[shady28]

A lot of posters, esp last fall, predicted recession in Q1 2006. The numbers for Q4 2005 are in and it looks like we're on track for the prediction of a recession starting Q1 2006 to become a reality :

http://money.cnn.com/2006/01/27/news/ec ... /index.htm

"NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) - The nation's economy grew at its slowest pace in three years in the fourth quarter, according to the government's gross domestic product report Friday, which came in far weaker than economists' forecasts.

The broad measure of the nation's economic activity showed an annual growth rate of 1.1 percent in the fourth quarter, down from the 4.1 percent growth rate in the final reading of third-quarter growth. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had forecast a 2.8 percent growth rate in the fourth quarter.

Still even with the big decline in GDP growth in the quarter, the economy ended up growing at a 3.5 percent rate over the course of the full year, although that also was down from the 4.2 percent growth rate posted for 2004.

Treasury Secretary John Snow tried to downplay the disappointing report on the nation's economic strength."

[JoeW]

I was one of the recession predicters...
History shows that oil price spikes precede recessions by 18 to 36 months. The spike that began in August 2004 (in my opinion) puts us in an 18-month window for recession from now until August 2007.

The inverted yield-curve witnessed twice in recent months is just clue number 2.