exporting to save American jobs. Why do not Americans buy American made goods? It would be a simple solution to your trade deficit and in turn support the US dollar so it does not collapse. If American products are more expensive then this would be an incentive to save. This would create less dependence on imported foreign capital.
Budget deficit and debt got you worried? Why not raise taxes and close tax loopholes. Eliminate the deficit and reduce the debt to GDP ratio. The solutions are easy, but the will is lacking. Instead you're obsessing on Roe vs. Wade for the umpteenth time and electing your politicians based on their views on gay marriage.
Instead of solving your problems and getting on with life you spend all your time ranting and raving that the market does not work, that capital markets are rigged, that finance is all smoke and mirrors and that economists have no idea what they are talking about. All I can say is grow up. Stop blaming all your problems on the rest of the world. Go elect Al Gore or John Kerry or Hillary Clinton if you think they can solve your problems, but they cannot and they will not.
Or as Benjamin Franklin said, 'Laziness travels so slowly that poverty soon overtakes him.'
The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
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Re: Stable dollar rests on sand - F.William Engdahl
by hull3551 » Tue 15 Nov 2005, 20:26:31
Good post.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'J')apan was able to learn from the oil shocks of the 70's and now consumes less than two thirds the energy per unit of GDP as the G7 average...
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'J')apan was able to learn from the oil shocks of the 70's and now consumes less than two thirds the energy per unit of GDP as the G7 average...
I always wondered why the US couldn’t embrace this whole idea coupled with PO and create an entirely new industry based upon alternative fuels or renewable resources. This could've created an entirely new industry in the US and could’ve offered a glimmer of hope for the future industry in the US. I see GE is making strides in wind power, but mostly you see these achievements being made Siemens or other European or Asian companies. Meanwhile, the US is kicking and screaming like a two-year-old trying to avoid any and all compliance with any agreements or avoid any deviation from an oil-based society, scaring the US into thinking our economy will collapse. Quite the contrary. This would’ve offered a new economic base for the US once PO hits, and allowing us to maintain the economic might into the 21st century. Meanwhile, GM is going bankrupt, the heads of state maintain their status quo ideas, and the US quickly loses its industrial footing to be replaced by a service economy. Or economic growth being driven by low-tech industries, like housing. </rant>
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'A')ctually Hull, I would argue that Americans are more healthy…
As a function of time, Americans are definitely healthier. Compared to other industrialized nations, I believe we are less healthy. Actually, among the least healthy. I recall reading this from various sources, but I cannot reference them off hand. Obesity, lack of health care, sedentary lifestyles, infant mortality, life expectancy, etc., all causing us to rank pretty badly on a comparative scale.
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hull3551 - Peat
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